ASEAN’s Strategy in Myanmar

By Kavi Chongkittavorn 18 March 2022

Earlier than Cambodia’s Deputy Prime Minister and International Minister Prak Sokhonn was endorsed by the Affiliation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) overseas ministers as ASEAN’s particular envoy to Myanmar, he and his superior, Prime Minister Hun Sen, launched into their first try to have interaction with Myanmar.

Simply seven days after Cambodia took the chair of ASEAN for 2022, a 16-member workforce arrived within the Myanmar capital Naypyitaw on January 7. It was headed by Hun Sen and in addition included his two sons, his anointed successor Lieutenant Normal Hun Manet and Hun Mani. Additionally within the delegation was Kao Kim Hourn, Minister Delegate Hooked up to the Prime Minister, who’s tipped to be the following ASEAN Secretary Normal.

Prime Minister Hun Sen seen the go to as an “ice-breaking” mission. Cambodia briefed senior ASEAN officers in regards to the deliberate go to at a January 5 assembly. International minister Prak Sokhonn advised them that because the battle in Myanmar enters a second yr, you will need to re-engage with Naypyitaw to implement ASEAN’s five-point consensus and that requires constructing mutual belief and confidence. Prak Sokhonn described Hun Sen’s go to as an effort to plant a tree for peace and reconciliation. As such, time, persistence and pragmatism are wanted earlier than anybody can harvest the fruit.

Now Prak Sokhonn is the ASEAN particular envoy to Myanmar. His earlier plan of leaving for Naypyitaw on 16 and 17 March was delayed attributable to glitches on the facet of the army regime’s governing physique, the State Administration Council (SAC), which is engaged in intense preventing in Sagaing Area, an space that would be the principal focus of humanitarian help within the close to future. Now that the SAC has agreed to welcome the ASEAN particular envoy workforce to Naypyitaw for a three-day mission on 20-23 March, each side have agreed on their agendas to point out their good religion.

Kao Kim Hourn acknowledged that the particular envoy’s journey would deal with ASEAN solidarity and bringing Myanmar again into the fold, in order that ASEAN would grow to be a 10-member bloc once more. On March 11, Kao Kim Hourn advised a webinar organized by the Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and Peace that Prak Sokhonn has two key targets: first to fulfill and seek the advice of with a number of stakeholders inside Myanmar and, second, to search out methods to hurry up the supply of humanitarian help to the conflict-torn nation.

The SAC has made it clear that the particular envoy should not have interaction in any try to fulfill with the civilian parallel Nationwide Unity Authorities (NUG), which it has labelled a terrorist group. Naypyitaw has constantly reminded ASEAN of the “one-Myanmar coverage” since final October, when ASEAN determined to ask solely senior non-officials to attend ASEAN-related conferences. The SAC determined voluntarily to skip a few of these conferences. An ASEAN diplomat based mostly in Yangon expressed hopes that the regime chief Senior Gen Min Aung Hlaing might attend future ASEAN conferences if “enough progress” has been made as outlined within the five-point consensus agreed by ASEAN final yr.

In the mean time, it’s possible that Prak Sokhonn will be capable to meet with some senior Nationwide League for Democracy (NLD) officers. Nevertheless, ousted State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and President U Win Myint are in detention. With out Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s consent, no senior NLD leaders will dare to signify the NLD. Over 800 NLD members together with senior leaders and chief ministers have been arrested because the coup, and over 600 stay in detention.

There have been rumors circulating amongst Yangon-based diplomats that these NLD officers will embody Vice President Henry Van Thio, Pyithu Hluttaw president, T Khun Myat, former President U Htin Kyaw and his spouse Daw Su Su Lwin.

Nevertheless, President Htin Kyaw and Daw Su Su Lwin are loyal to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the social gathering and will probably be stunning to see them compromise their political integrity.

As well as, political activists together with Ko Ko Gyi shall be assembly with Prak Sokhonn. However a deliberate assembly with ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) who’ve signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Settlement has been cancelled. And Ko Ko Gyi, a former political prisoner and scholar chief within the 1988 pro-democracy rebellion, is at the moment seen as a turncoat and has little help from Myanmar residents.

Prak Sokhonn was initially attributable to meet the Peace Course of Steering Group (PPST), a bunch of ten EAOs, on Monday in Naypyitaw, however the assembly has been cancelled attributable to a good schedule, stated Colonel Khun Okkar, the patron of the Pa-O Nationwide Liberation Group, a PPST member.

There are additionally EAOs representatives who wish to meet up with Prak Sokhonn with out going via the SAC. Sooner or later, when the time is true, Prak Sokhonn should additionally meet with representatives of the NUG. It should take a while earlier than he’ll be capable to obtain the so-called “inclusive” dialogue with all of the stakeholders as acknowledged within the five-point consensus.

ASEAN’s particular envoy hopes that his upcoming go to will be capable to progressively lay the groundwork to facilitate mediation of the dialogue between the events straight involved.

Based on ASEAN diplomatic sources, Prak Sokhonn goals to persuade the SAC to permit sustained and vital humanitarian assist to needy areas, particularly within the north, northwest and southeast of the nation. The sources admitted it could not be a simple activity as humanitarian corridors should be agreed upon, together with the logistical practicalities and the protection of involved businesses. To date, although, the regime has bombed civilians, homes, spiritual buildings, refugee camps and colleges and has blocked humanitarian help.

The diplomatic sources stated that ASEAN’s envoy would recommend the organising of coordinating teams on each side to assist ASEAN’s Coordinating Middle for Humanitarian Help on Catastrophe Administration. At this level, Prak Sokhonn won’t elevate the position of United Nations (UN)-related businesses, realizing the sensitivity of the problem. On the ASEAN ministerial retreat on 17 February, Thailand really helpful that each ASEAN and the UN’s particular envoys work collectively and synergize their applications, which was mirrored within the joint assertion.

Whether or not Prak Sokhonn’s first go to will obtain “enough progress” to maneuver ahead relies on the SAC’s political calculus. However given the toughness some ASEAN member states, like Malaysia, Singapore and Malaysia, show in direction of the Myanmar junta, it’s not a simple job for Cambodia.

Based on Kao Kim Hourn, there shall be extra visits by the particular envoy to Myanmar throughout Cambodia’s time because the ASEAN chair. “Give Cambodia an opportunity,” stated Kao Kim Hourn.

In a while, the particular envoy additionally has plans to have interaction with the particular envoys from the UN, Japan and the European Union, that are key companions of ASEAN.

Prime Minister Hun Sen wish to go away a constructive legacy from his time as ASEAN chair. Because of UN efforts within the Nineties, Hun Sen has been capable of make financial progress for the individuals of Cambodia for almost 4 a long time. He has additionally pursued the trail of everlasting neutrality espoused by Cambodia’s late King Sihanouk.

However Cambodia is thought to be pro-China and shall be intently watched by all of the dialogue companions to see how Hun Sen navigates ASEAN’s relations with nice powers at this pivotal juncture. However Cambodia co-sponsored and voted in favor of the UN Normal Meeting decision condemning the aggression towards Ukraine. This newest transfer could show a brand new diplomatic pragmatism on the a part of Cambodia.

It stays to be seen if Hun Sen will achieve his endeavors to convey Myanmar again into the ASEAN household, and in addition to strengthen the bloc’s significance amid the present disruptive worldwide surroundings.

Kavi Chongkittavorn is a veteran journalist on regional affairs.

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