Sri Lanka’s Bank of Ceylon ‘CCC’ rating place on watch for possible downgrade

ECONOMYNEXT – Fitch Rankings has positioned Sri Lanka’s Financial institution of Ceylon on look ahead to attainable downgrade as foreign exchange shortages worsened after two years of cash printing beneath a extremely discretionary ‘versatile inflation focusing on’ regime with a reserve accumulating peg.

The Ranking Watch Adverse (RWN) “has been pushed by heightened near-term draw back dangers to Sri Lankan banks, together with BOC, from constrained entry to overseas forex funding and indications of stress skilled by banks within the system as outcome,” Fitch mentioned.

“We goal to resolve the RWN within the subsequent six months relying how the financial institution’s funding and liquidity place evolves,” the score company mentioned.

“Fitch sees the foreign-currency funding and liquidity positions of home banks as susceptible to sudden adjustments in already weak creditor sentiment.”

This week the federal government and public entities would droop funds of debt from April 12.

The complete assertion is reproduced under:

Fitch Rankings – Colombo – 12 Apr 2022: Fitch Rankings has positioned Financial institution of Ceylon’s (BOC) Lengthy-Time period Overseas-Foreign money Issuer Default Ranking (IDR) of ‘CC’, Lengthy-Time period Native-Foreign money IDR of ‘CCC’ and Viability Ranking (VR) of ‘cc’ on Ranking Watch Adverse (RWN). BOC’s Authorities Assist Ranking of ‘No Assist’ has been affirmed.

Fitch has additionally positioned BOC’s Nationwide Lengthy-Time period Ranking of ‘AA-(lka) on RWN.

A full record of score actions is under.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

IDRS AND VIABILITY RATING

The RWN on BOC’s VR and IDRs has been pushed by heightened near-term draw back dangers to Sri Lankan banks, together with BOC, from constrained entry to overseas forex funding and indications of stress skilled by banks within the system as outcome. This threat is exacerbated by way of the sovereign’s credit score profile (Sri Lanka: Lengthy-Time period Overseas-Foreign money IDR of ‘CC’ and Lengthy-Time period Native-Foreign money IDR of ‘CCC’) and ensuing dangers to the steadiness of the monetary system.

Fitch believes mounting forex stress is rising the chance of restrictions being imposed on BOC’s capacity to service obligations in overseas forex and native forex within the occasion of a sovereign default, or if confidence erodes earlier than that default occasion.

BOC’s Lengthy-Time period Native-Foreign money IDR takes into consideration that the chance of local-currency restrictions being imposed is decrease than that of foreign-currency restrictions ought to the sovereign transfer in the direction of default.

We goal to resolve the RWN within the subsequent six months relying how the financial institution’s funding and liquidity place evolves.

Fitch sees the foreign-currency funding and liquidity positions of home banks as susceptible to sudden adjustments in already weak creditor sentiment.

Mortgage and deposit dollarisation for the sector remained at 18% of complete loans and 17% of complete deposits at end-2021. The working setting (OE) rating was maintained at ‘ccc’/adverse because it components the incremental deterioration in Sri Lanka’s economic system stemming from the sovereign profile, which can constrain the financial institution’s working flexibility.

Sri Lanka’s working setting continues to be difficult and the adverse outlook displays the numerous near-to-medium time period draw back threat offered by the sovereign’s weak credit score profile, as spillover results may affect financial efficiency.

Fitch has additionally revised the banking sector outlook for 2022 to deteriorating from impartial. Financial challenges are more likely to be bigger than we initially anticipated. This might outcome
in sharp asset-quality deterioration and considerably impair profitability, which may expose banks to capital deficiencies.

We have now lowered BOC’s enterprise profile rating to ‘ccc’/adverse, from ‘b-‘/adverse, given the financial institution’s vulnerability to elevated dangers within the Sri Lankan market that may harm its capacity to generate and defend enterprise quantity. The rating additionally takes under consideration BOC’s dominant home market place as Sri Lanka’s largest financial institution, accounting for round 20% of sector property. The adverse outlook captures the strain on BOC’s enterprise profile stemming from the OE and, in the end, the sovereign.

We lowered BOC’s threat profile to ‘cc’/adverse, from ‘ccc’/adverse, to mirror the financial institution’s publicity to the sovereign and broader public sector – specifically these denominated in overseas forex – which elevates its threat profile. This consists of its important publicity through loans, off-balance-sheet transactions and securities, exposing the financial institution to the sovereign’s compensation capability and liquidity place. The adverse outlook displays draw back threat to BOC’s threat profile from the OE and the sovereign.

BOC’s asset-quality rating has been lowered to ‘cc’/adverse, from ‘ccc’/adverse, to mirror the seemingly deterioration of company and family stability sheets in more and more difficult macroeconomic situations, and the numerous publicity to the sovereign and broader public sector. The adverse outlook displays our view of draw back threat to the asset-quality rating from its publicity to the sovereign and the OE.

BOC’s earnings and profitability rating has been revised all the way down to ‘ccc+’/adverse from ‘b-‘/adverse. This captures the upper dangers to earnings and profitability, and the elevated chance of the financial institution turning into structurally unprofitable for a sustained interval. The adverse outlook on the rating is as a result of draw back threat from potential financial fallout.

