BJP Losing More Than 80 Seats In 2024 Lok Sabha Polls Is Not Impossible

By Nitya Chakraborty

Simply eighteen months at the moment are left for the holding of the subsequent Lok Sabha elections in March/April of 2024. BJP has been speaking of a “Congress-mukt Bharat”, whereas the Telangana Chief Minister Ok. Chandrasekhar Rao referred to as for “BJP-mukt India” in Patna on Wednesday within the presence of the Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. The latter has already declared that he would begin assembly all of the opposition leaders to type a viable entrance to battle the BJP within the coming polls.

Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal is most indignant towards the BJP now as each the CBI and ED are haunting the senior AAP leaders. Already searches have been made at his deputy CM Manish Sisodia’s residence and the LG of Delhi V Ok Saxena is up in arms towards the CM. The AAP authorities is beneath siege by the BJP-led centre. Kejriwal in his personal means has given a name for the overthrow of the Narendra Modi authorities on the centre within the coming Lok Sabha polls.

So, the place do all these developments result in? Already some media publications and ballot forecasting businesses have carried out some surveys concerning the temper of the nation, one and half 12 months earlier than the Lok Sabha polls. The projections naturally fluctuate however there may be one assembly level — the BJP will lose seats, although Prime Minister Narendra Modi is perhaps forming the federal government with a small majority. Even the BJP ballot trackers, as per the sources, are reported to have given various evaluation concerning the BJP’s fortunes starting from slim majority on the higher finish to between 240 and 250.

This author has made some zone-wise estimates on the premise of the 2019 ballot outcomes together with the modifications evident by means of rural and concrete our bodies polls within the states as additionally the by polls which have taken place within the final 39 months because the 2019 polls. My submission is that in 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP reached its peak with 303 seats out of the full 543, and now this determine can solely go down, however the query is to what extent? The Congress beneath Rajiv Gandhi bought 404 seats in 1984 Lok Sabha polls, however the determine got here right down to lower than 50 per cent within the subsequent polls in1989. Rajiv didn’t type the federal government on the centre.

I’m ranging from the southern zone the place the BJP is weakest. The southern states of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka have a complete of 129 seats, out of which BJP has 29 seats — 25 from Karnataka and 4 from Telangana. As of now, there is no such thing as a query of BJP getting any seat from TN and Kerala. In Andhra Pradesh, the BJP has its stronghold in two districts, however the YCSRC led by the Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy has accomplished in depth work in these districts which have been mirrored within the native physique elections some months again. Jagan is solidly entrenched, and neither the BJP, nor the Congress is able to create any crack in his assist base. As regards Telangana, the BJP has made some inroads in city areas, however the TRC chief KCR has checked its advance. All studies recommend that there is no such thing as a query of BJP gaining any extra seat above the current 4. Actually, the determine could go down by one.

Now the true battlefield state in South, Karnataka, goes to witness a fierce battle in each the approaching meeting elections in early 2023 as additionally in 2024 Lok Sabha polls. In 2019 polls, the BJP bought 25 seats out of the full of 28, the Congress bought one, JD(S) one and an NDA supported candidate bought one. The Congress fashioned ministry in Karnataka after the final meeting elections, however the defections organised by the BJP led to the autumn of the federal government and the formation of the BJP ministry. Presently, the BJP authorities in Karnataka is in a multitude. The ministers are overtly creating wealth and for the primary time, the contractors affiliation have come out towards the federal government alleging that no order may very well be obtained from the Karnataka authorities departments with out giving 40 per cent of the quantity as bribe. Astounding certainly.

I’ve checked with my outdated sources in IT business in Bengaluru, the Silicon Valley of India. The IT honchos who supported Narendra Modi within the final Lok Sabha polls are fearful. The social concord within the state is at stake as the perimeter Hindutva teams are on a rampage in Karnataka with no management from the state authorities. The worry is that the state BJP will go to its excessive to play the communal card, simply because the social gathering performed in state meeting elections in Uttar Pradesh.  The Congress has good base in rural areas in Karnataka. Presently, the 2 high leaders —former chief minister Siddaramaiah and the state president D Ok Shivkumar—are working collectively. That’s a superb signal. If the Congress group might be correctly galvanized, the Celebration is anticipated to do effectively in each meeting and the Lok Sabha polls. The Congress has the potential to extract one other ten seats from the BJP within the Lok Sabha polls if all the things goes effectively for the Celebration.

Now concerning the jap area together with Bengal, Bihar, Odisha and Jharkhand. In Bengal, by all counts, BJP will likely be shedding minimal 12 seats within the subsequent Lok Sabha polls. In 2019 polls, the BJP bought 18 seats from 4 seats in 2014 polls. Within the interval because the final Lok Sabha polls, all ballot outcomes together with meeting, civic polls and by polls present persevering with decline within the BJP assist base. Mamata Banerjee and TMC are presently bogged within the corruption associated problems with former minister Partha Chatterjee and highly effective Birbhum district president Anubrata Mandal, however this won’t have an effect on in any respect the TMC prospects within the coming panchayat elections in 2023 and the Lok Sabha polls in 2024. Prashant Kishor’s company I-PAC has silently accomplished the groundwork to construct a strong ballot equipment and as of now, and BJP is not any match to it. Mamata Banerjee’s conventional base among the many Muslims, village and concrete poor and ladies is unbroken.

