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On April 29, Ilham Aliyev, the President of Azerbaijan, grew to become the primary post-Soviet chief to publicly distance himself from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It’s the newest and clearest instance of how Russia’s southern neighbors progressively are carving out a extra impartial stance on the present struggle.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine, most nations have made their positions pretty clear. Western nations have unanimously condemned Russia and pledged monetary and navy assist to Ukraine. Japan and South Korea have accomplished the identical. In contrast, China has remained aloof, whereas signaling that it received’t let the struggle hurt its relations with Moscow.
In contrast, the states on Russia’s southern border have been extra ambivalent. Uncovered to Russian stress and petrified of being subsequent in line if Russia succeeds in its efforts to dominate Ukraine, they’ve gone out of their technique to keep subdued rhetoric relating to the struggle. This has naturally led to criticism from some corners, but it surely’s mandatory to know within the context of their precarious positions: These states lack any actual protections for his or her safety, they usually concern that nobody would come to their help in the event that they change into Moscow’s subsequent targets.
The ensuing silence shouldn’t be taken as assist for Russia, nevertheless. Fairly on the contrary, it displays widespread fears of their former colonial overlord. Clues to the actual stances amongst Russia’s southern neighbors may be present in what they’ve been doing, relatively than what they’ve been saying. For, regardless of their connections to Russian financial and safety establishments, none has adopted the instance of Belarus and offered assist to Russia’s struggle effort.
The truth is, no matter assist has been offered by these governments has been for Ukraine. The stronger states — Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan — have taken the lead. All three have despatched planeloads of humanitarian help to Ukraine, with Azerbaijan additionally dispatching help to Moldova to take care of refugee flows there, whereas offering Ukraine with petroleum help to assist its agricultural sector from collapsing.
Moreover, whereas regional states haven’t joined Western sanctions on Russia, all have made clear they are going to adjust to them. Furthermore, in current weeks, they’ve additionally begun to articulate a clearer stance on the struggle.
Uzbekistan was the primary nation to articulate a important place. Already in mid-March, long-time Uzbek overseas minister Abdulaziz Kamilov instructed the nation’s parliament that the federal government helps Ukraine’s territorial integrity and would reject any notion of recognizing the Russia-supported Donetsk and Luhansk republics in japanese Ukraine. Quickly after, nevertheless, Kamilov was reported to have fallen ailing and to be receiving remedy overseas, earlier than being transferred to the Nationwide Safety Council (which some have taken to be some type of reprimand). However Uzbekistan’s authorities has not rescinded his assertion, indicating that Kamilov’s phrases stand.
Kazakhstan, too, has carved out a big place. Simply this January, the nation was pressured to name upon the Russia-led Collective Safety Treaty Group to assist quell severe home unrest. However, to Moscow’s dismay, this earlier help didn’t trigger Kazakhstan to fall according to Russia with regard to the struggle. Fairly the alternative, in truth; an assistant to Kazakhstan’s president made it clear that Kazakhstan doesn’t “need to be positioned in the identical basket as Russia,” whereas a deputy overseas minister acknowledged that the nation desires to keep away from being behind a brand new iron curtain. Kazakhstan additionally introduced it might not maintain the annual celebration of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany this yr, a transparent indication it doesn’t need to be related to Putin’s deliberate navy parade for the event.
Azerbaijan, on the opposite facet of the Caspian Sea, has relied on Moscow as a peacekeeper within the wake of its 2020 struggle with Armenia, through which it liberated giant territories that Armenia had occupied within the Nineties. And whereas Azerbaijan signed a treaty of cooperation with Russia simply days earlier than the invasion of Ukraine, it has been unequivocal in its assist for Ukraine’s territorial integrity. On April 29, Azerbaijan’s President, in response to a query from a Ukrainian lawmaker throughout a global convention in Baku, didn’t mince phrases. After reiterating Azerbaijan’s assist for Ukraine’s integrity, Aliyev urged his Ukrainian counterparts “by no means to comply with the violation of your territorial integrity.” He additional urged Ukraine to “rely by yourself assets,” and cautioned in opposition to relying on the resolutions of worldwide organizations, which “haven’t any worth.”
It’s maybe pure that Azerbaijan was first to specific a important place. Its personal painful expertise of occupation and ethnic cleaning clearly predisposed the nation to facet with Ukraine. Extra necessary, maybe, is the truth that Azerbaijan is the one regional state with some safety safety, having signed a mutual protection treaty with NATO ally Turkey final June.
Wanting forward, the US and its allies might want to work out a method for the long-term containment of Russia.
The states of Central Asia and the Caucasus will, together with Turkey, be a important southern bulwark in any such effort. These states are understandably cautious, and (particularly after the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan) uncertain to what extent they’ll depend on America. However they’re clearly rattled by Russia’s aggression, and on the lookout for methods to guard themselves in opposition to the identical sooner or later. For Washington, their worries present a possibility for reassurance — and to rebuild ties which were badly frayed by current coverage.
Svante E. Cornell is Director of the American International Coverage Council’s Central Asia-Caucasus Institute.
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