The Dragon Fishes in Myanmar’s Troubled Waters

By Yan Naing 16 March 2022

With the Western world riveted on the Ukraine disaster, the nonetheless simmering cauldron of Myanmar presents good waters for the Chinese language dragon to fish in. Ever for the reason that Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s armed forces) usurped Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s fledgling democratic regime on Feb. 1, 2021, Beijing has deftly made its strikes within the useful resource wealthy nation. On the floor, it has appeared to assist requires a return to democracy, nevertheless it has additionally relished Myanmar’s isolation and the resultant shift into China’s grip. It has armed the Tatmadaw and clandestinely, the insurgent ethnic armed teams too, leading to each remaining depending on Beijing and firmly below its affect.

On the similar time, China has nimbly used ASEAN to venture its personal narratives, with pro-China ASEAN members on each side of the divide vis-a-vis the junta ensconced in Naypyitaw. Whereas Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia have taken a pro-democracy stance and search to restrict the junta’s function in representing Myanmar in ASEAN, China’s long-term ally Cambodia has adopted the alternative place. Consequently, China leaves the nitty gritty of regional diplomatic niceties to its ASEAN lackeys, whereas projecting itself as a accountable superpower merely in regional stability.

Away from the highlight nonetheless, Beijing has moved to consolidate its affect within the strategically necessary neighboring nation. The Ukraine battle now appears to have added to China’s sense of alternative. Earlier this week, the Myanmar navy acquired a cargo of arms and ammunition, together with CH-3 drones, from China. In the meantime, from March 15, a six-month course in Chinese language language will get underway in Kunming for 50 senior members of the Myanmar junta-affiliated Union Solidarity & Growth Get together (USDP). They are going to be schooled within the intricacies of not solely Mandarin but in addition the ideological precepts espoused by the Chinese language Communist Get together. Such initiatives by China are geared toward guaranteeing affect and management in the long term—i.e., even when sooner or later some semblance of an election is held in Myanmar, by cultivating political outfits such because the USDP, Beijing will make sure that its diktat continues to run within the nation.

On the financial entrance, too, Nyapyitaw is more and more dependent upon the behemoth Chinese language financial system. China has poured sources into the China-Myanmar Financial Hall which is able to join China’s Yunnan Province to strategic ports on the Bay of Bengal, similar to Yangon and Mandalay. Not solely will it enhance Chinese language manufacturing in its considerably distant southwestern area, it is going to advance China’s goal of encircling India by means of investments into essential maritime belongings on India’s periphery. Different Chinese language initiatives in the direction of this finish are the funding of the Yangon-Sittwe Highway (which might additionally present the shortest overland path to the Indian Ocean from southern China) and help to the Tatmadaw in constructing a naval base in Sittwe—situated ominously throughout the Bay of Bengal from Kolkata, japanese India’s largest megapolis—enabling any maritime power stationed there to threaten India’s japanese seaboard.

Beijing’s dabbling in Myanmar just isn’t a one-off occasion of nice energy politics. It’s however one in a string of coverage decisions designed to hunt benefit of instability in any nation drifting from the Western world’s narrative in an effort to occupy any financial, navy or political house thus vacated. Whereas the West responds to coups and politico-military crises with outrage and sanctions, Beijing pretends to play alongside, however doesn’t hesitate to concurrently domesticate affect and nook financial sources. In Afghanistan, whereas terrified would-be asylum-seeking Afghans had been falling to their deaths off departing US C-130 Hercules planes, the Chinese language equipment was stealthily encroaching into the mining sector with a watch on the nation’s huge untapped mineral sources—particularly Lithium, a vital useful resource amidst the approaching electrical automotive revolution. Whereas the Russian financial system is battered by sanctions, the Chinese language search to broaden the presence of their UnionPay funds mechanism, within the house left by MasterCard and Visa.

And this phenomenon of Beijing utilizing the shadows to venture its energy just isn’t current both. In the course of the turbulent years of piracy within the Indian Ocean, amid the chaos in Sudan, whereas the world sought to guard the ocean lanes and service provider delivery, the Chinese language made all the correct noises, taking part in joint naval patrols and deploying vessels to patrol these waters. However Beijing additionally used the chance to spend money on Djibouti, establishing a full-fledged naval base close to the Horn of Africa, from the place the PLA Navy can venture its energy not solely within the Indian Ocean, but in addition within the Mediterranean, the Black Sea and the Persian Gulf.

Myanmar will be the newest instance, however these of Sri Lanka, Maldives, Pakistan, Djibouti and Afghanistan ought to function insights into Chinese language technique and habits, which often begins with a political/navy/financial disaster, and culminates in that nation changing into economically beholden and hopelessly indebted to China, dropping its personal company and voice within the worldwide area.

Yan Naing is the pseudonym of an observer on Myanmar affairs.

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