Kazakhstan—The Next Color Revolution? | Opinion

The struggle in Ukraine has centered the main target of the world on Japanese Europe. Now not do folks talk about democratization in Eurasia, and most of the people have forgotten in regards to the shade revolutions that had such a profound impact on the nations of the previous Soviet Union.

The current assembly of the Shanghai Cooperation Group once more confirmed the significance of the Central Asian states. Chief amongst these states is Kazakhstan. Each President Xi Jinping of China and President Vladimir Putin of Russia made some extent to satisfy with Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the president of Kazakhstan. Putin sought to have assist for the struggle in Ukraine, whereas Xi appeared to strengthen ties between China and Kazakhstan. Central Asian states have at all times discovered themselves in a tug-of-war between Russian and Chinese language pursuits, and it appears to be like as if they may play an much more essential position now.

Kazakhstan is dealing with a home political disaster as Nursultan Nazarbayev left workplace in 2019 after serving as president for over 27 years. Kazakhstan was extra secure than its neighbors, however it has been sliding towards authoritarianism for over twenty years. As an oil exporter, Kazakhstan suffers from long-term financial inequalities which is maintained by corruption. The political opposition is topic to intimidation and violence. As a comparatively new chief, Tokayev has confronted rising home discontent that has led to huge demonstrations that required Russia to intervene to protect the federal government.

Putin’s help in serving to to place down democratic opposition to Tokayev in January 2022 had a worth: Russia secured and deepened its oil commerce with Beijing by displacing Kazakhstani exports and changing them with Russian oil. Tokayev sacrificed the financial welfare of his folks to consolidate his management and his management relies on Russian assist.

Kazakhstan is the ninth largest nation globally and is geopolitically essential to each Beijing and Moscow. Putin claims that Kazakhstan is in Russia’s “sphere of affect” and but Tokayev has quietly supported Ukraine and has refused to acknowledge the Moscow managed states of Donetsk and Luhansk. China controls 1 / 4 of Kazakhstan’s oil and is increasing its possession of enterprises. Many locals hint their heritage to Genghis Khan and Mongolia which complicates its nationwide identification.

In a rustic that suffers from systematic inequality, Putin and Xi are pursuing insurance policies that make a shade revolution extra probably. Kazakhstan’s financial insurance policies exacerbate wealth inequality, whereas growing authoritarian management over the populace. Russian and Chinese language insurance policies serve to deprive Kazakhstan of inner wealth and exacerbate inner home issues. Whereas Beijing and Moscow see Kazakhstan as a strategically essential associate, the insurance policies they put forth are more likely to generate home instability.

The corruption and systematic inequality are presumably larger at the moment than when the uprisings occurred earlier this yr. The one main change is that Moscow is now occupied by struggle in Ukraine and is unlikely to have the ability to supply the identical assist that it did in January.

Whereas Kazakhstan has voiced its issues associated to the struggle in Ukraine, it additionally realizes that it can’t alienate Moscow for worry of shedding its assist for the present regime. Additional, Astana is worried with the expansion of China and the rising alliance between Moscow and Beijing. Astana has tried to play Moscow and Beijing off each other, however with elevated cooperation between China and Russia to problem america’ energy, it’s more and more tough for Astana to steadiness Chinese language and Russian affect in opposition to one another in Kazakhstan.

It’s probably that the home unrest will boil over and result in huge instability and a shade revolution in Kazakhstan. This shall be utilized by the West to open up one other entrance within the growing battle with Russia in Ukraine. Though it is extremely tough to foretell the timing when such an rebellion might happen, Kazakhstan is a powerful candidate for a shade revolution.

Michael O. Slobodchikoff is the founding director of the Heart for Japanese and Central European, Russian, and Eurasian Research at Troy College. He’s additionally professor and chair of the political science division. He has written a number of books on Russian relations with the previous Soviet Union.

G. Doug Davis is affiliate professor of political science and the director of the grasp’s in worldwide relations program at Troy College. He’s the writer of two books on Japanese Europe and Eurasia.

The views expressed on this article are the writers’ personal.