Iran Crisis Update, September 30

September 30, 5:00 pm ET

The Iran Disaster Updates are produced by the Crucial Threats Venture (CTP) on the American Enterprise Institute with help from the Institute for the Research of Battle (ISW).

Anti-regime protests are persevering with in a minimum of 10 main cities in eight provinces and escalated violently in southeastern Sistan and Baluchistan Province on September 30. Protesters clashed with safety forces in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province, attacking native police stations and killing the provincial head of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) intelligence.[1] Social media customers advised that state safety providers deployed helicopters to abet their crackdown.[2] These clashes are among the many most violent within the ongoing protest wave up to now.

The safety state of affairs round Zahedan may worsen within the coming days and weeks, straining state safety providers greater than they already are. Anti-regime militancy is frequent round Zahedan, the place Salafi-jihadi teams corresponding to Jaish al Adl function. An Iranian Baluch militant group, Nameless Tigers of Baluchistan, reportedly launched a video on September 30 threatening to escalate additional in opposition to the regime in response to the clashes on September 30.[3] State safety providers have struggled with bandwidth constraints and exhaustion all through Iran throughout the ongoing, countrywide protests, and escalations round Zahedan will impose extra stress.

A senior Iranian navy official, Main Common Mohammad Bagheri, threatened to assault US forces in Iraq in retaliation for the US shootdown of an Iranian drone illegally working in Iraqi airspace close to an American navy base.[4] Bagheri additionally advised that Iran would assault US bases in Iraq for supporting anti-regime Kurdish teams. The IRGC has carried out six consecutive days of assaults on anti-regime Kurdish militants in Iraqi Kurdistan.[5] Bagheri accused the US of utilizing its Harir airbase in Erbil Province to coordinate with and help these teams in September 2021.[6] Iranian proxies in Iraq accused Omar Mahmoudzadeh, the American whom the IRGC killed in Iraqi Kurdistan on September 28, of coaching anti-regime Kurdish militants.[7]

Key Takeaways

• Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei stays absent and didn’t make a public look on September 30.
• The continuing, anti-regime protests occurred in a minimum of 10 cities in eight provinces and have been particularly violent in southeastern Sistan and Baluchistan Province on September 30.
• Iran’s most senior navy official threatened to assault US bases in Iraq.

Supreme Chief Succession

Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei stays absent and didn’t make a public look on September 30. Iranian state media reported that Khamenei issued an announcement expressing condolences over the demise of senior cleric Mohsen Labbani.[8] Unverifiable social media rumors circulated on September 29 claiming that Khamenei’s well being is worsening.[9]

President Ebrahim Raisi gave a speech in Tehran to commemorate the Nationwide Firefighting Day.[10] Raisi made no noteworthy remarks on supreme chief succession or the continuing anti-regime protests.

Anti-Regime Protests

The continuing, anti-regime protests occurred in a minimum of 10 Iranian cities in eight provinces and have been particularly violent in southeastern Sistan and Baluchistan Province on September 30. It is a moderate-to-high-confidence evaluation. Iranian social media customers documented unrest in:

• Karaj, Alborz Province
• Ardabil Metropolis, Ardabil Province
• Kerman Metropolis, Kerman Province
• Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province
• Dezful, Khuzestan Province
• Abadan, Khuzestan Province
• Ahvaz, Khuzestan Province
• Saghez, Kurdistan Province
• Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province
• Tehran, Tehran Province

Violent clashes between protestors and Iranian safety personnel erupted in Zahedan Metropolis, killing a senior provincial IRGC intelligence official.[11] Social media customers circulated footage purportedly of Iranian safety forces firing reside ammunition at protestors and flying helicopters round Zahedan.[12] CTP can’t confirm the authenticity of this footage or the social media claims that the helicopters included Cobra assault plane. A provincial official and Iranian media shops later corroborated experiences of unrest and claimed that unidentified assailants broken native safety infrastructure and killed a minimum of 19 Zahedan residents, considered one of whom was a senior provincial IRGC intelligence official.[13] An impartial cybersecurity watchdog group introduced extreme web disruptions within the neighborhood of Zahedan because the regime possible seeks to impede additional regional protest coordination and group.[14]

The regime experiences that it has arrested over a thousand Iranian civilians since protests started on September 16. Iranian state-affiliated media shops and officers have reported the arrest of over a thousand Iranians all through the nation in latest days, though the whole variety of arrests is probably going considerably increased.[15] Social media customers have circulated experiences of elevated arrests in latest days as effectively, though these numbers are tough to corroborate amidst ongoing web restrictions.[16] Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Safety publicized the arrest of 9 European nationals and dozens of purported opposition group members for his or her position in stoking nation-wide protests because the regime seeks guilty overseas actors for inside dissent.[17]

Iranian truckers have gone on strike, and their strikes may increase within the coming days. Iranian truckers have begun strikes to protest the regime crackdown.[18] Iranian trucker strikes have occurred in earlier protests, notably 2018, and sometimes unfold quickly. They pose a extra critical risk to the regime than different labor-related actions due to their common financial impact and their widespread nature.[19] Iranian oil trade employees warned on September 26 that they are going to strike if the regime doesn’t cease the crackdown.[20] Iranian rideshare drivers have acknowledged that they are going to start strikes on October 1.[21]

Unverified experiences of dissent inside the regime are circulating on-line.

