Thai economy returns to growth in Q4 on exports, tourism | Tourism

Southeast Asia’s second-largest economic system expands a seasonally adjusted 1.8 p.c in final three months of 2021.

Thailand’s economic system returned to progress within the fourth quarter, rebounding extra rapidly than anticipated, on strong exports and a restoration in home exercise following an easing of coronavirus curbs and as borders reopened to international guests.

The federal government maintained its financial progress outlook at 3.5-4.5 p.c, relying on a restricted impact from the Omicron-driven coronavirus outbreak, stronger home demand, a restoration in tourism and continued help from exports and public funding.

[Is the growth outlook in the line above for 2022?]

In 2021, Thailand’s economic system grew 1.6 p.c, one of many slowest in Southeast Asia, after a 6.1 p.c contraction in 2020.

Southeast Asia’s second-largest economic system expanded a seasonally adjusted 1.8 p.c within the December quarter from the earlier three months, information from the Nationwide Financial and Social Growth Council (NESDC) confirmed, outstripping a forecast 1.4 p.c improve in a Reuters information company ballot, and after a revised seasonally adjusted 0.9 p.c contraction within the third quarter.

The economic system is prone to carry out effectively within the first quarter of this 12 months, primarily based on indicators up to now, however there’s some inflationary strain, NESDC chief Danucha Pichayanan advised a information convention.

“The principle driver will probably be exports and monetary disbursement, with tourism and home consumption including to the help,” he mentioned.

Uneven restoration

From a 12 months earlier, gross home product (GDP) grew 1.9 p.c in October-December, beating a forecast 0.7 p.c rise, and in opposition to a revised 0.2 p.c contraction within the earlier three months.

Exports, a key driver of Thai progress, jumped 21.3 p.c within the December quarter from a 12 months earlier, whereas personal consumption rose 0.3 p.c. There have been about 340,000 international vacationers within the fourth quarter of 2021, up from 45,000 within the earlier three months.

Thailand resumed a quarantine waiver for international vacationers this month to assist revive its very important tourism sector, which usually accounts for about 12 p.c of Thai GDP.

The state planning company anticipated 5.5 million vacationers in 2022, up from a forecast of 5 million in November. However that’s nonetheless effectively beneath 40 million international vacationers in 2019, suggesting the financial restoration will probably be gradual and uneven.

The company maintained its forecast export progress at 4.9 p.c this 12 months.

The federal government has launched billions of {dollars} of aid measures to revive the economic system, whereas the central financial institution has left its key charge unchanged at a file low of 0.50 p.c since Could 2020.