Ending Ukraine’s tragedy | The Japan Times

WASHINGTON – A brand new Guernica is being painted earlier than our eyes — and this bloody canvas is the handiwork of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is set to cut back Ukraine to rubble.

The barbaric Russian invasion has violently betrayed the civilizational values Putin claimed to espouse in his tendentious lectures on the supposed age-old unity of Russians, Ukrainians and Belorussians.

Putin’s actions recall the worst plunderers in world historical past and disgrace the “Russian Concept” he professes to uphold. The traditional Ukrainian metropolis of Kyiv — like Jerusalem — is a sacred multicultural web site that should be protected, not desecrated, by anybody who really cares about Orthodoxy or about what’s nice and delightful in human civilization.

I’ve been skeptical of NATO’s continued enlargement. However Putin’s unprovoked conflict of aggression towards a rustic that has executed nothing to threaten Russia’s safety is totally unjustified and grotesquely out of proportion to any attainable Russian grievance about being excluded from Western golf equipment.

Furthermore, Putin’s masquerade of an “anti-Nazi” marketing campaign towards Ukraine evokes the darkest Orwellian allegory. In Ukraine, Russian troops are encountering harmless residents who, like themselves, are defending their houses and homeland from overseas assault. Putin’s current raging TV performances have crossed new frontiers of recklessness and paranoia, however the damaging impulse they mirror will not be new. “Sing, O goddess, of the wrath of Achilles,” begins Homer’s Iliad. Within the twentieth century, Sigmund Freud referred to as our penchant for conflict, destruction and self-destruction the Thanatos impulse, or loss of life intuition.

However Putin can be a person of chilly calculation — or, as U.S. President Joe Biden has mentioned, miscalculation — who has lengthy sought to overturn the U.S.-led world order. He shares this aim with different authoritarian leaders, together with in China, who’ve bridled below America’s ethical tutelage, alleged double requirements and monetary sanctions.

A few of these rulers noticed their likelihood when the U.S. suffered the chaos of Donald Trump’s presidency and the half-baked coup aimed toward protecting him in energy, whereas Europe needed to take care of Brexit and authoritarian-leaning governments in Hungary and Poland. These developments, along with America’s unruly and disastrous exit from Afghanistan, bolstered Putin’s perception in Western decline and assist clarify why he determined to invade Ukraine now.

Putin struck with unfettered violence with the goal of demoralizing the Ukrainian aspect. To his dismay, his ways have achieved the alternative outcome, by making it clear to just about all {that a} Ukrainian nation — in all its linguistic, non secular and ethnic range — does exist and is set to battle for its survival. Putin, who fancies himself a discerning pupil of historical past, has didn’t be taught from the expertise of Russian rulers earlier than him who waged disastrous wars with the Ottoman Empire, Britain and France in Crimea and later with Japan within the Far East.

Whether or not Russia can pull again from the abyss will rely largely on Putin’s choices within the coming weeks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pushed for direct talks — and several other key overseas leaders have supplied to mediate. Diplomacy should be given each likelihood to forestall escalation and attain a peace settlement, and nations similar to Turkey and Israel which have typically maintained productive relations with each Moscow and Kyiv are positioned to play the position of “trustworthy dealer.”

In spite of everything, Putin is aware of that sanctions are devastating Russia’s economic system and that his lately introduced anti-U.S. strategic partnership with China is a faithless and shaky marriage of comfort. The Kremlin could mislead the Russian folks, however China and others know the reality and have a tendency to see Russia as a retrograde energy in Eurasia. And shortly 1000’s of Russian moms will discover out that their sons had been in Ukraine and are by no means coming house.

If Putin’s survival intuition can overcome his savage rage, he’ll search to keep away from escalating the battle or making an attempt to occupy a deeply defiant Ukraine with a puppet regime. And if the trail of negotiation is open, topic to an entire cease-fire and withdrawal of invading forces, then a peace settlement ought to steadiness a number of imperatives.

First, Ukraine should survive as an impartial nation and its path to European Union membership must be accelerated. A time-bound time period of neutrality for Ukraine — and an indefinite voluntary suspension of its NATO membership bid — can be a worth price paying for stabilization. As well as, the standing of Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, may very well be negotiable. And a brand new Minsk settlement for federated autonomy for the Donetsk and Luhansk areas in jap Ukraine must be on the desk.

In designing Russia’s eventual exit from sanctions, it’s important to separate the remedy of the Russian folks from the destiny of Putin’s regime. Frozen sovereign belongings must be stored for the longer term fairly than forfeited, thereby retaining leverage and abiding by worldwide regulation. Associated to this, reconstruction in Ukraine would require huge collective worldwide donor efforts, together with on Russia’s half. It might due to this fact be smart to keep away from repeating the error of the Treaty of Versailles after World Warfare I, which imposed long-term punitive reparations obligations on Germany. Putin has ignored historical past; we should always not make the identical mistake.

Reaching such a settlement won’t be straightforward. Most of the phrases shall be deeply distasteful given the human struggling and bodily destruction Russia is inflicting on Ukraine. Within the pursuits of peace and sovereignty, Ukraine must conform to them.

Whereas Putin alone has precipitated Ukraine’s tragedy, all events should be sensible about what a viable endgame might appear to be. No nation might have a rational curiosity in an escalating or wider battle that dangers triggering World Warfare III. Ending the present conflict is a primary step to relighting the lamp of civilization.

Mark Medish served as U.S. Nationwide Safety Council senior director for Russian, Ukrainian, and Eurasian affairs in President Invoice Clinton’s administration. © Undertaking Syndicate, 2022.