• Persian-language media outlet Zeitoon revealed an announcement allegedly from college students and academics on the Tehran, Mashhad, and Qom seminaries on September 30, condemning Khamenei and the regime crackdown on the continuing, anti-regime protests.[22] CTP can’t confirm the authenticity of this report.
• A press release appeared on the IRGC-affiliated Fars Information Company web site allegedly from its workers on September 30, expressing help for the protests and condemning the regime.[23] The assertion claimed that the regime has arrested 23,000 folks and that 423 folks have died within the protests. The assertion additionally referred to as on the Artesh—Iran’s standard navy—to help the protests. Fars Information Company eliminated the assertion from its web site shortly after its publication. It’s unclear whether or not the assertion got here from its workers or hackers, though Fars Information didn’t declare that its website had been hacked.
• Anti-regime outlet IranWire reported that members of the Basij Group are refusing to attend conferences and are leaving their morality patrols, citing an unidentified former Iranian safety official.[24] The Basij Group is a paramilitary physique beneath the IRGC chargeable for civil protection and social management. The supply informed IranWire that Iranian authorities are involved about defections and dissent within the state safety providers. CTP can’t affirm this report.

Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments

Armed Forces Common Employees Chief Main Common Mohammad Bagheri, probably the most senior navy official in Iran, threatened to assault the US on September 30.[25] Bagheri threatened to retaliate for the US downing of an Iranian Mohajer-6 drone on September 28 and acknowledged that Iran will assault any US bases in Iraq that threaten the regime. Bagheri claimed that the US downing of the Iranian drone was proof that the US cooperates with anti-regime Kurdish teams in Iraqi Kurdistan. Bagheri in September 2021 accused the US of utilizing its Harir airbase in Erbil Province to coordinate with and help anti-regime militants in opposition to Iran.[26] The Armed Forces Common Employees, which Bagheri heads, is Iran’s highest navy physique and chargeable for navy coverage and strategic steerage. Bagheri is an IRGC common and a member of the community of senior IRGC officers that has been largely controlling the Guards for many years.

Iran’s Iraqi proxies are amplifying Tehran’s narrative blaming anti-regime Kurdish militias for the protests, however Iraqi political unrest might undermine the proxies’ messaging. Media channels intently tied to Iranian proxy militias Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) and Kataib Hezbollah (KH) emphasised anti-regime Kurdish militias’ alleged position within the Iranian protests in Telegram posts on September 29.[27] AAH and KH additionally downplayed the deaths of Kurdish civilians and US citizen Omar Mahmoudzadeh, additional alleging that Mahmoudzadeh was affiliated with the US navy and was coaching Kurdish militants.[28]

Iran’s Iraqi proxies are concurrently conducting a media marketing campaign in opposition to Iraqi nationalist Shia cleric Moqtada al Sadr’s Iraqi nationalist motion. The proxies intention to politically isolate Sadr’s followers, often known as Sadrists, and blame them for Iraq’s political gridlock and the armed clashes in Baghdad on September 28.[29] The proxies might prioritize the anti-Sadrist media marketing campaign and dilute their messaging that blames the US and anti-regime Kurdish militias for the protests.

Solidarity protests in opposition to the Iranian regime occurred in Afghanistan, Iraq, Iraqi Kurdistan, and Turkey on September 29-30.[30] Afghan girls protested in entrance of the Iranian embassy in Kabul on September 29.[31] Taliban safety forces fired reside ammunition into the air to disperse the gang. Demonstrators in Sulaymaniyah, Iraqi Kurdistan, held anti-regime solidarity protests and denounced the continued IRGC navy operation in Iraqi Kurdistan.[32] Turkish demonstrators protested close to the Iranian consulate in Istanbul on September 29.[33]

Upcoming Sadrist and anti-corruption demonstrations might converge with solidarity protests in opposition to the Iranian regime. Iraqi demonstrators additionally held solidarity protests in opposition to the Iranian regime and set fireplace to Iranian flags on September 29 in Najaf, dwelling to crucial Shia shrine.[34] The Sadrists search to enhance their bargaining place in Iraq’s ongoing authorities formation processes, and so they might try and unfold and tie anti-Iranian-regime sentiments to Iran’s Iraqi proxies. Anti-regime protests additionally might converge with upcoming demonstrations on the anniversary of Iraq’s October 2019 anti-corruption Tishreen motion. The motion coincided with comparable anti-Iranian regime protests in Lebanon in October 2019 and in Iran in November 2019.

View Citations