Russia Squeezes Kazakhstan – WSJ

Thinly populated Kazakhstan, the place 19 million folks inhabit a territory roughly the world of Alaska and Texas mixed, occupies a strategic place on the geographical middle of Asia.

Its border with Russia, at greater than 4,200 miles, is the longest land frontier on this planet, and it additionally shares a roughly 950-mile border with China. It accounts for greater than half the overall gross home product of the 5 Central Asian republics and, along with monumental oil reserves, it has the world’s second-largest provide of uranium.

When Kazakhs converse of the “January occasions,” they aren’t speaking concerning the shambolic try by pro-Trump protesters to derail the certification of

Joe Biden’s

electoral victory. In Kazakhstan, the January occasions began with nationwide anticorruption protests towards the alleged wholesale looting of the economic system by former longtime ruler Nursultan Nazarbayev and his allies. Whereas the small print of what occurred subsequent are unclear, armed rebels infiltrated the beforehand peaceable protests, and the following avenue clashes in Almaty led to greater than 200 deaths and nearly 10,000 arrests. The armed rebels are broadly believed to be linked to Nazarbayev allies hoping to take advantage of the unrest and return to energy.

The chaos ended when a Russian-led intervention power arrived to sign Moscow’s help for the present president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. The Russian intervention was well-planned and well-executed, and the international forces left the nation with out firing a shot.

Mr. Nazarbayev, who retained key positions after formally stepping down from the presidency in 2019, has since light into the background. Whereas Mr. Tokayev now seems to be in agency management, extraordinary Kazakhs can solely speculate on why Mr. Putin got here to his rescue and what offers if any have been made.

The second demonstration of Russian energy got here with the warfare in Ukraine. Whereas the warfare has not gone nicely for Russia on the bottom, the ensuing waves of sanctions have upended the Kazakh economic system.

The native forex tanked, then recovered, in lockstep with the ruble. Given the highly effective position of Russian banks within the home economic system, Kazakh authorities have struggled to handle the affect of Western sanctions on the monetary system.

For landlocked Kazakhstan, whose economic system relies upon largely on oil exports by a pipeline terminating within the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, the concern that Western oil sanctions will hit Kazakh oil in Russian pipelines is actual. Worse, the Novorossiysk terminal has been largely shut down since March, ostensibly due to storm harm. Whereas smaller pipelines carry some Kazakh oil to China and Turkey, the Novorossiysk shutdown threatens the nation’s principal supply of export earnings at a time when the native economic system hasn’t totally recovered from the implications of the January clashes and the Covid pandemic.

In Kazakhstan, it isn’t laborious to seek out individuals who imagine that Russia intentionally turned off the oil faucet. The pipeline shutdown pushes world oil costs greater, places stress on Europe, hits the U.S. oil companies which have substantial investments in Kazakhstan—and reminds the Kazakhs who’s in cost.

There may be little doubt right here that no nation has as a lot affect over Kazakhstan’s future because the colossus to the north. That actuality disheartens many right here who bear in mind the savage repression of the Soviet period, concern Mr. Putin’s final intentions, and bemoan the impact of Russian tolerance of corruption on the native economic system.

Many Kazakhs, nonetheless, see few options to shut relations with Moscow. American affect seems to be fading within the area following the retreat from Afghanistan, and Beijing’s persecution of ethnic Kazakhs in close by Xinjiang has strengthened a deep cultural mistrust of China.

Now that the Biden administration has made weakening Russia a serious strategic objective, that calculation might change. Together with the Netherlands and Switzerland, the U.S. is without doubt one of the three largest traders in Kazakhstan, outpacing each Russia and China. As Washington coverage makers search for methods to counter Russian affect and complicate Mr. Putin’s life, serving to Kazakhstan cut back its dependence on Moscow-controlled pipelines, reform its economic system, and coordinate with neighboring Central Asian states to restrict the affect of each China and Russia could be a superb place to start out.