The Potential for a U.S.-Uzbekistan Partnership

Uzbekistan, double-landlocked within the coronary heart of Eurasia, is located in the midst of waves of geopolitical turmoil. Whereas the nation has made strides since 2016 below its present president, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, towards a extra open type of governance and proactive international coverage, it is also concurrently grappling with Russia’s reshaping of the safety dynamic within the former Soviet Union, the brand new Taliban regime in Afghanistan, and the rising ambitions of China. This dynamic has intensified Uzbekistan’s crucial to develop a broad vary of partnerships. 

This presents america with alternatives to develop its affect in Eurasia, in addition to questions over the best way to have interaction with what stays, regardless of Mirziyoyev’s reforms, a repressive political regime that demonstrates no signal of transformation right into a liberal democracy anytime quickly. Tashkent’s dealing with of current unrest in Karakalpakstan specifically demonstrates the depth of modifications to Uzbekistan since Mirziyoyev’s ascent, whereas cautioning that the nation’s regime stays authoritarian. Whereas not overstating U.S. pursuits in Central Asia, Washington broadly needs to see the area achieve better negotiating energy vis-à-vis China, Iran, and Russia by the use of extra autonomy in financial and navy affairs; democratize; and collaborate with transatlantic establishments on safety and commerce. 

Diplomacy and Safety in Central Asia 

Afghanistan stays the highest precedence for U.S.-Uzbekistan relations. The instability that arose from the August 2021 collapse of the U.S.-backed regime and rise of the Taliban has provoked renewed fears of transnational drug smuggling and terrorism. Whereas the Taliban promised america and the worldwide neighborhood at massive that it could preserve al Qaeda, ISIS, and different jihadist teams out of Afghanistan, this was by no means a promise the Taliban may realistically fulfill even when it desired to hold by means of. That america killed al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri in a compound linked to influential Taliban chief Sirajuddin Haqqani speaks to how the Taliban regime stays deeply entangled in worldwide Islamist extremism. What’s extra, the looming prospect of factional rivalries inside the Taliban additional proliferating violence bodes poorly for Taliban authorities’ means to maintain a lid on jihadist teams each contained in the nation and within the area. 

Uzbekistan is on the entrance strains of this safety disaster, as evidenced by a July rocket assault, believed to have been perpetrated by ISIS, that broken properties within the southern metropolis of Termez and has renewed fears about violent spillover from Afghanistan in Central Asia. Even so, Tashkent has adopted a practical, engaged diplomatic strategy towards the Taliban and has urged authorities in Kabul to crack down on jihadist teams within the nation. Past safety, Tashkent’s determination to cooperate with the Taliban displays its want to keep away from the interruption of infrastructure tasks and international direct funding that many fear could outcome from the instability emanating from Afghanistan and to stop a broader spillover of safety threats into the nation. 

In consequence, Uzbekistan has taken a management function in organizing diplomacy round Afghanistan. As Western curiosity in Afghanistan wanes relative to Russia’s battle in Ukraine, Uzbekistan has proactively engaged different states to stabilize its southern neighbor – although the Taliban’s unreliability and lack of credibility could jeopardize any longer-term imaginative and prescient for peace and cooperation. Uzbekistan stays eager about Afghanistan as a transport hall with the potential for financial linkages to the Arabian Sea area and past. Tashkent will do all it will probably to see a steady, cooperative political regime emerge in Kabul to protect its personal safety and attractiveness as an rising market vacation spot for international direct funding. 

This similar impulse has led Uzbekistan to extend its regional presence, mending fences with its different neighbors. Turkmenistan’s new president, Serdar Berdymukhamedov, just lately paid a go to to Tashkent, giving Uzbekistan an opportunity to forge nearer ties with its closed neighbor, and at a regional summit in Kyrgyzstan in July, Mirziyoyev highlighted the financial alternatives of nearer cooperation between Central Asian states. These ties give Uzbekistan an opportunity to construct on this rhetoric of cooperation and play a number one function in pushing regional integration and codecs that empower Central Asian states and probably give them better leverage as a bloc of their relationships with China and Russia. Additionally they create a stronger toolkit of relationships to cope with regional crises which may straight implicate Uzbekistan’s personal stability. Relations with Tajikistan, as soon as poisoned by deep mutual suspicion and intrigue, have improved dramatically, with Mirziyoyev forging a relationship with Tajik President Emomalî Rahmon and his son and inheritor obvious, Rustam Emomalî. Tajikistan’s historical past of civil battle and vulnerability to destabilization from Afghanistan, coupled with shared pursuits in managing financial cooperation and water utilization between the international locations, led to Uzbekistan’s crucial to ascertain higher ties. 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has additional examined Uzbekistan’s delicate international coverage steadiness. International Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov criticized the invasion and reiterated Uzbekistan’s help for Ukraine’s territorial integrity in April, however his resignation a month later – ostensibly for well being causes – may counsel his boldness ran forward of Tashkent’s official place. Whereas many parts of Uzbek society stay sympathetic to Ukraine, the dominance of Russian language-media within the nation has led to a better familiarity with Russian narratives on the battle over these of its Ukrainian victims. Mirziyoyev’s authorities has additionally taken steps to remain near Moscow; he just lately hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin in Samarkand for the Shanghai Cooperation Group summit and shuttled to Moscow for a casual summit of the Commonwealth of Unbiased States on Putin’s birthday. Like its Central Asian friends, Uzbekistan probably will keep away from agency positions on Ukraine as a lot as doable.  

