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The White Home assembly produced a “highway map” for additional peace negotiations between the 2 nations, in line with Lilit Makunts, Armenia’s ambassador to Washington. The following step, she advised me, will probably be a gathering in early October in Geneva between the 2 nations’ overseas ministers, joined by Reeker and a European Union diplomat. The talks had been “proof of sturdy engagement with the U.S.,” Makunts stated.
Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought a sequence of bitter battles over the disputed area of Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan misplaced the territory in a 1994 battle, however it regained management of broad swaths after heavy preventing in 2020. Russia negotiated a cease-fire that November and subsequent peace talks. However Moscow has didn’t include the battle since then. Azerbaijan invaded Armenia this month, opening one other bloody spherical.
Russia’s failure to dealer peace within the Caucasus may be the clearest signal but of how the Ukraine battle has enfeebled Moscow’s energy to implement options alongside its borders. The Russian navy, badly stretched, hasn’t been in a position to play the peacekeeping function it promised between Armenia and Azerbaijan. And its diplomatic efforts at the moment are mistrusted by each side.
Moscow is having related issues in different spots round its periphery. Sweden and Finland have deserted neutrality and moved to affix NATO. Kazakhstan’s president has denounced the Ukraine battle as a “hopeless scenario” and opened his border to Russians fleeing President Vladimir Putin’s navy mobilization. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan welcomed visits by Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, the top of U.S. Central Command, this summer time regardless of Russian objections. The post-Soviet “empire” is visibly fraying on the seams.
Russia’s disarray seems to be pushing Armenia towards larger cooperation with the USA. The Armenians, surrounded by hostile neighbors, have lengthy regarded to Moscow for defense, regardless of their nation’s democratic, pro-Western political orientation. When Azerbaijan attacked this month, Armenia requested pressing assist from the Collective Safety Treaty Group, Moscow’s try to create a NATO-like regional alliance. However the CSTO did nothing.
Grigoryan, the secretary of the Armenian safety council, defined in an interview the aim of his go to to Washington this week: “I’m right here to debate how we will strengthen U.S.-Armenian relations.” Areas of potential cooperation included safety, power, diplomacy and financial relations, he stated. The muse of the connection can be “democracy strengthening democracy.”
Whether or not the increasing U.S.-Armenian relationship will lengthen to navy cooperation stays unclear. Armenia’s protection minister visited the Pentagon in September. Armenia wants higher coaching and tools for its navy, which was badly outmatched within the final battle with Azerbaijan. However there’s no seen signal of U.S. navy help.
A catalyst for improved U.S.-Armenian relations was the go to to Yerevan on Sept. 17 by Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi, which got here quickly after Azerbaijan’s assault. Grigoryan stated Pelosi’s journey checked additional escalation. “That go to provides hope that Armenia just isn’t alone in its wrestle,” he stated.
On the visceral query of Armenia’s relationship with Turkey, there are additionally small glimmers of change. Ankara continues to disclaim the 1915 Ottoman genocide, the darkest occasion in Armenian historical past. However Grigoryan stated dialogue of “normalization” with Ankara has begun, and the leaders of the 2 nations have agreed in precept to open their borders to transit, initially by third-country nationals.
“We anticipate it to occur as quickly as doable,” Grigoryan stated of this border opening. However as all the time in such diplomatic gambits, the satan is within the particulars.
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