South Korea’s New President Steps Into a Geopolitical Minefield

On Might 10, Moon Jae-in will step down as South Korea’s president after a five-year time period. The person who will exchange him, conservative Yoon Suk-yeol, will enter workplace with a big to-do checklist ready for him, probably the most urgent of which is unifying a extremely divided South Korean inhabitants, decreasing excessive dwelling prices throughout the nation and guaranteeing South Korea’s economic system continues to develop after a 4 % enhance in 2021—the best spurt in additional than a decade.

Yoon is a largely unknown commodity. If individuals have heard of his identify, it is most likely as a result of his profession as a prosecutor, throughout which he helped convict former South Korean Presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye on bribery prices. Yoon is a political novice; his very first political marketing campaign was this yr’s presidential race, a contest he received by lower than a proportion level. So it is solely pure if nations around the globe are a bit interested in how Yoon will run his authorities or take care of any variety of overseas coverage points that await him.

If there’s any readability about Yoon’s overseas coverage, it could actually maybe be summarized as “take a look at what Moon did and do the other.” The brand new conservative authorities, which shall be inaugurated in roughly two weeks, goals to distance itself from a lot of its predecessor’s insurance policies, notably on North Korea, China and Japan.

Whereas the outgoing Moon administration sought to enhance ties with North Korean chief Kim Jong Un by way of joint financial endeavors, letter writing and a number of other leader-to-leader summits (throughout a kind of conferences, Moon rode with Kim in an open-top automobile by way of the streets of Pyongyang, waving to a big crowd of jubilant North Koreans), Yoon has made it abundantly clear that the summitry days are over. Whereas Yoon has saved the choice of diplomacy open, he’s in no hurry to fix fences with the North, not to mention signal a peace declaration with the Kim dynasty. In an April 24 interview with The Wall Avenue Journal, Yoon mentioned he was prepared to spice up the quantity of humanitarian help to North Korea and assist Pyongyang entice overseas funding, however provided that Kim took step one towards disarming his nuclear weapons program. Simply in case the North considered him as too overly longing for a negotiation, the South Korean president-elect additionally mentioned the necessity to strengthening South Korea’s army with a purpose to deter, and if vital preempt, a hypothetical North Korean assault.

On China, Yoon is straddling someplace between a hawkish South Korean nationalist and a realistic technocrat. In the course of the marketing campaign, he wrote an article condemning the Moon authorities’s method to Beijing, which he referred to as so docile and wimpish that it jeopardized South Korea’s nationwide curiosity. Yoon was referring to Moon’s “three no’s” coverage, designed to accommodate China after a yr of hostile relations spurred by Seoul’s determination to simply accept a U.S.-supplied THAAD missile protection system on its territory (the “three no’s” included “no extra THAAD deployment, no participation within the U.S.’ missile protection community and no institution of a trilateral army alliance with the U.S. and Japan”). The choice put South Korea-China relations right into a downward tailspin and prompted Beijing to curtail the China-based actions of a big South Korean retail conglomerate—costing Seoul $7.5 billion in income losses. The financial ache was sufficient of a jolt for Moon, who provided concessions to stabilize the connection. However for Yoon, the concessions themselves had been nothing in need of humiliating.

South Korea and Japan are Washington’s strongest allies in East Asia. But relations between these two allies are within the dumpster, having nosedived after years of mutual antagonism on all the things from Tokyo’s 1910-1945 occupation of the Korean Peninsula, a dicey 2018 army altercation within the Sea of Japan and commerce points. One of many incoming Yoon administration’s foremost priorities is to introduce some normality to the South Korea-Japan relationship. Yoon spoke with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida shortly after his election victory, and a private delegation organized by Yoon traveled to Tokyo this week to satisfy with senior Japanese officers, the place each side expressed an curiosity in transferring on from their years-long tough patch.

Will any of Yoon’s insurance policies stick? Or extra to the purpose, will Yoon really persist with them? Promising issues on the marketing campaign path is one factor, however really delivering on these guarantees is one thing else fully. The world appears to be like loads totally different within the presidential suite than it does on the stump and even within the prosecutor’s workplace. President-elect Yoon might have extra hassle than most making the transition as a result of a lot of his coverage proposals shall be difficult by the world he will inherit.

For example, how does he intend to redouble the U.S.-South Korea army alliance and enhance engagement with the Quad group with out undermining his objective of a mutually-respectful dialogue with China, South Korea’s largest buying and selling accomplice? How can he revitalize South Korea-Japan ties when the politics in each nations are exceedingly hawkish towards any type of compromise? Karl Friedhoff, an Asia skilled on the Chicago Council on World Affairs noticed, “Nobody [in South Korea] desires to be solid as pro-Japan.” Is it attainable for Yoon to recommence talks with North Korea and de-escalate the scenario on the Korean Peninsula when his complete coverage towards Pyongyang will depend on Kim waking up one morning and doing the inconceivable—giving up the North’s nuclear warheads? And the way does the incoming authorities anticipate to steadiness relations between the US, its primary safety ally, and China, Asia’s greatest energy?

All of those questions shall be answered in due time. If Yoon Suk-yeol efficiently navigates the turbulent waters of geopolitics in Asia, then he may very well be remembered as one in all South Korea’s most transformative presidents. If he would not, then Yoon shall be simply the most recent politician unable to compete along with his personal aspiring rhetoric.

Daniel R. DePetris is a fellow at Protection Priorities and a overseas affairs columnist at Newsweek.

The views expressed on this article are the author‘s personal.