We have now maintained BOC’s capitalisation and leverage rating of ‘ccc’/adverse and funding and liquidity rating at ‘cc’/adverse (see “Fitch Downgrades Financial institution of Ceylon to ‘CC’ on Sovereign Downgrade; Affirms Native-Foreign money IDR”).

The VR is under the implied rating of ‘ccc’, as we consider BOC’s funding and liquidity profile has a larger affect on the VR than the weighting would recommend. This displays our view of heightened dangers to the steadiness of BOC’s foreign-currency funding and liquidity stemming from the deterioration within the sovereign’s foreign-currency credit score profile.

GOVERNMENT SUPPORT RATING

The Authorities Assist Ranking displays our evaluation that there is no such thing as a cheap assumption of presidency assist being forthcoming (see hyperlink to 24 December 2021 score motion commentary above).

NATIONAL LONG-TERM RATING

The RWN on BOC’s Nationwide-Lengthy Time period Ranking displays the RWN on its Lengthy-Time period Native-Foreign money LT IDR and likewise the potential for the financial institution’s creditworthiness relative to different Sri Lankan nationwide scale rankings to deteriorate, given the potential stress on banks’
funding and liquidity, and likewise for BOC, its important publicity to the sovereign and broader public sector that raises its threat profile.

SUBORDINATED DEBT

The RWN on the subordinated debt stems from the RWN on the Nationwide Lengthy-Time period Ranking. The Basel II Sri Lankan rupee-denominated subordinated debt of BOC is rated two notches under its Nationwide Lengthy-Time period Ranking, in step with Fitch’s baseline notching for loss severity for such a debt and our expectations of poor restoration.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Components that might, individually or collectively, result in adverse score motion/downgrade:

IDRS , VIABILITY RATING AND NATIONAL RATINGS

The RWN on the VR, IDRs and Nationwide Rankings displays the rising dangers from funding stresses in Sri Lanka. We anticipate to resolve the RWN within the subsequent six months, when the affect on the financial institution’s credit score profile turns into extra obvious. Potential downgrade triggers embrace: a brief negotiated waiver or standstill settlement following a cost default by BOC on a big monetary obligation; the place Fitch believes BOC has entered right into a grace or remedy interval following non-payment of a cloth monetary obligation; additional funding stress impeding BOC’s compensation capacity; and materials intervention within the banking sector by the authorities that might constrain BOC’s capacity to service its obligations.

An additional downgrade of the sovereign score stemming from a default occasion may additionally result in a downgrade of BOC’s rankings.

GOVERNMENT SUPPORT RATING

The score is already at its lowest stage and thus has no draw back threat.

SUBORDINATED DEBT

BOC’s subordinated debt score will transfer in tandem with the Nationwide-Lengthy Time period Ranking.

Components that might, individually or collectively, result in constructive score motion/improve:

IDRs, VIABILITY RATING and NATIONAL RATINGS

There may be restricted scope for upward score motion on the Nationwide Rankings and likewise the VRs and IDRs of BOC given the RWN, and the adverse outlook we have now on all score components.

GOVERNMENT SUPPORT RATING

The Authorities Assist Ranking is constrained by the sovereign score. An upward revision is feasible, offered the sovereign’s capacity to offer assist considerably improves. Nevertheless, this seems unlikely within the close to to medium time period.

SUBORDINATED DEBT

BOC’s subordinated debt score will transfer in tandem with the Nationwide-Lengthy Time period Ranking.

VR ADJUSTMENTS

The assigned VR is under the implied VR, reflecting a adverse adjustment from the weakest hyperlink of BOC’s funding and liquidity, which has a larger affect on the VR than what the weighting suggests.
BOC has a 1.78% fairness stake in Fitch Rankings Lanka Ltd. No shareholder apart from Fitch, Inc. is concerned within the day-to-day score operations of, or credit score critiques undertaken by, Fitch Rankings Lanka Ltd.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

Worldwide scale credit score rankings of Monetary Establishments and Coated Bond issuers have a best-case score improve situation (outlined because the 99th percentile of score transitions, measured in a constructive path) of three notches over a three-year score horizon; and a worst-case score downgrade situation (outlined because the 99th percentile of score transitions, measured in a adverse path) of 4 notches over three years. The entire span of best- and worst-case situation credit score rankings for all score classes ranges from ‘AAA’ to ‘D’. Greatest- and worst-case situation credit score rankings are based mostly on historic efficiency. For extra details about the methodology used to find out sector-specific best- and worst-case situation credit score rankings, go to https://www.fitchratings.com/web site/re/10111579

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING

The principal sources of data used within the evaluation are described within the Relevant Standards.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Financial institution of Ceylon has an ESG Relevance Rating of ‘4’ for Governance Construction as a result of possession focus, with a 100% state shareholding and a number of other related-party transactions with the state and state-owned entities, which has a adverse affect on the credit score profile, and is related to the score together with different components.
Until in any other case disclosed on this part, the best stage of ESG credit score relevance is a rating of ‘3’. This implies ESG points are credit-neutral or have solely a minimal credit score affect on the entity, both as a result of their nature or the best way by which they’re being managed by the entity.