Kazakhstan’s Silk Road? – The Diplomat

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is having drastic penalties on international geopolitics. Much more, worldwide sanctions in opposition to the Russian authorities are additionally affecting Russia’s neighbors. International locations that historically depend on Russia as a transportation hall for items to achieve the European market at the moment are on the lookout for options. That is the case for Kazakhstan. Nur-Sultan is now turning to the Caucasus not solely to solidify friendships and partnerships but additionally to assist the Trans-Caspian hall, which has not but reached its full potential.

Two components have to be stored in thoughts: First, the thought of a Trans-Caspian hall that connects Central Asia with the Caucasus after which throughout the Black Sea to southeastern Europe, shouldn’t be new. When China introduced its bold Belt and Street Initiative, a part of the community of roads, railways, and sea lanes had been envisioned to undergo Kazakhstan, throughout the Caspian and the Caucasus. The Caucasus nations have typically supported this challenge. There at the moment are consortiums of firms that work collectively to make transportation simpler and quicker. For instance, the Center Hall, a Trans-Caspian worldwide transport route, brings collectively delivery firms from Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Kazakhstan. 

The second issue to notice is that Kazakhstan and the Caucasus nations usually are not strangers, notably within the case of Azerbaijan, as the 2 nations share a typical Turkic historical past. Kazakhstan, Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan have overlapping memberships in blocs just like the Group of Turkic States (previously known as the Turkic Council), the Eurasian Financial Union (EAEU), or the Commonwealth of Impartial States (CIS). Whereas Georgia shouldn’t be a member of the aforementioned blocs, Tbilisi and Nur-Sultan nonetheless take pleasure in cordial relations.

What’s necessary right here is that Kazakhstan and the Caucasus nations have been wanting on the Trans-Caspian transportation hall as a key challenge for the reason that conflict in Ukraine commenced. For instance, in March, the chair of the board of the Samruk Kazyna Wealth Fund, Almassadam Satkaliyev, and Azerbaijan’s Minister of Financial system Mikayil Jabbarov met in Baku to debate tips on how to intensify cargo transportation alongside the Caspian. Related discussions have been held between Kazakhstani and Georgian officers. 

Moreover, Timur Suleimenov, first deputy chief of workers of the president of Kazakhstan, defined throughout a January 18 occasion on the Kazakhstani embassy in Washington, D.C. that Nur-Sultan and Baku are in discussions to develop a brand new tanker fleet to maneuver power commodities from Kazakhstan’s Aktau port to Baku. (Anecdotally, a new Azerbaijani cargo-passenger ferry docked in Kazakhstan’s Kuryk port in mid-Might.) The potential of the Trans-Caspian hall has additionally been mentioned in different fora in current weeks: Kazakhstani Prime Minister Alikhan Smailov advised that Asian nations can use the Trans-Caspian worldwide transport route in a speech on the Boao Discussion board for Asia in China’s Hainan province on April 20-22.

Having fun with this text? Click on right here to subscribe for full entry. Simply $5 a month.

How a lot will be achieved to remodel the Caucasus into a real hall stays to be seen. The infrastructure is already there, with ports on each side of the Caspian, and a fancy system of railways. Nevertheless, there must be extra concord and cooperation between the Caucasus states (and Turkey) to make the switch of containers on the border quicker to cut back ready occasions. Tariffs have to be mentioned as properly. Geopolitics performs a complicating position, too, as Armenia and Azerbaijan have well-known border points. 

There have been some current promising developments. Kazakhstan reached an settlement with its Azerbaijani, Georgian, and Turkish companions “to create a three way partnership inside the framework of the Trans-Caspian Worldwide Transport Route (TITR).” 

It’s price noting that as Russia cuts gasoline flows to Poland and Bulgaria, whereas Moldova is seeking to export liquefied pure gasoline from Greece within the coming years, there’s an apparent demand in Europe for options to Russian power. Kazakhstan, together with different Central Asian nations and even Azerbaijan, which is seeking to increase its power trade together with inexperienced power, can win massive by turning into power suppliers to Europe. 

Unlocking the potential of the Caspian hall and the Caucasus to strengthen the connection between Central Asia and the Caucasus with Europe shouldn’t be a brand new idea. Again in 2018, when the authorized standing of the Caspian Sea was near being resolved, Fabio Indeo wrote for The Diplomat that this choice might create “an alternate westward hall, attaining a technique of export diversification” for Caspian states. Whereas the hall has not but obtain its full potential, the present conflict gives a brand new incentive for regional states to realize this objective. 

The Trans-Caspian worldwide transport route, which travels by China, Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and farther to European nations and Turkey, represents the pursuits of a number of nations and firms. One nation that stands to win massive from this new connectivity and an alternate route is Kazakhstan, as these days which have been difficulties in transporting Kazakh cargo resulting from delays in ports resulting from sanctions imposed in opposition to Russia. Therefore, it’s no shock that Kazakhstan is intensifying diplomatic talks to make full use of this necessary regional transport hall, which opens a myriad of financial and logistical alternatives for the nation and the area.