Bihar is one other state which is able to assist in sealing the destiny of the BJP. Out of 40 seats, BJP bought 17 seats in 2019 polls whereas the JD(U) bought 15 as its NDA ally and LJP 6. The current mixture of Mahagathbandhan in Bihar is predicated on a widest social   composition within the state masking 70 per cent of the citizens. BJP will likely be fortunate to get even two to a few seats from this state. BJP that means will lose minimal 14 to fifteen seats in Bihar, Nitish Kumar’s projection because the potential PM can even have its impression on the BJP plenty as Bihar has by no means had a Bihari PM. In different two states, Odisha and Jharkhand, the BJP will make all efforts to enhance however in Odisha, with BJD led by Naveen Patnaik in full management, the BJP hopes could not materialize. Actually, BJP seats could go down from the current 8 out of the full seats of 21. In Jharkhand additionally, the BJP bought a maximum11 out of the full seats of 14. The BJP seats could go down, if the alliance led by Hemant Soren sticks collectively and works collectively.

For BJP, the northern states are the principle path to its highway to energy on the centre. This area has 192 seats and within the 2019 ballot, the BJP bought 156 seats, an unusually excessive quantity taking account the truth that the BJP bought 28 out of 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh, 25 out of 26 seats in Rajasthan and 9 out of 11 seats in Chhattisgarh. The 2019 Lok Sabha ballot outcomes had been uncommon bearing in mind the energy of the Congress in these three states. Kamal Nath, Ashok Gehlot and Bhupesh Baghel are seasoned leaders and they’re absolutely concerned in organisational work additionally. There’s a good risk of BJP shedding no less than 25 seats out of the current whole of 62 seats at current.

As regards Uttar Pradesh which sends 80 members to Lok Sabha, BJP bought 62 seats in 2019 elections, BSP 10, SP 5 and the Congress 1 the only seat of Sonia Gandhi. In UP, now BSP is on a decline and a significant a part of its base has gone to BJP and the Samajwadi Celebration. The SP is working exhausting and it has the potential to seize the seats earlier held   by the BSP. However the truth is that the UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath has been capable of vastly enhance his administration in comparison with two years again. The supply system of providers has improved and that is having impression. This together with Hindutva drive ought to assist BJP in Lok Sabha elections. SP could enhance however that might not be a lot. The BJP excessive command is aware of the significance of UP and that’s the reason the BJP duo Narendra Modi and Amit Shah are immediate in taking corrective actions, when these are wanted. BJP will search to enhance its place in UP. Now it depends upon Samajwadi Celebration and its chief Akhilesh Yadav how he meets the problem.

In Punjab, BJP has solely two seats out of the full of 13. The social gathering is in such pathetic situation within the state that they might even lose each the seats. Then in Delhi, BJP bought all seven within the final Lok Sabha polls. Now the scenario is totally completely different. Regardless of some quantity of melodrama within the behaviour of the Delhi Chief Minister and AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal, AAP has been capable of show its value to the Delhi citizens. It won’t be shocking   if AAP will get about 5 out of seven seats within the subsequent Lok Sabha polls. Then in Haryana additionally, the BJP can’t keep the extent of the current 10 seats out of ten. The Celebration can lose one or two.   For AAP, the Lok Sabha polls in Punjab will likely be a giant take a look at for bettering its tally. It will likely be at the price of the Congress and the BJP.

In Western area, the   two main states Maharashtra and Gujarat have a complete of 74 seats out of which BJP bought 49 seats 23 in Maharashtra and all 26 in Gujarat. Proper now, Maharashtra political scene is in fluid state, It’s not clear to what extent Eknath Shinde has been capable of take the Shiv Sena base in his favour. BJP-Eknath mixture will likely be formidable if Eknath is in a position   to take over Uddhav. Base some thought will likely be obtainable after the Mumbai company elections shortly. In any case, the BJP bought most in 2019 polls, its scope for gaining is just not a lot.

Within the North East area, out of the 25 seats, the BJP has bought 12 and the regional events   the remaining 13. The BJP has bought 9 seats in Assam out of 14 in final ballot. The Assam Congress remains to be not in greatest form, but when it allies   with the regional anti-BJP events in 2024 polls, it has some potentialities.  Trinamool Congress can even attempt to be part of anti-BJP alliance   earlier than the 2024 polls. However nonetheless the benefit is with BJP as Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sharma is a crafty political chief and he’ll use all methods to get the opposition divided in Assam. In any case, there may be little scope for BJP gaining a lot in NE states. The regional events in NE at all times assist the ruling mixture on the centre, whether or not it’s BJP or the Congress. If there’s a hung Parliament after the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP can’t ensure that the current NDA events will stick with it.  In Tripura additionally, the BJP has bought all two seats but when there may be an alliance   between the CPI(M) led Left Entrance, Congress and Trinamool, BJP will lose each the seats.

General, the place is that the bottom scenario is match for making the BJP lose round 80 to 83 seats nationally, if solely the Congress performs its function correctly. The Congress is the principle opposition social gathering dealing with the BJP in 170 to 180 seats. The Celebration has to make sure the defeat of BJP in extra 50 seats out of those as towards the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The Congress will lose its two seats in Bengal and in addition greater than 5 seats in Kerala to the Left Democratic Entrance. The Celebration has to make up this loss by its acquire from the opposite states. The anti-BJP regional events are set to do higher towards the BJP, now it’s the Congress and the Congress alone on whose   efficiency relies upon whether or not the BJP will likely be a minority social gathering. The Congress has to the touch the determine of 100 in 2024 polls as towards 52 in 2019 polls to make a non-BJP coalition doable. If the Congress fails, the BJP will likely be on the centre for the third time after 2024 polls. (IPA   Service)

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