Why Mongolia Is Steering Clear of Full Membership in the SCO – The Diplomat

Samarkand, Uzbekistan, grew to become the middle of world consideration in mid-September as leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organizations (SCO) states gathered to debate the group’s objectives, challenges, and tips on how to sort out urgent international points. Throughout the twenty second Assembly of the Council of Heads of State of the SCO, Mongolia reiterated Ulaanbaatar’s place to keep up its observer standing; nevertheless, Mongolia will nonetheless be energetic in regional commerce and financial actions.

In 2004, Mongolia grew to become the primary observer state within the SCO through the Tashkent Summit, adopted by India, Pakistan, and Iran in 2005. All three of the latter states have chosen to accede to full membership. Though relations between the SCO and Mongolia have developed previously decade, Ulaanbaatar has been hesitant to turn into a full member. Mongolia’s considerations stem not solely from Ulaanbaatar’s international coverage outlook however tendencies in regional worldwide relations.

When the SCO first started in 2001, member states targeted on retaining the safety established order and counterterrorism. The SCO has the scope and potential to be an important contributor to international peace and safety as two of its member nations (China and Russia) are additionally a part of the U.N. Safety Council, and 4 are nuclear weapons states.

Nonetheless, fulfilling this potential closely relies on the management of every member state, monetary contributions, and, most significantly, whether or not the strategic pursuits of every member state are aligned. By the identical token, nevertheless, its member states’ potential and capabilities are inflicting competitors for sources and partnerships.

Since Mongolia joined the SCO as an observer state in 2004, geopolitical dynamics and the overall outlook of worldwide relations have modified. Bilateral ties between SCO member states have modified dramatically – in some instances for the more serious. Since India joined the SCO in 2017, the China-India border problem has escalated, and India and Pakistan’s historic conflicts proceed.

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Furthermore, the world is watching Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territories, which is inflicting severe considerations amongst its fellow SCO member states. In the meantime, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan – two authentic SCO members – have been engaged in energetic battle alongside their disputed border on the time of the Samarkand summit.

And the SCO may turn into much more sophisticated sooner or later, with Iran set to formally achieve membership standing in 2023, whereas its rivals within the Center East – Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, and the UAE – are both at the moment or within the technique of changing into SCO dialogue companions, and doable future members.

These inner geopolitical conflicts absolutely don’t bestow confidence sooner or later actions of the group.

The dialogue on whether or not Mongolia ought to accede to SCO membership has been primarily dominated by analysts positioning Ulaanbaatar within the periphery of the Moscow-Beijing orbit. Nonetheless, these views diminish and undermine Mongolia’s unbiased international coverage.

Mongolia’s multi-pillared international coverage and non-nuclear weapons states standing (NNWS) are vital causes for Ulaanbaatar to abstain from becoming a member of sure organizations and safety alliances. Primarily based on the mix of those two international coverage mechanisms, Ulaanbaatar consciously chooses diplomacy and powerful bilateral relations versus relying on regional safety groupings – whether or not the U.S. alliance community or the SCO.

Furthermore, it isn’t in Ulaanbaatar’s curiosity to willfully bar itself from the liberty to pursue a multi-pillared international coverage as a democratic nation. This enables Ulaanbaatar to freely set up and strengthen bilateral relations with all events. For instance, Mongolia has strategic partnerships (some complete strategic partnerships) with Russia, China, Japan, India, and the US.

Within the eyes of Mongolian policymakers, diplomacy and bilateral relations should prevail over regional safety alliances, which carry extra danger because of the many political, financial, and safety elements which have the potential to create a rift if and when there’s a conflict of strategic pursuits.

In 2021, throughout International Minister of Mongolia Battsetseg Batmunkh’s official go to to Moscow, she gave an interview with Strana Industriya. Battsetseg acknowledged Mongolia’s place to stay as an observer state within the SCO.

On the sideline of the Samarkand summit, Mongolian President Khurelsukh Ukhnaa met with the secretary normal of the SCO, Zhang Ming. Throughout their dialog, Khurelsukh reiterated Ulaanbaatar’s place to keep up its observer standing, whereas noting that Mongolia will cooperate with commerce and financial actions.

Certainly, for Mongolia, the sideline conferences are arguably extra necessary than the SCO summit itself. Throughout the Samarkand summit, certainly one of many necessary conferences for Mongolia was the Russia-Mongolia-China heads of state trilateral summit. This 12 months’s assembly was headed by Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Mongolian president will lead the trilateral assembly in 2024.

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Throughout the Russia-Mongolia-China trilateral assembly, the pinnacle of states mentioned the financial hall and a gasoline pipeline mission at the moment underneath growth. In his comment, Khurelsukh acknowledged, “Russia and Mongolia have been cooperating within the feasibility examine of the gasoline pipeline mission that may undergo Mongolia. If applied, this mission can be the second main infrastructure that connects our three nations since 1955. And Mongolia is wholeheartedly hopeful to proceed the trilateral dialogue and make progress on this main growth.”

Mongolia’s observer standing within the SCO stays a scorching subject within the policymaking area. Nonetheless, given the present geopolitical atmosphere, the Mongolian authorities has determined to pursue its personal course of international coverage and strengthen bilateral relations – an instance of far-sighted policymaking.