Kazakhstan holds the keys to a new geopolitical balance in Asia

Within the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, world geopolitics is shifting quickly. Whereas the U.S. efficiently formed a unified response to Russia’s aggression, it’s overlooking a essential piece of a brand new geopolitical panorama: Kazakhstan and Central Asia. Kazakhstan’s summit conferences this month with China, Russia and the European Union underscore the urgency of a brand new U.S. technique within the area.

The Central Asian nations wedged between Russia to the north and China to the east are essential balancers between the U.S., Europe, Russia and China. All however the U.S. have wooed Kazakhstan this month. Early in June, China’s International Minister spent 4 days within the nation planning a state go to for Chinese language chief Xi Jinping within the fall. Sharing the stage in St. Petersburg with Russian President Vladimir Putin in mid-June, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev left a diplomatic opening, refusing to endorse Russia’s warfare in Ukraine. Final week’s assembly of the EU-Kazakhstan Cooperation Council in Luxembourg sought to deepen Kazakhstan’s connections to Europe.

A courtship for Kazakhstan has begun in earnest. By the Collective Safety Treaty Group, Russia presents worldwide safety and home stability. In January 2022, at Kazakhstan’s invitation, Russia deployed troops to quell home unrest. China presents the nation financial development. Kazakh-Chinese language commerce elevated at an annualized charge of 14.9 % for the previous 25 years. The Belt and Highway Initiative will add over $25 billion to the Kazakh economic system and cut back transport occasions and prices.

In distinction, U.S. engagement has been uninspired. With the autumn of the Soviet Union, U.S. diplomacy centered on nuclear safety and financial reform. After 9/11, the U.S. sought intelligence and logistics help for the warfare on terrorism. At the moment the U.S. presents international help to a rustic quickly turning into economically impartial. The U.S. should act extra decisively to construct on Europe’s engagement and guarantee Kazakhstan doesn’t drift nearer to China or again to Russia.

Kazakhstan is essential to U.S. nationwide pursuits in a world of nice energy rivalry. A paramount U.S. objective within the area is to forestall the “limitless alliance” between Russia and China introduced this yr from turning into a unified, autocratic block. Spanning practically 2,000 miles throughout the center of the Asian continent, Kazakhstan can both maintain that alliance collectively or spoil it. The nation is essential to each Russia’s sphere of affect and China’s Belt and Highway Initiative (BRI).

So too, Kazakhstan can once more function a diplomatic bridge between Russia and the West. Through the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea, Kazakhstan successfully mediated between France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia. In 2015, after Turkey downed a Russian jet over the Turkish-Syrian border, Kazakhstan introduced the 2 sides to the desk. Potential options in Ukraine require a mediator with credibility on all sides. Kazakhstan has it, in addition to shut financial ties with China that might lend an imprimatur of Beijing’s help.

Kazakhstan may assist bridge Europe’s transition away from Russian vitality. It has the reserves and pipeline connectivity to partially fill the availability hole. With the second largest confirmed oil reserves in Eurasia and 14th largest fuel reserves on the earth, Kazakhstan has accessible provide. Related to the underutilized Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, it has direct hyperlinks to Europe’s vitality customers. 

The U.S. wants a extra compelling strategy. First, to make sure Kazakhstan and its neighbors stay impartial balancers, the US.. should not ask an excessive amount of. These nations should keep relations with Moscow and Beijing, Washington and Brussels. It could be unrealistic to count on Kazakhstan to sever relations with Moscow or Beijing. It’s, in actual fact, these very relations that make it such a doubtlessly helpful — if restricted — associate for the U.S.

Second, the U.S. should assist buttress the area’s financial connections with the West, giving it an alternative choice to Russia and China. The U.S. ought to be a part of with Europe beneath the EU-Kazakhstan Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Settlement to speculate past China’s BRI, maybe with help from each the Asian Improvement Financial institution and the European Financial institution for Reconstruction and Improvement. Making certain that export strains stay open to Europe, regardless of warfare in Ukraine, is important — Europe accounts for 40 % of Kazakhstan’s exterior commerce. International direct funding is essential. Traditionally, the U.S. has supplied 18 % of international direct funding into the nation and will construct on this base by means of export credit and funding incentives. The EX-IM Financial institution’s paltry $14,000 of help for exports to Kazakhstan in 2020 have to be elevated considerably.

Third, the U.S. ought to distinguish itself from China and Russia by supporting — not imposing — democracy and institutional reform urgently wanted following January unrest. It’s not clear whether or not President Tokayev’s new commitments to restrict presidential energy and restore the judiciary will be trusted. The U.S. ought to cautiously help his efforts, whereas concurrently strengthening relations with others dedicated each to implementing the reform objectives expressed in a referendum final month and guaranteeing an impartial Kazakh international coverage.

Lastly, the U.S. should not permit Kazakhstan and the area to be caught within the crossfire of the Ukraine warfare. Doing so will push Kazakhstan towards Beijing or Moscow. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s expressed dedication to Kazakhstan’s international minister to reduce the affect of sanctions is a begin. Kazakhstan depends on Russian oil pipelines for exports and dangers direct, chilling results from vitality sanctions. The U.S. ought to make clear the attain of sanctions and grant Workplace of International Property Management licenses the place mandatory. Whereas the area’s highly effective enterprise leaders are removed from good, they supply important political and financial hyperlinks between Russia and the West. The U.S. should scrupulously keep away from driving them into the arms of Moscow and Beijing by means of sanctions that go too far.

William Burke-White is a professor of regulation on the College of Pennsylvania Carey Regulation Faculty, nonresident senior fellow of The Brookings Establishment, and was a member of the Secretary of State’s coverage planning workers from 2009-2011. Mochen (Phil) Ma, a JD candidate at Penn, contributed to this text.