Myanmar Coup Leader Reveals His Desperation by Proposing Peace Talks With EAOs

By Paw Htun 3 Might 2022

Coup chief Senior Normal Min Aung Hlaing is more and more anxious that he would possibly lose his place as Myanmar dictator, stated observers, after the junta chief just lately invited leaders of ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) to peace talks.

In a televised tackle on April 22, Min Aung Hlaing known as for face-to-face talks with EAO leaders.

Usually, army leaders fastidiously put together any speech they’re to ship publicly. Usually, the speech is drafted first by a Main Normal from the Psychological Warfare and Public Relations Division or the chief of army safety affairs. The speech is then sometimes delivered on state anniversaries or vital days.

However observers stated that Min Aung Hlaing didn’t put together fastidiously for his April 22 speech, and that it gave the impression to be an nearly impromptu tackle.

Even peculiar residents know that highly effective EAOs wouldn’t agree to carry talks with the army regime chief within the Myanmar capital Naypyitaw. Everybody is aware of that Min Aung Hlaing has been saying one factor and doing one other ever since he grew to become the army chief.

Min Aung Hlaing has by no means earlier than demonstrated any will or want to finish the armed conflicts in Myanmar’s borderlands.

As army chief he prevented the Arakan Military (AA), the Ta’ang Nationwide Liberation Military, and the Myanmar Nationwide Democratic Alliance Military from signing the Nationwide Ceasefire Settlement (NCA), although the three armed teams participated in peace talks below U Thein Sein’s quasi-civilian authorities and wished to affix the peace course of, and although U Thein Sein’s authorities wished them to signal the NCA.

U Thein Sein couldn’t go in opposition to the military chief. And due to the restrictions Min Aung Hlaing imposed, the highly effective Kachin Independence Military, which was contemplating signing the settlement, selected to not signal the NCA.

Consequently, clashes ensued in Rakhine, Kachin and Shan states all through the time the Nationwide League for Democracy (NLD) Social gathering was in authorities. And the army additionally suffered heavy casualties.

For the reason that coup, resistance teams collectively generally known as Folks’s Protection Forces (PDF) have sprung up throughout the nation. Presently, there are round 100,000 PDF members and native PDFs management the vast majority of Sagaing Area.

Nonetheless, Min Aung Hlaing excluded the PDFs in his April 22 supply of peace talks. If he has an actual want to finish the armed conflicts in Myanmar, he can’t exclude the PDFs.

Regardless of his proposal for peace talks, the regime is continuous with its assaults within the borderlands, stated EAO leaders. If Min Aung Hlaing actually desires to finish the armed conflicts, he ought to have instructed a halt to army operations since his proposal for talks, added some EAO leaders.

Some EAO leaders imagine that Min Aung Hlaing simply desires to cut back the strain on him and the Myanmar army, and doesn’t have any actual intention of ending the border conflicts.

Hundreds of anti-coup activists flocked to the borderlands to bear army coaching with EAOs, following the junta’s deadly crackdowns on anti-regime protests in February and March final yr. Now, PDFs are particularly energetic in Sagaing and Magwe areas, which historically present the most important variety of recruits for the Myanmar army. Apart from Naypyitaw, Ayeyarwady Area and Rakhine State, which is essentially below the management of the AA, a lot of the nation has develop into a warfare zone.

Since June final yr, all 30 divisions of the military have been engaged in continuous army and safety operations, one thing which is unprecedented within the Myanmar army’s historical past.

There are ten battalions in a division, and 7 of them must go to the entrance line in a army operation. After 4 months on operations, three of the battalions on the entrance are changed with the three within the rear. Now, although, the battalions are more and more exhausted as they’re unable to take a break as a result of preventing conflicts on so many fronts.

Regime forces are additionally considerably depleted due to casualties and a rising variety of defections. Min Aung Hlaing has been pressured to increase the retirement age of troops by two extra years to compensate for the dwindling variety of troopers.

Because of the shortages, the regime has needed to convey retired personnel again into service. It has additionally shaped teams just like the Pyu Noticed Htee militia to help its operations. The junta doesn’t fund them, however battalion commanders within the areas they function in must cowl their prices.

On the identical time, the army has seen a steep decline in its revenues as folks boycott military-linked merchandise. Usually, dividends from the military-owned Myanmar Financial Holdings conglomerate are distributed amongst energetic and retired personnel each six months. However battalions haven’t but acquired their annual dividend of 15 million kyats and thus haven’t been capable of perform social welfare works for his or her personnel and their households.

Because of the rising pressures, some military subordinates have began to criticize Min Aung Hlaing. Lively and retired army personnel at the moment are questioning the army’s management. There are various so-called ‘watermelon’ troopers, named as a result of they put on inexperienced uniforms however secretly help the NLD, who tip necessary army data to the resistance forces.

Some commanders would possibly now be contemplating scapegoating Min Aung Hlaing for his or her future security.

Whereas the regime’s battalions are more and more drained and cash-starved, the PDFs are rising when it comes to manpower and weapons. Resistance fighters who as soon as used rudimentary searching rifles now have fashionable assault rifles. In addition to utilizing landmines, they’re now conducting drone assaults. They’ve gained army expertise whereas defending themselves and attacking the regime forces.

It is just one month till the onset of the monsoon. When the wet season comes, regime troops will lose their air help and the PDFs and EAOs will achieve the higher hand.

Min Aung Hlaing wants to provide his troopers, who’re more and more drained and disobedient, a relaxation. He desires to maintain the EAOs at bay below the guise of peace talks, at the very least during the wet season when his troopers will wrestle to battle with out air help. That’s the reason he instantly proposed dialogue with the EAOs.

If the EAOs and PDFs can keep the present degree of army, financial and political strain on the regime, Min Aung Hlaing will certainly be pushed to despair.

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