Azerbaijan-Armenia War and Biden’s Good Vs. Bad Frame on China-Russia

• Azerbaijan reignited a longstanding battle with Armenia final week.
• The 2 international locations are a part of an online of partnerships with Russia and its Western rivals.
• These overlapping relationships present the folly of basing US coverage on “good” democracies vs. “unhealthy” autocracies.

Azerbaijan started shelling positions throughout its border with Armenia final week, reigniting a longstanding battle between the 2 international locations.

Because the breakup of the Soviet Union, Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought a number of wars over the standing of the Nagorno-Karabakh area, a primarily Armenian ethnic enclave inside Azerbaijan that Armenia acknowledges as a separate republic referred to as Artsakh, and with which Armenia has lengthy desired unification.

An Armenian victory within the early Nineties gave it management over Nagorno-Karabakh and a big hall of Azerbaijani territory linking it to Armenia correct, however a warfare in 2020 resulted in a decisive Azeri victory that reestablished Azerbaijan’s management over the disputed territories.

The battle between Armenia and Azerbaijan is just one a part of a broader geopolitical contest, nevertheless.

Whereas Armenia and Azerbaijan each have heat relations with Russia, Armenia has a safety settlement with Russia as a part of the Collective Safety Treaty Group (CSTO), an alliance of six post-Soviet states in Central Asia.

Azerbaijan, alternatively, whose inhabitants is primarily ethnically and linguistically Turkic and religiously Muslim, enjoys agency help from Turkey.

Turkey and Armenia have lengthy been at odds, and the shadow of the Ottoman genocide of Armenians in 1915 continues to fall over relations between the neighboring international locations.

In recent times, Ankara has sought an unbiased course with Moscow, regardless of being a NATO member. On the one hand, Erdogan has sought to keep up cordial relations with Putin, significantly within the wake of a failed 2016 coup which raised suspicions in Ankara in regards to the West’s complicity. Extra just lately, Erdogan has acted as a diplomatic dealer within the Ukraine warfare and has bucked Western sanctions by buying Russian navy {hardware}.

Alternatively, Turkey and Russia compete for affect over the states surrounding the Caspian Sea, a area which each Moscow and Ankara view as a rightful inheritance of their imperial legacy. Russia and Turkey additionally backed reverse sides throughout the brutal Syrian civil warfare, culminating in a momentary worldwide disaster following the Turkish downing of a Russian fighter jet in 2015.

It’s possible that the timing of the newest flare-up between Armenia and Azerbaijan was not coincidental.

Azerbaijan was doubtless emboldened to launch the current assault on Armenia by the profitable Ukrainian counteroffensive round Kharkiv and Russia’s typically poor efficiency throughout the Ukraine warfare.

Armenia’s devastating defeat in 2020 led analysts to conclude that Russian-supplied gear was ineffective in combating superior drone know-how provided to Azerbaijan by Turkey and Israel, whereas the Atlantic Council interpreted Russia’s unwillingness to intervene instantly on Armenia’s behalf as an indication of underlying weak spot.

The US has characterised its competitors with Russia and China as a battle between democracy and autocracy for the way forward for the “rules-based worldwide order.” However the not-so-frozen Azeri-Armenian battle offers an ironic counterpoint, belying the narrative that Putin is primarily motivated by a concern of democracies or common revolutions amongst Russia’s neighbors.

Armenia, a small democracy that underwent a revolution in 2018, has primarily been backed by Russia and Iran, whereas Azerbaijan, a dynastic dictatorship with a lot larger wealth and inhabitants, has been constantly supported by each NATO-member Turkey and Israel, which claims to be the one democracy within the Center East.

The ironies do not finish there. Armenian-People have a potent foyer within the US primarily based in congressional districts like California’s twenty eighth, house to Rep. Adam Schiff, who, amongst different roles, is the vice-chair of the Congressional Armenian Caucus and has been awarded the State Order by the Armenian authorities.

Schiff made a nationwide identify for himself because the rating member of the Home Choose Intelligence Committee, and one of the public faces of the “Russiagate” investigation that contributed in the direction of souring US-Russian relations.

In the course of the first impeachment of Trump in January 2020, Schiff acknowledged that “the US aids Ukraine and her individuals in order that we will combat Russia over there and we do not have to combat Russia right here.” But within the wake of Russia’s setback in Ukraine, Azerbaijan’s assault on Armenia drew swift condemnation from Schiff, who has launched laws to halt US support to Azerbaijan.

The advanced politics of the Armenia-Azerbaijan battle display the folly of conducting US overseas coverage in line with a Manichean division between “good” democracies and “unhealthy” autocracies. Additionally they spotlight the truth that a navy alliance like NATO doesn’t essentially equal a everlasting concord of pursuits between all its members.

Lastly, as Russia totters from its failures on the battlefield in Ukraine, and as renewed tensions flare between different post-Soviet states like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, it’s price contemplating what the unintended penalties of a destabilized Russia may be for its Eurasian neighbors.

Christopher McCallion is a fellow at Protection Priorities.