At a crossroads with Kazakhstan

In 1991, Secretary of State James A. Baker III journeyed to the newly impartial Republic of Kazakhstan to satisfy with its president, Nursultan Nazarbayev. The coverage goals within the 31 years since of U.S.-Kazakh relations have centered on three areas: diversifying international sources of vitality by capitalizing on Kazakhstan’s world-class vitality reserves; supporting a authorities extra conscious of the individuals by the promotion of democracy and safety of human rights; and development of free market enterprise. Following 9/11, U.S. policymakers took better curiosity within the area to assist the conflict in Afghanistan and stop the unfold of violent extremism.

Kazakhstan took transformative steps in its infancy on nuclear nonproliferation, scorning the huge arsenal of nuclear weapons it inherited from the united states and turning into the world’s main vitality uranium producer. These steps set the tone for Kazakhstan to turn into a key participant in Central Asia by its multi-vector international coverage, designed to stability the pull from three international powers: Russia, China and the US. 

Within the Nineteen Eighties, California-based vitality firm Chevron initiated negotiations with the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic to buy possession of resource-rich western oil fields, akin to Tengiz. By 1993, Chevron turned the primary and largest international investor into impartial Kazakhstan. Different U.S. firms, together with ExxonMobil, adopted swimsuit.

The terrorist assaults of 9/11 demonstrated the safety significance of Central Asia to the US. Kazakhstan proved to be able to cooperation in strategic counter-terrorism, together with the dispatching of navy engineers to Iraq in 2003 and the facilitation of U.S. and NATO troops’ air and land transit by Kazakhstani bases. The U.S.’s shambolic exit from Afghanistan in 2021 revealed a discount of U.S. curiosity within the area.

Kazakhstan made international headlines in January 2022, when civic protests over the rise within the value of liquified petroleum gasoline had been met by a violent response from the federal government. Kazakhstan’s second president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, a one-time United Nations bureaucrat and former international minister, issued an order to “shoot to kill with out warning” — leading to 232 deaths, 9,000 detentions, and 6 deaths by torture in detention — that has shattered the fame of stability Kazakhstan had loved in a turbulent area.

In coping with the challenges of a revanchist Moscow and a rising Beijing, Washington can not look to Nur-Sultan as an offshore balancer. Tokayev has publicly known as Putin his “comrade,” consults with him ceaselessly, and was the one head of state to attend the St. Petersburg Financial Discussion board in Russia, earlier than touring to Iran — each international locations topic to U.S. and worldwide sanctions. Throughout his presidency, Tokayev has labored to strengthen Kazakhstan’s ties with its treaty ally, Russia, by way of the Collective Safety Treaty Group (CSTO) and the Eurasian Financial Union (EEU). 

Whereas Kazakhstan pushes for financial integration between the EEU and China’s latest tasks, together with the Belt and Highway Initiative, China’s funding could have reached its excessive level. Structurally, Kazakhstan is just not transferring towards better independence however kicking the three-legged stool of multi-vector international coverage and sinking in between two smothering elephants: Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping.

Sanctions on Russian oil ensuing from Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine have resulted in a rise within the value of vitality not seen for the reason that Arab oil embargo within the Nineteen Seventies. The Kremlin, lengthy skilled in utilizing vitality as a political weapon, is shutting off provide to Europe, requiring the West to discover a better quantity of oil and gasoline impartial of Moscow’s management. 

President Biden has appealed to Saudi Arabia, to attempt to acquire extra hydrocarbon options to Russia. Kazakhstan regrettably falls exterior of this class, since its most export capability is insignificant in comparison with its Saudi counterpart and 80 p.c of Kazakhstan’s sources go by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) by way of Russia on its technique to Europe. Additionally, U.S. firms are minor gamers within the CPC; sanctioned Russian firms — Transneft, Rosneft and LukArco — account for 36.5 p.c of the shareholders, in comparison with Chevron’s 15 p.c. 

Whereas diplomats from Nur-Sultan are saying the fitting issues about upholding Western sanctions, enterprise actions and authorities actions put the Kazakh financial system on a excessive wire. Kazakhstan faces the actual chance of secondary sanctions in opposition to the backdrop of the conflict in Ukraine. Whereas the main target of the Treasury Division’s Workplace of Overseas Asset Management rightly has been on Russia, discussions could also be restarted about a global effort to implement International Magnitsky Act sanctions on these accountable for violence in opposition to civilians through the January protests.

The Biden administration has highlighted human rights as a international coverage precedence and can’t permit the Russian conflict in Ukraine to forestall a response to the occasions in January in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan’s latest historical past has been a gradual enchancment in liberty and high quality of life that’s primarily characterised by distancing itself from Moscow, however Tokayev has failed to select up the mantle. 

The US must see extra from Kazakhstan. An indication of Kazakhstan’s continued curiosity in rising relations with the U.S. ought to be the discharge of all these arbitrarily detained following “Bloody January,” together with Dr. Karim Massimov, two-time former prime minister and dependable U.S. buddy. It is a key first step for Kazakhstan to rebuild a productive relationship with Washington and regain its fame as a main recipient of frontier capital.

David A. Merkel is an affiliate fellow for geoeconomics and technique with the Worldwide Institute for Strategic Research. He was deputy assistant secretary for European and Eurasian affairs on the State Division, director for South and Central Asia on the Nationwide Safety Council, and deputy assistant secretary of Treasury.