Why AAP’s victory in Punjab is a big concern for India

The elections in Bharat convey together with itself new classes. Public behaviour and reactions to political campaigns typically act as an indicator of the general public pulse. Elections not solely change governments, but in addition set discourses and have deep impressions on the approaching generations.

Political events have previously used elections to seep of their agenda and have even gone to the extent of dividing individuals based mostly on their completely different identities. Such divisive exploitation had earlier weakened the spirit of the individuals and left an indelible scar within the minds of the individuals. One prime instance of that is the rise and fall of the Khalistani motion for political features in Punjab and the genocide of Sikhs following the dying of Indira Gandhi. The episode left a fragmented society. The trauma of the episode is felt even at this time. Thus the latest Meeting election outcomes are very important in deciding the destiny of not solely a state however the whole nation.

The outcomes declared on 10 March of the lately concluded elections in 5 states are of nice relevance. That day, the nation witnessed two main phenomena, one is the consolidation of Bharatiya Janata Celebration (BJP) within the states which it dominated; and the second is the Aam Aadmi Celebration (AAP) rising in its place within the Congress-ruled states. Each these phenomena have nationwide significance and are prone to form the politics of the nation within the coming decade. Nevertheless, the rise of the AAP deserves a lot larger scrutiny, particularly as a result of risk it poses to nationwide safety with Punjab being a border state and having a historical past of insurgency. To know this, you will need to hint the historical past of each the AAP in addition to its founder.

The muse of the AAP lies within the India In opposition to Corruption (IAC) motion towards the rampant corruption prevalent within the Congress-led UPA II authorities between 2009 and 2014. Although the occasion was spearheaded by Gandhian Anna Hazare, some members of IAC, together with Arvind Kejriwal determined to type a celebration to battle corruption in politics. The goal was extra in phrases than in motion which was additionally highlighted by the sequence of occasions that adopted later.

An image of Anna Hazare (left) with Arvind Kejriwal through the India In opposition to Corruption motion. AFP

The IAC motion was a significant success and was the bedrock for the formation of the AAP on 26 November 2012. The get together focused the Delhi elections of 2013 as its first main election. It went all out towards the then ruling Congress in Delhi labelling a number of corruption fees towards the then CM of Delhi, Sheila Dikshit. Nevertheless, the AAP beneath Kejriwal after the 2013 election outcomes determined to type the federal government in a coalition with the identical Congress. The AAP didn’t provoke any proceedings towards Sheila Dikshit in its short-lived 49-day authorities earlier than Kejriwal resigned to meet his nationwide ambition within the Lok Sabha elections in 2014.

The IAC motion was a significant success and was the bedrock for the formation of the AAP on 26 November 2012. Picture courtesy: aamaadmiparty.org

The mercurial nature of the founder as effectively the get together was seen from the beginning. Within the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the get together confronted a significant drubbing and it even didn’t win even a single seat in Delhi. Nevertheless, the 2014 drubbing introduced in numerous course corrections by the AAP and Kejriwal. He shifted again the main focus fully to Delhi. Within the 2015 Vidhan Sabha elections, the AAP got here again with a powerful victory and the whole Congress vote-bank nearly shifted to the brand new get together.

From 2015 onwards, the AAP has shifted goalposts. Corruption has now not been the principle agenda. No motion was taken towards Sheila Dikshit; as an alternative, the onus was placed on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Lt governor Najeeb Jung for placing her behind bars. Even the Jan Lokpal Invoice, which shaped the bedrock of Kejriwal’s ballot pitch, took a again seat. The 2020 Delhi elections witnessed Kejriwal coming again to energy within the backdrop of large polarisation brought on as a result of Citizenship (Modification) Act, 2019 and the Congress being decimated with voters selecting AAP over INC.

Outdoors of Delhi, the AAP majorly expanded in small states like Goa, Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and likewise in states like Punjab and Gujarat. The key push for Punjab was seen even earlier than the 2017 Vidhan Sabha elections. The state of affairs in Punjab earlier than the 2017 election signalled a change in regime within the state. This was majorly on account of excessive anti-incumbency towards the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and BJP alliance. Each Congress and AAP had been trying to capitalise on the state of affairs.

Nevertheless, earlier than the elections, the true colors of Kejriwal and AAP got here out within the open. A number of allegations of collusion of the AAP with Khalistani components had been made. There was an enormous uproar when Kejriwal himself stayed in the home of a Khalistani separatist. Even AAP member Gul Panag talked about warning AAP towards flirting with Khalistani components. Nevertheless, the development of AAP assist for the Khalistan agenda didn’t cease even after the 2017 Meeting election. In 2018, AAP MLA and chief of opposition Sukhpal Singh Khaira supported the Khalistan referendum name and stated its organisers had been inside their rights to hold out the referendum. Once more, earlier than the 2021 Punjab elections, a number of allegations had been labelled towards the AAP for searching for the assist of Khalistani components within the society.

