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On the face of it, the joint communique issued on the finish of Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s go to to New Delhi on September 7 was fairly spectacular, with India being concerned in quite a few big-ticket infrastructure and connectivity initiatives. However the communique glossed over the Teesta River water-sharing difficulty, which is vital for Bangladesh – and in addition for the political way forward for Hasina, arguably the one steadfast pal of India in Bangladesh.
Dodging the Teesta difficulty is not going to be in India’s curiosity, as it’s a politically emotive one in Bangladesh.
The Joint Communique undoubtedly seems good from the Indian viewpoint. In accordance with Asit Ranjan Mishra of Enterprise Customary, Bangladesh had turn out to be India’s fourth-largest export vacation spot within the fiscal yr 2022, leaping 5 locations in two years. And that development seems set to proceed.
“Because of the potential bilateral commerce settlement, there exists a possible of extra export from India to Bangladesh, starting from $4 billion to $10 billion. This export potential along with current exports might be achieved by India in a time span of 5 years,” Mishra wrote, quoting from the joint examine carried out by Bangladesh and India on their proposed Complete Financial Partnership Settlement (CEPA).
Bangladesh too will acquire, albeit from a decrease base. “The potential for added exports to India may vary from $3 billion to $ 5 billion in a time span of 10 years,” the examine discovered. “The whole extra potential bilateral features in commerce in items as a result of a potential CEPA ranges between $7 billion to $15 billion.”
India is the biggest marketplace for Bangladeshi exports in Asia. Nevertheless, Bangladesh exports solely $1.9 billion value of products to India, towards imports totaling $16.15 billion. This hole must be lowered. A yawning commerce deficit between the neighbors will have an effect on bilateral relations.
The September 7 joint communique stated that the 2 prime ministers directed commerce officers to begin negotiations for CEPA earlier than the top of 2022 and to finish these as quickly as potential, in time for Bangladesh’s last commencement from least developed nation (LDC) standing in 2026. The FTA will assist Bangladesh within the context of the transition.
Past commerce ties, India helps assemble the Rupsha rail bridge to attach the upcoming Mongla port in Bangladesh’s south to Khulna. Each the rail line and the port are being financed beneath a concessional line of credit from India, as introduced throughout Hasina’s journey to India. The mission is to value $389 million.
Each Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Hasina inaugurated the primary unit of the Maitri Tremendous Thermal Energy mission in Bangladesh. The mission will add 1,320 Mw in Bangladesh. Indian tycoon Gautam Adani will provide extra energy to Bangladesh from his upcoming energy mission in Jharkhand, set to be operational from December 16.
Rivers Subject
That leaves the 2 nations with the unsolved river water difficulty. This difficulty was sidestepped within the joint communique, which solely stated that Hasina raised it. There was no clue as to what the Indian aspect stated in reply.
As I’ve written elsewhere, within the lean season, the Teesta River is dry as a bone. However each nations want giant quantities of water as they’ve inspired rice paddy cultivation through the dry season. Each nations had constructed diversion dams (or barrages) on Teesta, solely about 100 kilometers aside, to offer irrigation to round 920,000 hectares in West Bengal in India and 750,000 in Bangladesh – over 1.6 million hectares in complete.
The Gajaldoba barrage in India and the Teesta barrage in Bangladesh impound water for irrigation. Downstream, the lowered circulate creates giant dry tracts of sand which are devoid of fertile silt. The solar bakes them into exhausting islands, unsuitable for cultivation. Within the monsoon, these tracts constrict the circulate of the river and the swelling waters inundate the neighboring fields. Yearly crops are destroyed.
Recognizing the shortage of enough water within the Teesta, a committee of the West Bengal authorities beneath Indevar Pandey, principal secretary of the Public Works Division, determined that the state would irrigate solely 52,000 hectares with the Teesta’s water, a discount of over 90 p.c from the unique plan. Pandey was against sharing extra water with Bangladesh due to the shortage of water.
Hydropower era is one other drawback. Throughout the lean season, all giant crops must impound water for energy era, which reduces the circulate of the river. The Indian state of Sikkim has quite a few such energy stations on the Teesta River.
West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee had stated that she would enable extra Teesta waters to be launched to Bangladesh if West Bengal acquired water from inter-linked Indian rivers. However interlinking rivers has been an unrealized dream in India for a very long time. As in Bangladesh, in West Bengal too, water is a politically delicate difficulty affecting thousands and thousands of poor people who find themselves voters in elections. Politicians will at all times cater to their potential voters, not voters out of the country.
India’s Strategic and Political Curiosity in Resolving the Teesta Subject
Nevertheless, India has strategic pursuits to bear in mind as nicely. If New Delhi is to maintain its rival China at bay within the neighborhood (together with Bangladesh), it has to match China when it comes to constructing infrastructure and rising funding and commerce with these nations. However this isn’t all. Equal significance must be given to the wants of the typical residents in these nations, their issues and views. The Teesta waters difficulty is a farmers’ difficulty, a layperson’s difficulty. And the typical citizen is the ultimate arbiter in a democracy.
Addressing the typical Bangladeshi’s issues can pay wealthy dividends to India on a long-term foundation, stated a Bangladeshi commentator. “A relationship based mostly on compassion and understanding will final for an extended time than one based mostly on {dollars} and brick and mortar initiatives,” he stated.
If India is to assist Hasina, its solely real pal in Bangladesh, it has to assist her by way of insurance policies that may give her political credit score. Although she seems unchallenged now, with the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Get together (BNP) in tatters and leaderless, she must face an anti-incumbency issue on the polls in 2023. Even when the weak BNP is unable to take advantage of it, Islamic radicals may exploit widespread discontent to India’s discomfiture. Now’s the time for New Delhi to deal with the Teesta difficulty.
Concurrently, each India and Bangladesh may collectively devise applications to encourage farmers served by the Teesta River, on either side of the border, to go for crops which are much less water-intensive than rice. Drip irrigation is also launched. There are a number of methods to sort out the difficulty, however any answer would require consideration and political will from either side.
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