Myanmar Impasse Challenges ASEAN

By Kavi Chongkittavorn 23 February 2022

Whereas the Myanmar quagmire will proceed to dominate ASEAN’s agenda below Cambodia and future chairs, one should not overlook that the present chair should additionally cope with a myriad of challenges throughout all sectors of the grouping’s ongoing cooperation. The much-awaited overseas ministerial retreat final Thursday has as soon as once more proven that ASEAN stays a carefully knit, pragmatic household.

This sentiment emerged after the chair’s press assertion was launched. Although the chair has the prerogative on the ultimate wording, Cambodia invited all members to offer their enter, which resulted in an ASEAN-centered assertion for all to see. The tone is leaning towards “engagement” fairly than “disengagement” with Myanmar. For the primary time in almost a decade, the assertion’s part on Myanmar took up extra space than the South China Sea dispute.

All of the hullabaloo within the first six weeks concerning the chair’s conduct was settled as soon as the ministers met final week. On the retreat, all members expressed assist for the present chair’s efforts together with the headline-making go to by Prime Minister Hun Sen to Myanmar early final month. ASEAN stays united in implementing the 5-Level Consensus.

Final week, in public remarks, Hun Sen appeared pessimistic on his probabilities of persuading the junta to implement ASEAN’s 5-Level Consensus on resolving the disaster in Myanmar, and appeared to have given up—lower than two months into his chairmanship—on making any progress.

RFA quoted him as saying that there are “solely 10 extra months and 14 days left and my obligation [as ASEAN chair] will probably be completed,” and suggesting, “the subsequent chair of ASEAN handle the difficulty.”

Deputy Prime Minister and Overseas Minister Prak Sokhonn, in his capability as ASEAN particular envoy, will go to Myanmar within the second week of March. The result of his go to will probably be a key think about figuring out the longer term standing of the navy junta in Naypyitaw, formally often called the State Administration Council, each regionally and internationally.

On the retreat, the ASEAN members needed to wrestle with Myanmar’s credentials because the quagmire entered its second yr.

Chatting with reporters final week, Singapore Overseas Minister Dr. Vivian Balakrishnan aptly put it that within the coming days there could be so-called “administrative wrinkles” that the ASEAN members must easy out.

There will probably be some paperwork that each one ASEAN members need to signal. The query most frequently requested is, who will signal on behalf of Myanmar?

The primary doc in query is the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC). To ensure that six extra international locations — specifically Denmark, Greece, the Netherlands, Oman, Qatar and United Arab Emirates — to be formally acknowledged as observers, all 10 overseas ministers must signal the Devices of Accessions to finish the method.

ASEAN didn’t invite the regime representatives in earlier conferences however invited solely non-political representatives. Myanmar has to date refused to ship non-political officers.

Some ASEAN members have provide you with the thought of permitting Overseas Minister Wunna Maung Lwin to signal on behalf of Myanmar, which might be adopted by a joint assertion by the remainder of the group which explicitly says the minister’s signature doesn’t confer legitimacy on the SAC and its actions. These are among the delicate points with which ASEAN must come to grips.

Within the subsequent few weeks, the SAC has to point out that it has made concrete and enough progress in implementing the 5PC to deserve additional assist, in any other case there may very well be some dramatic adjustments of coronary heart amongst “outdated” ASEAN members and key dialogue companions. Washington, particularly, is carefully watching the way by which ASEAN is partaking the navy junta. That may very well be one cause why the US retains altering the date of the proposed particular ASEAN-US summit in Washington. Whereas the White Home has confirmed that it’s going to now be held in March, the precise dates have but to be introduced.

Certainly, this summit would enable the remainder of the world to gauge the way forward for SAC and its nemesis, the Nationwide Unity Authorities. The US Congress is urgent Washington to acknowledge the NUG. Simply as Myanmar is the one ASEAN member to not be invited to the Ministerial Discussion board for Indo-Pacific in Paris this week, Myanmar additionally appears to be like set to be the one ASEAN state to not be invited to the summit in DC.

If there’s important progress throughout Prak Sokhonn’s deliberate go to, particularly pertaining to the top of violence, entry to all stakeholders and websites for humanitarian help in addition to a timeline for political dialogue, Myanmar’s standing inside ASEAN might change within the subsequent few months. As well as, this time ASEAN overseas ministers inspired the particular envoy to coordinate carefully with Noeleen Heyzer, the particular envoy of the UN Secretary Basic on Myanmar.

Because the Myanmar stalemate continues, ASEAN will solely face extra dilemmas.

Kavi Chongkittavorn is a veteran journalist on regional affairs.

This text first appeared in The Bangkok Publish.

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