‘We want respect’: Putin’s authority tested in Central Asia

STRAINED DIPLOMACY

With Putin dealing with deepening issues in Ukraine, his capacity to implement Moscow’s conventional function as a policeman in different post-Soviet conflicts is being examined as by no means earlier than.

Throughout his journey, he held a separate three-way assembly with Rakhmon and Kyrgyzstan’s President Sadyr Japarov to debate a border dispute which just about led to all-out conflict between their two nations in September.

The assembly, which started with Rakhmon and Japarov refusing to shake palms, produced no breakthrough, though Putin promised them to search out Soviet maps which can make clear the place the border was meant to be.

The battle prompted Japarov to skip a casual assembly of ex-Soviet leaders in Moscow on Putin’s birthday, Oct 7. Kyrgyzstan additionally postpone deliberate army drills of the Russia-led CSTO army bloc on its territory and refused to take part in an analogous train in Tajikistan.

Observers famous that the host of the summit, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, had no bilateral assembly with Putin whereas the latter was in Astana, regardless of assembly Turkish, Qatari, Azeri and different leaders one-on-one.

Tokayev additionally complained of private assaults on nationwide leaders that “poison the ambiance of cooperation” within the post-Soviet house, a probable reference to frequent criticism of the Kazakh management within the Russian media. Kazakh state tv confirmed a choice of avenue interviews during which respondents mentioned the conflict in Ukraine solid doubt on whether or not any post-Soviet unity nonetheless existed.

Its report additionally highlighted what it referred to as provocative behaviour by Belarusian chief Alexander Lukashenko, broadly thought to be Putin’s proxy, who interrupted one in all Tokayev’s speeches. It confirmed Tokayev replying with a condescending smile.

Nonetheless, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the most important nations in Central Asia, are cautious to not antagonise Moscow as a result of they nonetheless see Russia as a regional policeman whose assist they could want in a disaster, mentioned Alisher Ilkhamov, a Central Asia advisor primarily based in Britain.

In the long run, nevertheless, he mentioned China’s affect as regional “older brother” was set to rise on the expense of Russia’s if the conflict continued to go badly for Putin:

“For the second we see Russia is ceding to China this function as main patron for the Central Asian states. The vacuum is not going to be unfilled – it is going to be crammed step-by-step by China.”