Old Challenges Loom Over Southern Thailand’s New Peace Talks   – The Diplomat

ASEAN Beat | Politics | Southeast Asia

Earlier this month, Thailand’s authorities and insurgents within the nation’s south agreed to a pause in violence tied to the month of Ramadan within the newest growth within the decades-long southern Thailand insurgency. Whereas the confidence-building measure spotlighted a ray of hope amid continued peace talks, whether or not or not such strikes can get previous the problem of sustaining peace stays to be seen.

The rise of a brand new wave of violence in Thailand’s Malay-Muslim majority southernmost provinces since 2004 has left over 7,000 lifeless in what’s one in every of Asia’s deadliest ongoing conflicts. But regardless of a number of rounds of talks between the federal government and insurgents – at instances with the facilitation of neighboring Malaysia – either side have been unable to discover a political decision to what continues to be one in every of Thailand’s prime inside safety challenges.

This yr had seen renewed efforts at peace talks between the 2 sides, after face-to-face talks had been suspended with the outbreak of the pandemic. From January 11-12, Malaysia brokered the primary peace talks because the pandemic between the Thai authorities and Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), the main separatist insurgency group. Following a second spherical of talks from March 31-April 1, either side agreed to a 40-day pause in violence protecting the month of Ramadan and commenced a means of reaching alignment on three key areas: violence discount, public session, and political answer.

The incremental beneficial properties throughout the peace course of, fragile and modest although they might be, ought to not be dismissed solely. Although such pauses in violence have occurred earlier than and have a blended file of success, they function primary confidence-building measures when ranges of belief between the 2 sides are fairly low. The most recent iteration included an unprecedented provision to permit unarmed rebels to go to their households throughout Ramadan and accompanying efforts to cut back tensions. Equally, aligning on key areas can at the least start to establish after which bridge remaining divides between either side, even when, as Malaysia’s peace dealer Abdul Rahim Noor has stated, that is nonetheless on the early stage of the formation of joint working teams to flesh out these matters.

But on the similar time, the pause in violence shouldn’t distract from the core problem of forging sustainable peace in Southern Thailand, which is rooted within the political variations that stay between the 2 sides and inside their camps. Episodic assaults which have taken place since January proceed to boost considerations about divisions among the many BRN and with different teams, comparable to PULO, that are disregarded of the talks and will function spoilers additional down the road.

Having fun with this text? Click on right here to subscribe for full entry. Simply $5 a month.

Extra broadly, there are additionally lingering considerations about whether or not either side will have the ability to arrive at some form of center floor between the independence sought by the insurgents within the south and the Thai state’s exhausting line on preserving its energy. Any compromise with the separatists to the south has been seen as having results for governance within the nation extra broadly. Some model of decentralization or devolution has lengthy been touted as a possible answer, however fashioning a mutually acceptable compromise that permits either side to say they’re working from a place of power is an issue that has bedeviled many earlier peace processes.

To make sure, these challenges shouldn’t detract from the potential for all sides persevering with to pursue dialogue, which holds out the slim probability of at the least respiratory contemporary life into efforts to handle the insurgency. Certainly, even some on the Thai authorities facet have conceded that they see promise on this newest spherical of talks, noting the direct presence of a core member of the BRN’s preventing wing at talks. The brand new Ramadan peace initiative may perform as a trial interval to evaluate how the easing of tensions will play out. Nonetheless, given numerous rounds of beforehand dashed hopes, cautious scrutiny ought to be positioned not simply on particular person developments, but additionally the administration of structural points which have pissed off peace efforts previously.