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President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s pledge to hold out a brand new navy incursion on Turkey’s southern borders has triggered hypothesis about potential targets, with the Syrian city of Tal Rifaat rising as a major aim of any operation.
Two days after Erdogan introduced the plan, the pro-government Yeni Safak newspaper mentioned on Wednesday preparations had been made for a brand new operation to broaden “secure zones” already arrange in northern Syria, with a number of objectives recognized.
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“Among the many possible targets of the Turkish Armed forces and the (Turkey-backed) Syrian Nationwide Military, are Tal Rifaat, Ain al Arab (Kobani), Ain Issa and Manbij,” the paper mentioned.
Turkish management of the cities, which lie on or near a central stretch of the 911-km-long border with Syria, might prolong and deepen its navy presence from close to the Mediterranean coast alongside practically three-quarters of the frontier.
Up to now, there have been few indicators of navy actions that preceded Turkey’s final 4 incursions into northern Syria.
Erdogan has mentioned selections on navy operations can be made at a Nationwide Safety Council assembly on Thursday.
The potential goal areas are managed by the US-backed YPG, which Ankara views as an extension of the PKK, a Kurdish militant group waging an insurgency in southeast Turkey since 1984. Turkey designates each as terrorist organizations.
YPG focused
The YPG has been the primary goal of a number of incursions which Turkey has carried out in northern Syria since 2016, seizing tons of of kilometers of land and pushing some 30 km (20 miles) deep into the nation.
YPG spokesman Nuri Mahmoud advised Reuters the group took Erdogan’s threats very significantly: “The worldwide coalition, America, and Russia ought to decide to the pledges that they made to this area. Their presence in our areas have to be significant, within the sense that it stops the repeated assaults on our folks.”
The Yeni Safak newspaper mentioned probably the most important goal of the most recent operation can be Tal Rifaat, some 15 km (9 miles) from the Turkish border, which it mentioned Kurdish fighters used as a base from which to launch assaults within the Afrin, Azaz and Jarablus areas managed by Turkey and Ankara-backed Syrian fighters.
Tal Rifaat is positioned north of Aleppo metropolis and simply south of Azaz. An operation there alone wouldn’t signify a widening of Turkey’s “secure zones” alongside the border, however would push its forces deeper into Syria.
Dareen Khalifa, an analyst on Syria on the Worldwide Disaster Group, mentioned it was unclear whether or not Erdogan was speaking about an operation in Tal Rifaat or additional east, however she highlighted the position of the city.
“Tal Rifaat, if something, can get him what he desires and it will keep away from triggering an enormous headache. I don’t assume the People care about Tal Rifaat,” she mentioned.
Most US forces in northern Syria are based mostly additional east.
She mentioned Russia, which has forces deployed within the area, had not been addressing his considerations on militant assaults on Turkish-controlled areas from Tal Rifaat, and that Erdogan has been saying for years that Tal Rifaat must be captured.
Kobani?
The predominantly Kurdish city of Kobani was touted as one other potential goal. The YPG’s defeat of ISIS militants there in 2015 helped flip the tide towards the group.
“Kobani represents the worth of a world victory within the struggle towards terrorism,” YPG spokesman Mahmoud mentioned. “There’s little question that our forces will do what is required to defend” the world.
The YPG, or Folks’s Protection Models, are a key factor of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the coalition which the USA largely relied on to struggle ISIS.
Nonetheless, Khalifa performed down the prospects of Turkey focusing on Kobani.
“I don’t assume there’s any curiosity in getting caught in Kobani,” she mentioned, pointing to the foremost demographic adjustments and response that will ensue if the Kurdish inhabitants fled.
She mentioned that whereas United States forces weren’t in Manbij bodily, it’s a US zone of affect, so “I count on it to additionally set off a US response.”
Any assault on Kobani would additionally threat triggering a powerful response from Turkey’s Kurds, who make up some 20 % of the nation’s inhabitants.
The ISIS assault on Kobani in 2014 led to protests through which dozens died in Turkey.
Mithat Sancar, joint head of Turkey’s pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Social gathering (HDP), warned concerning the penalties of Erdogan’s plans for contemporary navy operations.
“We should all see that this can lead once more to a bloody vortex on this area and nation,” he advised HDP lawmakers.
Erdogan’s discuss of a navy operation has additionally raised the stakes in Turkey’s row with NATO companions over Finland and Sweden becoming a member of the alliance, with Turkey accusing each of harboring folks linked to the PKK.
Analysts mentioned the incursion plans mirrored his perception that the West wouldn’t oppose such operations when it wants Ankara’s assist for the Nordic nations’ bid to affix NATO.
Erdogan’s announcement was additionally aimed toward bolstering nationalist assist as he gears up for tough elections subsequent 12 months, analysts mentioned. Cross-border navy operations have boosted his ballot scores up to now.
Learn extra: Turkey’s Erdogan threatens new incursion into Syria
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