[ad_1]
ANKARA: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated on Friday that Turkey is in no rush to stage a brand new navy operation towards armed Kurdish militants.
However regional actors have voiced their issues over the potential Turkish offensive towards the cities of Tal Rifaat and Manbij.
“No want for hurry. We don’t want to try this,” Erdogan informed journalists in Madrid, the place he met with US President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the NATO summit. Erdogan supplied no timeline for the deliberate operation.
The stakes are excessive. Consultants imagine that Turkey nonetheless lacks Russian backing for a navy intervention towards Syrian Kurdish Folks’s Safety Models (YPG), which Ankara considers to be a terror group with direct hyperlinks to the outlawed Kurdistan Employees’ Occasion (PKK).
Oytun Orhan, coordinator of Syria research on the ORSAM assume tank in Ankara, stated that Russia’s failure to again the operation stays its main impediment.
“Ankara determined to launch a navy offensive on Syria whereas the world’s consideration is concentrated on the conflict in Ukraine — and after 1000’s of Russian troops withdrew from Ukraine. Nonetheless, Russia can not threat wanting weak in each Ukraine or Syria by giving the greenlight to a Turkish operation now,” he informed Arab Information.
Orhan famous that Turkey solely hit targets alongside the Turkish-Syrian border as retaliation towards assaults by the YPG.
“I don’t anticipate a larger-scale operation through which the Syrian Nationwide Military would function floor forces and the Turkish navy would give aerial assist,” he stated.
Ankara has beforehand carried out three navy operations within the space: Euphrates Defend in 2016, Olive Department in 2018, and Peace Spring in 2019.
Troop numbers from each Russia and the Syrian regime have been growing in northern Syria since early June forward of a possible Turkish operation.
Iran has additionally been very vocal in its opposition of any Turkish navy operation within the space.
Iranian Overseas Ministry spokesperson Saaed Khatibzadeh not too long ago stated: “The Syria file is a matter of dispute between us and Turkey.”
On Saturday, Iran’s overseas minister paid a go to to Damascus following Turkey’s threats to launch the brand new offensive.
“Each from an ideological and strategic perspective, Iran accords significance to defending Shiite settlements — particularly the 2 Shiite cities of Nubl and Al-Zahra. And there are additionally some Shiite militia combating together with the YPG in Tal Rifaat,” Orhan stated.
“Nonetheless, at this level, Russia’s place is way more (vital to Turkey) than Iran’s issues, as a result of Russia controls the airspace in northern Syria and it must withdraw Russian forces earlier than approving any Turkish operation,” he added.
Some specialists have advised that Turkey used its potential Syria operation as a bargaining chip throughout its current negotiations with Washington. When Erdogan met Biden on June 29, they mentioned the significance of sustaining stability in Syria, in line with the White Home readout.
The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), primarily led by the YPG, nonetheless holds massive areas of northeast Syria. Syrian Kurds are regarded by Washington as an vital ally towards Daesh.
Though the Biden administration has repeatedly stated that it acknowledges Turkey’s safety issues, it has additionally warned that any Turkish operation in northern Syria may put US troops in danger, and undermine the struggle towards Daesh.
Hamidreza Azizi, CATS fellow on the German Institute for Worldwide and Safety Affairs, thinks that, given the course of occasions, the Turkish operation is inevitable.
“It (will) occur in the end. As a result of Turkish leaders have been maneuvering on what they see as threats Turkey is going through from northern Syria, we should always anticipate some form of navy operation,” he informed Arab Information.
“However the scope of the operation has been a matter of hypothesis as a result of, to start with, Turkish officers have been speaking a couple of huge space from Tal Rifaat and Manbij to east of the Euphrates, however they reconsidered after US opposition to the growth of the operation east of the Euphrates,” Azizi stated.
Azizi expects a restricted operation to occur, the principle intention of which might be to develop Turkey’s zone of affect within the space.
Turkey’s unique plan had been to ascertain a 30 kilometer-deep safety zone alongside its southern border each to push again the YPG and to repatriate round 1 million Syrian refugees in a wider secure zone.
President Erdogan not too long ago introduced a reconstruction plan to allow Syrians to return to their homeland.
Azizi believes that “the principle friction” over this potential operation can be between Iran and Turkey.
“Iran is anxious as a result of if Turkey — or Turkish-backed troops — management Tal Rifaat, they’ve entry to Aleppo, the place Iran is current, which can give them additional entry to central Syria.”
Iran continues to be a key ally of Syrian President Bashar Assad, but in addition an vital commerce companion for Turkey.
Except Turkey is ready to give you a brand new plan that alleviates Iran’s issues, Azizi expects a response from the Iranian facet — albeit an oblique one through proxy forces.
“Such a transfer may push Turkey to additional strengthen ties with Arab states and cooperate additional with Israel,” he stated.
-ENDS-
[ad_2]
Source link
