Do South Koreans Support a Peace Treaty With the North? – The Diplomat

Does the South Korean public assist a peace treaty with North Korea? My authentic survey work exhibits that, regardless of latest missile assessments by North Korea and the shortage of significant inter-Korean dialogue, a transparent majority of South Koreans approve of the concept. Even amongst those that had deliberate to vote for Yoon Suk-yeol, the conservative presidential candidate (and now president-elect) a skinny majority assist a peace treaty, in distinction to Yoon’s rhetoric a couple of harder stance towards North Korea and the expectation that his administration won’t proceed President Moon Jae-in’s name for a peace treaty with out first denuclearization efforts by Pyongyang. Nevertheless, the general public could view a treaty as aspirational, not contemplating the logistics or feasibility now, permitting Yoon to finish such overtures.

Yoon’s election victory is predicted to result in a hawkish pivot in South Korea’s coverage with North Korea and away from the engagement efforts underneath Moon. On the first inter-Korean summit between Moon and North Korean chief Kim Jong Un, each side declared assist for efforts to result in a peace treaty that may formally finish the Korean Conflict. Nevertheless, there was little progress past this summary settlement, and no summits since 2019. Moon, nonetheless, remained optimistic concerning the resumption of talks and continued to push for a peace treaty. Due to Moon’s insistence, the U.S. and South Korea agreed in precept on an finish of warfare declaration, regardless of little participation by North Korea main as much as the announcement.

For its half, North Korea routinely calls for the tip of the USA’ “hostile coverage” as a crucial precondition for a treaty, whereas the U.S. has resisted taking such a step with out concrete proof of denuclearization. Furthermore, North Korea examined 9 missiles this yr previous to the South Korean presidential election. Such bellicose actions could be anticipated to bitter South Korean public curiosity in a peace treaty.

A peace treaty would have symbolic significance, sustaining hope for, if not reunification, not less than peaceable coexistence, particularly at a time the place extra South Koreans would select the latter over the previous. Nevertheless, the sensible advantages of a treaty are unclear, particularly as North Korea continues its missile program. Equally, the logistics of all events signing a peace treaty, which presumably would additionally embody the USA and China, appear unlikely.

As a candidate, Yoon appeared disinterested in these end-of-war efforts, stating {that a} treaty would solely be “shall be finished solely on paper with ink” so long as North Korea has nuclear capabilities. This maybe will get to the center of the difficulty, the place South Koreans could usually be supportive of a peace treaty, however differ on whether or not there ought to be no express preconditions or whether or not concessions from North Korea, equivalent to verifiable denuclearization, should come first.

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To deal with public perceptions, I carried out an internet survey earlier than the South Korean presidential election, by way of Macromill Embrain on February 18-22. On this survey, I requested 945 South Koreans “Do you assist a peace treaty between South Korea and North Korea?”

Total, a transparent majority assist such actions (71.64 %). Nevertheless, amongst supporters of the 2 major candidates we see clear distinctions, with the overwhelming majority of Lee Jae-myung supporters in favor (92.24 %) in comparison with a slim majority of Yoon’s supporters (50.37 %). A number of elements might clarify these patterns. Help amongst those that had been planning to vote for Lee could be according to liberal-progressive assist for “Sunshine Coverage”-type applications that purpose to heat inter-Korean relations. In distinction, Yoon’s supporters, according to conservative events extra typically, could also be apprehensive of negotiations with the authoritarian state, which candidate Yoon known as a “archetype of a failed state,” particularly negotiations that doubtlessly reward North Korea with out requiring a change in conduct. Nonetheless, contemplating the shortage of progress towards hotter relations throughout the peninsula, that majorities assist a peace treaty is stunning.

Breaking down assist by political ideology offers further perception. Admittedly, ideology corresponds strongly with vote intention, with over 60 % of these figuring out as left of middle (1-3 on a seven-point ideology measure) supporting Lee and people proper of middle (5-7) supporting Yoon. Nevertheless, when damaged down by political ideology somewhat than vote alternative, we see a transparent decline in assist as one strikes throughout a seven-point progressive-conservative scale. Among the many very progressive, 90.48 % of respondents assist a treaty, dropping to solely 29.41 % amongst the very conservative.

Regression evaluation offers additional perception. Controlling for demographic elements in addition to ideology and candidate assist, solely age and assist for Lee positively correspond with supporting a peace treaty, whereas ideology and assist for Yoon negatively correspond with assist. Switching out the candidates for his or her respective events produces related outcomes. As well as, those that evaluated Moon’s presidency extra favorably, controlling for partisan and demographic elements, had been additionally extra prone to assist a peace treaty.

What does this imply for President-elect Yoon? Admittedly, the constraints of this survey work don’t enable us to determine the load the South Korean public offers to a peace treaty in comparison with different elements equivalent to housing or jobs. Nor can it seize whether or not the general public has absolutely thought of the complexities concerned in such association. In different phrases, the findings could also be a extra visceral response to the concept of a peace treaty and never think about what could be crucial for it to have greater than symbolic which means. Yoon should additionally deal with a North Korea that has determined to scrap its moratorium on intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) testing and could also be making ready for a nuclear check, incentivizing a extra hardline stance whereas limiting assist for even rhetoric about engagement.

Thus, whereas a public could seem supportive of a peace treaty, latest actions by North Korea in addition to home issues in South Korea will possible lead Yoon to spend little effort selling such efforts.