The quite a few allegations towards the AAP on getting the assist of Khalistani components additional bought consolidated when a banned Khalistani group, ‘Sikh for Justice’, stated that the get together received the 2022 elections in Punjab based mostly on Khalistani voters’ assist in addition to monetary assist and it is time for it to meet the agenda of Khalistan referendum. These are harmful developments. A banned outfit brazenly flaunting assist to a celebration is a significant safety concern. That is particularly so in a state like Punjab the place the insurgency has been a significant problem. The AAP profitable in Punjab is a significant safety problem that must be handled rigorously.

The shoddy connection of the AAP and its founders with anti-national components just isn’t a brand new phenomenon. Even earlier than Kejriwal began the AAP, he accepted that his NGO Kabir obtained funds from Ford Basis, an NGO working on the discretion of the US’ CIA. He later, nonetheless, made a number of flip flops on the assertion however a number of accusations had been made towards him on the identical strains.

It’s an open secret that the CIA had used NGOs such because the Ford Basis to destabilise democracies and have additionally funded political events to affect a nation’s polity and collect intelligence. The Ford Basis has additionally been accused of illegally funding political events and revenue making our bodies in Bharat. Furthermore, the position of AAP councillor Tahir Hussain within the Delhi riots may be very well-known. The AAP sat over a whole riot defending the perpetrators like Tahir Hussain only for minority voters.

Such associations will not be small points however a significant concern, particularly if a political get together has such shoddy associations. That is much more so if the get together is claimed to be championing the reason for schooling for the following generations. One other factor other than the affiliation with anti-national components that’s worrisome is the coverage that the AAP is propagating. At the moment, Kejriwal goes throughout the nation spreading the Delhi Mannequin. The identical Delhi Mannequin is predicated on freebies, liquor and anarchy.

Many consultants have acknowledged that that freebie mannequin of governance will set a harmful precedent for democracy because it results in larger public debt and permits political events to bribe voters via freebies. Additionally, the Delhi authorities beneath the AAP has taken up a liquor coverage to advertise liquor consumption within the state. The federal government is anticipated to realize extra income from extra non-public liquor shops. That is once more a basic instance of desperation on the a part of a authorities to realize income from one thing that’s thought-about immoral within the society simply to assist its freebie coverage. That is much more harmful if we contemplate that Delhi ranks highest in deadly street accidents on account of drunken driving. This displays on the sheer apathy on the a part of the federal government for the individuals.

Moreover, the AAP authorities in Delhi helps anarchy. Be it supporting the Shaheen Bagh protest earlier than the Delhi Meeting election in 2020 or the farmer protest earlier than the Punjab election in 2022. The politics of the AAP and its insurance policies are solely anticipated to take the individuals downhill.

The AAP is slowly attempting to realize nationwide relevance. It is very important rigorously observe its subsequent step. Its victory in Punjab could be owed to the political vacuum created in Punjab after the Congress and SAD had misplaced public assist. The technique of the AAP after shedding out within the Lok Sabha 2014 and 2019 is to make itself politically related within the nationwide scheme of issues. It seems to be one of many long-standing ambitions of Kejriwal. Together with Delhi, they’ve centered on small states like Goa, Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand the place together with get together image voting, the person affect of candidates additionally turns into vital. Aside from Punjab, the AAP’s efficiency in states like Uttarakhand and Goa was quite poor within the present elections. Additionally, they’ve historically not completed effectively in huge states the place extra gumption is required when it comes to cadre power and social media rhetoric doesn’t work. One of the best instance of that is the results of the AAP in Uttar Pradesh. Nevertheless, probably the most fertile floor for the AAP ever since its inception has been the Congress-ruled states the place switch of energy between INC and AAP is quite clean and there’s a main consolidation of INC voters in direction of AAP. This was the case in Delhi in 2015 in addition to in Punjab in 2022.

The AAP which got here with a promise of alternate politics is diminished to a subsidiary model of the Congress with no main ideological distinction. This additionally aids the vote switch. Fairly than siding with the BJP, Congress and Left inclined voters select the AAP which serves to supply a brand new label to those two outdated events’ ideologies. That is additionally substantiated within the AAP ticket distribution within the 2020 Delhi Meeting elections the place the get together dropped its a number of MLAs and fielded many Congress entrants. At the moment, the AAP has set its eyes on the Gujarat elections and is aiming to interchange Congress because the principal Opposition.

The goal of the AAP seems to be to money in on the depleting recognition of the Congress throughout the nation, with a particular deal with small states. The AAP has until not been capable of make inroads in BJP-ruled states and has confronted a significant drubbing in all states. That is largely as a result of lack of response of the get together to the Hindutva plus growth agenda of the BJP in its ruling states. The AAP doesn’t appear to care about forming the federal government in a BJP-ruled state, however is concentrated on being the principal Opposition to have some relevance. Within the coming time, the get together is searching for relevance on the nationwide degree.

The AAP is probably going to supply the outdated recipe of the Congress and the Left, however with new packaging. The relevance of the AAP lies majorly within the irrelevance of the Congress and the expansion of AAP is prone to be dented if the Congress features nationwide prominence once more.

The author is advisor, VESIM Literati Pageant, Mumbai, Khajuraho Literature Pageant and Prabuddha Bharat, Belagavi. Views expressed are private.

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