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ANKARA: A proposal by Russian President Vladimir Putin to determine Turkey as a gasoline hub to European markets has stirred intense debate on the feasibility of the plan.
The proposal appears to place the TurkStream pipeline as a substitute for Europe’s Nord Stream by exporting extra gasoline via the Black Sea to Turkey.
On Friday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who not too long ago met Putin on the sidelines of a regional summit in Kazakhstan, stated that Russian and Turkish vitality authorities have already been instructed to right away start technical work on the proposal.
“There shall be no ready,” he stated.
The gasoline distribution heart is anticipated to be constructed in Turkey’s Thrace area, bordering Bulgaria and Greece.
NATO member Turkey, which didn’t be part of Western sanctions in opposition to Russia over the invasion of Ukraine, nonetheless closely is determined by Moscow for its vitality wants.
The mission could assist Europe in overcoming mounting vitality challenges earlier than winter, however there are nonetheless a number of particulars to resolve when it comes to feasibility.
Moscow already reduce off Nord Stream 1 deliveries over technical issues, whereas Germany rejected a Russian proposal to extend gasoline circulate to Europe via the Nord Stream 2 pipeline within the Baltic Sea.
Nonetheless, Aydin Sezer, an Ankara-based knowledgeable on vitality and Turkey-Russia relations, stated that Moscow’s supply to Ankara needs to be approached cautiously.
“On the one hand, there’s a query of demand in a interval when Europe tries to wean itself off Russian gasoline regardless of imminent winter circumstances,” he instructed Arab Information.
“Additionally, Turkey has lengthy sought to turn out to be an vitality hub, however earlier initiatives all the time positioned it as a hall nation. It’s nonetheless unclear whether or not this proposal will once more make Turkey a rustic the place Russian gasoline will solely transit via,” he stated.
In keeping with Sezer, to turn out to be an vitality hub, Ankara needs to be supplied with the means to set a reference value for gasoline and have the ability to obtain gasoline from completely different sources, together with Russia, Azerbaijan, Iraq and Turkmenistan, amongst different nations.
“If the gasoline flows solely from one supply, comparable to Russia, the value shall be once more set by the supplier nation, fairly than Turkey. Being a hub means with the ability to set costs and collect various sources of vitality in a pool,” he stated.
The development value of such a mission may additionally show too pricey.
Corrosion-resistant metal pipes utilized in such initiatives are primarily produced in Germany and China, stated Sezer.
The Saipem-owned pipelay vessels “are dispatched by Italy. And all these operations are regulated as a part of the EU sanctions on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine in February,” stated the knowledgeable.
Sezer recommended that Russia would possibly take into account giving Turkey a re-export license.
It will permit Turkey to conduct vitality commerce with Europe instantly, which means the gasoline circulate originating from Russia wouldn’t be topic to Western sanctions.
In keeping with Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish program on the Washington Institute, the proposal matches into the better image of rising Turkish-Russian ties within the background of the Ukraine conflict.
“Particularly, Turkey was pro-Ukraine however not anti-Russia. It supported Ukraine militarily, but it surely additionally maintained its deep financial ties with Russia as a result of it wanted the injection of Russian money into its financial system, tourism and direct investments, together with oligarch cash,” he instructed Arab Information.
In July, Russian state-owned firm Rosatom additionally transferred billions of {dollars} to its subsidiary, the Turkish Akkuyu nuclear plant, to cowl procurement wants.
“Power is a part of that mutually helpful relationship. For Putin, Turkey’s place is just not ultimate,” Cagaptay stated.
“It will be important that Turkey supplies Russia an outlet to Europe and to the worldwide financial system. The vitality hub proposal will due to this fact give Putin an exit path, whereas for Erdogan it’s economically and politically fairly helpful as he’ll inform Turkish residents that the nation is in such an excellent place in getting gasoline when individuals in Europe are freezing in wintertime,” Cagaptay stated.
Whether or not such a gasoline hub mission would set off a wave of sanctions towards Turkey is unclear.
However Cagaptay warned that the US authorities would probably use its business-to-business ties to influence Turkish corporations to keep away from partaking in offers with Russia.
The US Treasury despatched a letter to Turkish banks and companies in August warning that they may not entry the US greenback in the event that they traded with Russia below the sanction regime. Turkish state banks that had accepted the Russian Mir cost system for bank cards have additionally been criticized by the US.
Madalina Sisu Vicari, a Brussels-based unbiased geopolitical analyst, stated that Putin’s proposal for the gasoline hub has two objectives: To extend geoeconomic interdependency between Russia and Turkey, and to protect some a part of the European marketplace for Russian gasoline.
“Russia’s gasoline exports to its major market, Europe, have dramatically fallen because the starting of the conflict, and they’re nonetheless set to lower,” she instructed Arab Information.
“Furthermore, the contract between Russia and Ukraine for the transit of the gasoline ends in 2024,” Sisu Vicari added.
“Nonetheless, with the 2 sides already at loggerheads over funds and arbitrations, and, extra importantly, with a brand new geopolitical actuality triggered by the conflict, it appears not possible to see a brand new gasoline deal between Russia and Ukraine after 2024,” stated Sisu Vicari.
Due to this fact, Moscow can have large volumes of gasoline with out an export market vacation spot, she added.
Throughout his current assembly with Erdogan, Putin stated: “If Turkey and potential patrons in different nations have an interest, Russia can take into account constructing one other gasoline pipeline and establishing a gasoline hub in Turkey for commerce with third nations, to begin with European nations, in fact, however provided that they’re .”
Sisu Vicari stated that the viability of the mission “is determined by EU nations’ willingness to proceed to purchase Russian gasoline over subsequent yr, and to purchase it through Turkey.”
She added: “Such a choice shall be principally formed by the interaction of geopolitical components, specifically the end result of the conflict in Ukraine, the relations between the West and Russia after the conflict, and likewise the relations between Turkey and the EU.”
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