Opinion | Peace talks between Armenia and its historic adversaries, Azerbaijan and Turkey, could reap broader benefits

At a time when the world is targeted on the extraordinary fight in Ukraine, diplomatic points within the Caucasus could appear to be a sideshow. However serving to resolve these intractable conflicts wouldn’t solely be good for its personal sake; but in addition it presents a possible level of convergence for U.S. and Russian pursuits that would open helpful avenues of frequent dialogue.

Armenian International Minister Ararat Mirzoyan defined the normalization strikes in an interview final week in Washington, the place he was visiting Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The 2 signed a memorandum of understanding to supply U.S. assist for Armenia’s nuclear energy business and help in its wrestle in opposition to corruption. State Division officers have additionally visited Armenia and Azerbaijan in latest weeks to bolster the peace effort.

“We should always look not solely to the previous however to the longer term,” Mirzoyan informed me. He stated that if Armenia continues to be in a “zero-sum” recreation with its neighbors, “our area will likely be in a vicious circle.”

Elin Suleymanov, Azerbaijan’s ambassador to Britain and former ambassador to the USA, supplied an analogous “cautiously optimistic” evaluation. “Azerbaijan has repeatedly expressed hope for the soonest normalization and signing of a peace settlement,” he stated in a phone interview.

Armenian critics argue that Pashinyan is negotiating from weak point and is beneath strain from Russia, which brokered a cease-fire within the 2020 conflict after which a gathering between Pashinyan and Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev final November. Definitely, Russian President Vladimir Putin is a self-interested and unreliable mediator. Armenia continues to be reeling from a conflict that price hundreds of lives and traumatized the nation.

Armenia’s greatest safety in opposition to a coercive peace can be participation by the USA and Europe within the negotiating course of. One pathway for such a joint effort would a revival of the so-called Minsk Group, co-chaired by the USA, France and Russia. However Moscow is boycotting the group. As an alternative, the European Union has joined Russia as a co-sponsor of the talks, internet hosting a Pashinyan-Aliyev assembly in Brussels final month. That gives a Western leg of help for normalization.

This week, Mirzoyan, the Armenian overseas minister, will lean towards Russia, Armenia’s historic protector, as he meets in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, with overseas ministers of different former Soviet republics. That gathering is predicted to incorporate a three-way conclave with Russian International Minister Sergei Lavrov and Azerbaijani International Minister Jeyhun Bayramov to debate a peace treaty.

Armenia can be negotiating a gap with Turkey. Final week, particular representatives of each governments gathered in Vienna for a 3rd dialogue a couple of joint assertion described as “full normalization of relations.” Not too long ago, scheduled air flights resumed between the 2 nations. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan nonetheless refuses to acknowledge the 1915 genocide, however normalization seems to swimsuit his wider diplomatic purpose of decreasing conflicts within the area.

Probably the most intriguing but in addition precarious participant on this diplomatic spherical is Pashinyan. He grew to become prime minister in 2018 after main a protest motion in opposition to the corrupt institution that had led Armenia since its independence in 1991. With little political expertise, he struggled to implement reforms.

Then got here the disastrous conflict in 2020, which pressured Armenia to surrender a lot of Karabakh after practically 30 years of management of the area, which is legally a part of Azerbaijan however populated principally by ethnic Armenians.

Pashinyan determined it was time to contemplate what generations of Armenians had thought to be unthinkable — negotiating with out preconditions with Turkey and Azerbaijan. In a exceptional speech final month, he accepted “guilt and duty” for the “catastrophic” 2020 defeat. However he went on to say that his “actual fault” was not stating earlier than the conflict that Armenia wanted to make territorial compromises over Karabakh, as a result of Armenia’s unyielding diplomatic place had been “unequivocally” rejected by the worldwide neighborhood.

“Signing a peace treaty with Azerbaijan as quickly as potential is a part of our plans,” Pashinyan stated throughout his April 13 speech. Already, the 2 nations have agreed to ascertain a joint fee to outline safe borders. Protesters are outraged, however U.S. officers don’t assume they may topple Pashinyan.

Pashinyan, although depending on Russia for army safety, shares the USA’ concern concerning the invasion of Ukraine — and he needs U.S. financial and diplomatic help. One signal was his insistence that Armenia be part of the U.S.-sponsored “Summit for Democracy,” which happened just about in December, regardless of Russia’s sturdy opposition to its presence.

Armenia has an issue that Ukrainians could ultimately should confront. After struggling a lot in battle, how can a nation make peace with nations which have brought about a lot ache and struggling? It’s an age-old downside, particularly for a nation like Armenia that has skilled genocide. Blessed are the peacemakers, even when they’re not very talked-about proper now in a still-grieving Yerevan.