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In his March 16 “message” to the individuals of Kazakhstan, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev reiterated the federal government’s narrative concerning “bloody January” and proposed a wide selection of political reforms. The speech comes just some days shy of the third anniversary of Kazakhstan’s First President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s March 2019 resignation.
The primary portion of the speech was dedicated to laying out the federal government’s narrative as to what occurred in January, when protests about oil costs unfold, intensified, and broadened, after which shockingly exploded into violence. Tokayev repeated feedback about “radicals” and “terrorists,” the involvement of unnamed international forces, whereas additionally making feedback about how “modernization” efforts in recent times had dismayed unnamed influential people. Armed bandits, traitors, and “skilled mercenaries” — enemies each inside and exterior — united to attempt to seize energy, in response to Tokayev.
The president mentioned the “terrorists” fired on civilians so as to solid blame on the federal government (echoing feedback made at a Mazhilis session updating the federal government on the investigation into the January occasions, during which Prosecutor Normal Berik Asylov claimed civilians have been used as “human shields”). Whereas blaming “traitors” amongst navy and safety leaders, Tokayev urged individuals to not let that “tarnish” the popularity of legislation enforcement.
This model of occasions contrasts sharply in some methods with on-the-ground studies from January. For instance, journalists and human rights activists described legislation enforcement as making an attempt to disburse protestors on January 5 in Almaty utilizing rubber bullets, tear gasoline, stun grenades, and in some instances reside rounds. Our understanding of the January occasions will invariably be incomplete if the actions of presidency forces aren’t additionally factored in.
Tokayev’s speech, whereas stressing international involvement, supplied no new proof to help that declare. In line with Kazakh authorities, 19 international residents stay in custody (along with 747 Kazakh residents). Earlier reporting claimed that not less than 14 of these nonetheless detained have been Uzbek residents and as of late February the Uzbek authorities was actively looking for entry and details about these detainees. It’s unknown if these foreigners not too long ago arrived in Kazakhstan or had been dwelling and dealing there.
The straightforward presence of foreigners at a protest in Kazakhstan’s largest metropolis is hardly proof of a international conspiracy to overthrow the federal government. Infamously, a Kyrgyz citizen paraded on state TV shortly after the unrest as having taken cash to return to Almaty and wreak havoc was rapidly uncovered as a jazz musician, not a paid militant. He was launched and solely later started talking concerning the torture that had led to his pressured confession.
Importantly, in his speech Tokayev did acknowledge allegations of torture and within the earlier Mazhilis briefing authorities mentioned they have been investigating greater than 200 such studies. However there appears to be no connecting of the very fact of torture to the chance that these at the moment nonetheless detained and dealing with severe prices have been falsely accused and probably abused, too.
All through the speech, Tokayev hammered on the significance of unity for Kazakhstan. With the unfolding warfare in Ukraine, this theme strikes a vital chord.
The following part of the speech made the case for additional political reforms, figuring out “home stagnation” as a explanation for the January occasions. Tokayev then detailed a litany of proposed reforms concentrating on the presidency, the legislature, the electoral system, and the social gathering system, in addition to modernizing the election course of and strengthening human rights establishments, the media, and civil society. He additionally detailed meant changes to the nation’s “administrative-territorial construction,” efforts to decentralize native authorities, and particular “anti-crisis” measures within the gentle of the Ukraine battle.
Among the many reforms, Tokayev highlighted efforts to shift Kazakhstan away from a “super-presidential” system. To take action, he proposed amongst different issues, banning shut family of the president from positions as “political civil servants” or “govt positions within the quasi-public sector. (Right here, the resignations of some Nazarbayev members of the family and the arrest of others stands out, regardless of official denials of the notion that “elite battle” was on the core of the January violence). Tokayev additionally spoke of abolishing among the “extreme” presidential powers, similar to the flexibility of the manager to dismiss akims.
On a associated word, hopes for direct election of regional and main metropolis akims proceed to be deferred, with Tokayev’s new proposal entailing oblique election of regional akims. Village akims have been immediately elected for the primary time in August 2021, however regional and main metropolis management stays presidentially appointed. Tokayev’s new proposal would see regional akims chosen by the president from not less than two candidates proposed by native legislatures, maslikhats. The maslikhats are dominated by the ruling social gathering, not too long ago renamed Amanat, to which Tokayev belongs. Tokayev additionally proposed that presidents resign from social gathering membership whereas in workplace. By the way, that’s how the presidency and events function in Kyrgyzstan. Tokayev spoke concerning the undesirability of merging social gathering and state buildings, which is arguably the case at current in Kazakhstan. Amanat (beforehand Nur-Otan) holds 76 of 98 elected Mazhilis seats at current.
This in flip highlights the significance of real political competitors, as such reforms are comparatively meaningless with out various selections being accessible. Tokayev proposed in his speech decreasing the the brink for social gathering registration from 20,000 to five,000 signatures. The proposal is constructive information on the floor, however as demonstrated in neighboring Uzbekistan altering the brink doesn’t essentially imply new events shall be registered. Regardless of dropping its threshold for social gathering registration from 40,000 to twenty,000 signatures, Uzbek authorities final 12 months simply dismissed signatures submitted as invalid. No new political events have been capable of register forward of Uzbekistan’s 2021 presidential election, underscoring that reform on paper isn’t the identical as reform in observe.
In Kazakhstan, this may be seen within the much-discussed reforms to the nation’s protest legal guidelines in recent times. In his speech, Tokayev complained about “provocative activists” who thought of it “potential and even mandatory” to violate the reformed protest legislation. He mentioned there can be no extra “concessions” on this level. Kazakh activists have complained that the adjustments to the legislation that went into impact in 2020 — for instance, shifting the system from considered one of requesting permission to notifying authorities of intent as a substitute — have been beauty. Unregistered teams, for instance, can’t legally protest, so any effort to inform authorities is an train is futility. In February, activists staged an unsanctioned rally in Almaty to demand justice for these killed throughout the January unrest and name for punishment of these accountable; organizers have been fined and topic to administrative detention.
In his state of the nation speech, Tokayev made a large number of proposals that acknowledge the need of many in Kazakhstan to see political reform. As all the time, it can take time for such proposals to be transformed into legislation and for observers to see how such legal guidelines are adhered to by the authorities (or creatively dodged as a substitute). Time is of the essence, nonetheless, with the January occasions and the Russian invasion of Ukraine standing as reminders of how shut chaos is.
Tokayev pledged to construct a “New Kazakhstan” and in closing out his speech burdened that amid the “geopolitical storm” Kazakhstan’s strategic course, aimed toward defending sovereignty and territorial integrity, was a very powerful job. Then, after a speech stuffed with “radical” reform proposals, he nonetheless returned to an evergreen authoritarian theme: that now isn’t the time to protest “every time” or “lash out at law enforcement officials doing their responsibility.” In line with Tokayev, “chaotic political reforms” would solely result in a weakening of the state.
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