U.S. Grand Strategy Should Include Cyprus

The defining ideological struggle of the twenty first century is between nations ruled by the rule of legislation, in favor of constructing and sustaining a rules-based worldwide system, and lawless states that search to revert to an anarchic world order “the place the sturdy do what they’ll and the weak undergo what they have to.” The previous is represented by the West, led by the USA and the European Union (EU). The latter embody revisionist powers similar to Russia and Turkey.

Given its strategic location on the crossroads of Europe, the Center East, and North Africa, the Republic of Cyprus has an essential function to play on this ideological contest. Whereas Nicosia is 1,000 kilometers from Athens, it is just 250 kilometers from Beirut, 330 kilometers from Damascus, 600 kilometers from Cairo, 1,000 kilometers from Baghdad, and 1,600 kilometers from Tehran. What’s extra, Cyprus additionally supplies simpler entry to the Black Sea than Italy or France. Thus, together with Cyprus within the U.S.’ grand technique by increasing bilateral and multilateral safety agreements would allow the U.S. to undertaking energy on no less than three completely different axes.

Over time, Cyprus earned the nickname “Moscow on the Med” by courting Russian capital. When touchdown in Larnaca or Paphos, vacationers are greeted in Russian alongside the native Greek and English due to the overwhelming Russian presence. In Limassol, the second largest metropolis in Cyprus, greater than 1 out of each 5 folks is Russian. Final 12 months, the Central Financial institution of Russia reported that Cyprus was the highest vacation spot for Russian international funding—at a whopping $193 billion. To place this colossal determine into perspective, the second and third most popular locations for Russian international funding have been the Netherlands at $32 billion, and Austria at $29 billion. The Nicosia-Moscow connection, like Turkey’s continued occupation of Cyprus, is a failure of EU and U.S. international coverage.

In 1974, Turkey invaded Cyprus and has since established a de-facto state on the northern third of the island. In some ways, Turkey’s invasion of Cyprus offered the blueprint for Russia’s recolonization of former Soviet territories. Notably, Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian Crimea in 2014 and its subsequent full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. To the dissatisfaction of many Cypriots who depend on Russian capital and tourism to make a dwelling, the federal government of Cyprus has complied with EU sanctions in opposition to Russia. On the one hand, this drastic change in Cypriot international coverage has left an infinite vacuum to be stuffed domestically. However, it has additionally offered the U.S. with a strategic alternative to weaken Russia’s affect within the japanese Mediterranean. Naturally, the U.S. should fill the void left by Russia in Cyprus and solidify Nicosia’s pivot away from Moscow.

To incorporate Cyprus in U.S. grand technique, the U.S. should proceed transitioning from an japanese Mediterranean technique that accommodates Turkey to at least one that favors Greece and Cyprus. Traditionally, U.S. policymakers sought to strike a stability between Greece and Turkey by supporting each NATO companions whereas guaranteeing that not one of the events gained a big navy benefit over the opposite. In latest many years, nevertheless, the U.S. has tolerated Turkey’s transgressions within the title of strategic necessity. This lodging, coupled with the U.S.’ pivot to Asia and its incremental withdrawal from the Center East—first, dialing down its involvement in Iraq and Syria after which withdrawing from Afghanistan altogether—has emboldened President Recep Erdogan, fueled his revisionist ideology, and shifted the stability of energy within the japanese Mediterranean in favor of Turkey.

This technique has been counterproductive. Whereas Greece and Cyprus have complied with EU sanctions in opposition to Russia and have been pillars of stability within the japanese Mediterranean, Turkey has solely change into extra ambivalent and fewer dependable as a accomplice to the West. Whether or not taking part in either side in Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, embarking on international adventures in Libya, Syria, and Iraq, buying S-400 missile protection programs from Russia, granting secure passage to jihadists, contesting Greece’s sovereignty over islands within the Aegean Sea, or illegally occupying 37 p.c of Cyprus for 48 years, Turkey’s dedication to regional stability and the rules-based worldwide order is questionable at greatest.

Right now, there are indications that U.S. policymakers are modifying their technique to replicate the geopolitical actuality of the japanese Mediterranean and the Center East: particularly, that Turkey is a revisionist energy vying for regional hegemony. Contemplate that the U.S. has excluded Turkey from the F-35 program whereas together with Greece. In one other occasion, the U.S. prevented the modernization of Turkey’s air power by blocking the sale of F-16s whereas renewing and lengthening basing agreements with Greece. Though these are constructive developments for the regional stability of energy, there’s nonetheless vital room for enchancment.

Extra have to be achieved to assist modernize Cyprus’ military. France has taken the lead by promoting Nicosia surface-to-air and anti-ship missiles in addition to fighter helicopters. Just some days in the past, Israel agreed to promote Cyprus its Iron Dome Missile-Protection System. Partially lifting the U.S.’ arms embargo in opposition to Cyprus to permit the sale of non-lethal navy items was additionally a step in the fitting course, however even a whole finish to the arms embargo would fall quick of what’s wanted to revive the stability of energy within the japanese Mediterranean: U.S. strategic re-engagement with the area.

Nicosia’s pivot away from Russia, coupled with the Russian withdrawal from Cyprus and Turkey’s ambivalence within the japanese Mediterranean supplies the U.S. with the right alternative to re-engage with the area. Together with Cyprus in U.S. grand technique would allow it to undertaking energy on three completely different axes whereas safeguarding the rules-based worldwide order and balancing revisionist powers within the area. It might even maintain the important thing to reunifying Cyprus.

George Monastiriakos is a lawyer licensing candidate, rapper, investor, and traveler who writes about politics and world affairs. He will be reached on Twitter @monastiriakos.

The views expressed on this article are the author’s personal.