Uzbekistan’s Strengths and Challenges 

Uzbekistan’s inhabitants is younger and rising, which poses each challenges and alternatives. Incidents of unrest foster continued danger of home upheaval. Within the Fergana Valley, restricted sources coupled with a fancy mixture of ethnic Kazakh, Kyrgyz, Tajik, and Uzbek populations have traditionally stoked battle, most just lately in 2010, when instability from a revolution in Kyrgyzstan spilled over into violence between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have engaged in battle over water rights close to the place the 2 share a border with Uzbekistan. In Karakalpakstan, some parts of the Karakalpak inhabitants engaged in unrest in July to protest constitutional modifications that might have eradicated their proper to secede from the nation, reviving fears in nationalist social media circles that ethnic Kazakhs or Kazakhstan-based Karakalpak opposition would assist Karakalpak demonstrators. 

Whereas Uzbekistani authorities beforehand had violently suppressed unrest and expelled U.S. navy and NGOs following Washington’s criticism, its response to the disaster in Karakalpakstan suggests an evolution in Uzbekistan’s place. Tashkent has boosted its lobbying efforts to safe its pursuits in Washington and has convened a parliamentary fee to analyze the causes for unrest. For all this course of’ clear defects, it demonstrates that the regime understands it can’t afford to inflict violence with the impunity it beforehand loved if it wishes better cooperation with transatlantic companions. This additionally could replicate a shift in Uzbekistani authorities’ technique in how and to what diploma they search to clarify violence to their inhabitants. This comparatively better responsiveness to public and worldwide scrutiny demonstrates the Uzbekistani state’s concern for its picture at dwelling and overseas and the genuineness of its want for higher relations with the U.S. and others. 

The nation’s financial system has posted sturdy progress over the previous decade, with annualized GDP progress within the mid to excessive single digits. Nevertheless, home elements additionally create dangers for Uzbekistan’s stability. Whereas significant progress has been made, Uzbekistan stays a deeply authoritarian state. The nation’s human rights file, as soon as notorious for the alleged boiling and freezing of opponents of the regime, has gone from abysmal to poor. Reporting continues to implicate high officers in transnational corruption. 

Uzbekistan is strengthening partnerships in each vector of its international relations. Along with strikes to deepen its relationship with america, reminiscent of agreeing to ship Uzbekistani troopers to affix joint regional workouts organized by the U.S. in Tajikistan in August, it has additionally moved forward with the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway challenge. The route marks a brand new stage in makes an attempt to develop a center hall that might permit commerce to cross Eurasia between the territories of Iran and Russia, which have diminished of their attractiveness as transit international locations given the consequences of the U.S. sanctions regime. This challenge is a part of a broader prioritization of regional connectivity. 

Uzbekistan has been a pacesetter within the trilateral format between India, Iran, and itself to make use of Chabahar port for the export of Uzbekistani items, and it seems to be more likely to improve its relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Whereas Uzbekistan held joint navy workouts with Turkey in recent times, the cooperation was restricted. Following Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s go to to the nation in June, a trilateral Azerbaijan-Turkey-Uzbekistan summit in Tashkent on Aug. 3 produced a declaration to increase cooperation. Earlier than visiting Samarkand for a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Group in September, Chinese language chief Xi Jinping delivered a speech highlighting Uzbekistan’s significance to China. As Russian affect wanes in Central Asia, Uzbekistan has made it clear that it intends to pursue an “all the above” strategy to growing new strategic partnerships. 

Suggestions 

Whereas Tashkent’s lively function each in organizing and taking part in declarations and summits marks a shift towards a brand new worldwide function, so too does the disaster in Karakalpakstan bode combined tidings for Uzbekistan’s safety. Uzbekistan’s regime is engaged and able to work with companions to boost their nation’s place as a key node in commerce throughout the rising Center Hall. The US ought to proceed to prioritize sturdy engagement with Uzbekistan as a pillar of its diplomacy in Central Asia and put extra emphasis on  applications by means of the American Uzbekistan Chamber of Commerce to deliver U.S. companies and funding to the nation. It additionally ought to promote better safety cooperation to help Uzbekistan in responding to the brand new uncertainties on its Afghan border. 

The US should transfer past dialogue to extra concrete and actionable commitments of help. Recognizing Uzbekistan’s place as a dealer with the Taliban regime in Kabul, the U.S. ought to discover synergies with Tashkent to alleviate Afghanistan’s humanitarian disaster and construct leverage on the Taliban. Lastly, Washington ought to encourage Tashkent to take a number one function in institutionalizing Central Asian regional political and financial integration, one thing leaders hinted at in July’s Cholpon Ata summit in Kyrgyzstan. Concurrently, Washington ought to proceed its help for human rights teams and elections monitoring to push the regime towards extra real and deeper liberalization. 

Uzbekistani society has modified, however the dangers of renewed instability stay. The U.S. ought to seize the chance to kind a extra significant bilateral relationship with a promising if troubled accomplice. 

Sam Harshbarger is a analysis intern with the New Traces Institute’s Energy Vacuums Program. He’s a junior at Princeton College finding out historical past with a give attention to trendy Russia, Turkey, and Eurasia. He’s a analysis assistant on the International Coverage Analysis Institute and an IPF Atid Coverage Fellow at Israel Coverage Discussion board. He beforehand interned with Evergreen Technique Group, the Georgian Basis for Strategic and Worldwide Research (Rondeli Basis), and the Syrian Emergency Job Pressure.  

The views expressed on this article are these of the writer and never an official coverage or place of the New Traces Institute.