Netanyahu comeback is Jordan’s worst nightmare

Netanyahu comeback is Jordan’s worst nightmare

The 28-year-old peace between Jordan and Israel has been something however regular. The 2 international locations share a checkered historical past, having fought three wars since 1948 earlier than lastly signing a peace treaty in 1994; one that almost all of Jordanians nonetheless reject. However all through the “frigid” peace between the 2 neighboring international locations, at the least on the public degree, one man stood behind a sequence of diplomatic crises that erupted between the 2 over the previous two and a half many years: Benjamin Netanyahu.

Lower than a 12 months into his first time period as Israeli prime minister, Netanyahu sanctioned what turned out to be a botched try on the lifetime of Khalid Mishal, the pinnacle of Hamas’ political bureau, within the coronary heart of Amman in 1997. King Hussein threatened to droop the peace treaty with Israel except Netanyahu equipped the antidote for the poison Mossad brokers had injected Mishal with. He relented and Mishal survived. However that incident tainted ties between Netanyahu and King Hussein.

The younger King Abdullah, who took over after Hussein’s dying in 1999, shared his father’s suspicions of Netanyahu and the 2 males sparred quite a few instances over time till the Israeli chief’s fall from grace in June 2021, having change into the longest-serving premier within the historical past of the state. Whether or not over Jordan’s custody of the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound and the following incursions onto the holy website by Jewish extremists; the establishing of digital gates on the entrances to the mosque’s advanced; the confiscation of homes within the East Jerusalem neighborhood of Sheikh Jarrah; the killing of two Jordanians by an Israeli guard on the Israeli embassy compound in Amman; obstructing an unprecedented go to by Jordan’s crown prince to Al-Haram Al-Sharif; or the menace to annex the Jordan Valley, Netanyahu turned the king’s gadfly, casting a darkish shadow over bilateral ties.

So, when a motley coalition of centrist, right-wing and Arab events took over in Israel final 12 months, Jordan was relieved. Not that Naftali Bennett was a average or had supported the two-state resolution — he didn’t. However as a result of anybody was a more sensible choice than Netanyahu, who Jordanians consider has a grudge towards Jordan and the king personally. Bennett and caretaker Prime Minister Yair Lapid have been fast to go to Amman and restore a semblance of normality to bilateral relations. King Abdullah invited Israeli President Isaac Herzog for an official state go to to Jordan in the summertime.

Though Netanyahu’s successors continued to permit Jewish extremists to breach Al-Aqsa, the pondering in Amman was that neither Bennett nor Lapid would go so far as to formally finish Jordan’s position over the Muslim website. Each males needed to appease the far proper, which was gaining drive with each election cycle. Amman didn’t prefer it, nevertheless it understood the fragile scenario the 2 beleaguered leaders discovered themselves in. Nobody wished Netanyahu to return.

After which, after 4 inconclusive Knesset elections since 2019, final week Israel witnessed a political earthquake. Netanyahu, who’s beneath trial on graft fees, was in a position to hammer collectively a deadly alliance of far-right and religious-right events to hitch his Likud group in contesting and successful a fifth election. This time round, he beat all polls and emerged because the winner with 64 seats, out of 120, to his identify — a cushty majority that may allow him to type the following authorities.

With two firebrand far-right ultranationalist politicians — Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich — backing him, Netanyahu is slated to rule over essentially the most excessive authorities within the historical past of Israel. Labeled as fascists and racists by the Israeli media, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich are believed to be the true winners of the election, having been on the fringes of Israeli politics for years.

Having to take care of Netanyahu is one factor, however confronting two overtly belligerent politicians whose place on Al-Aqsa, which Israel calls Temple Mount, doesn’t exclude taking on the location and even leveling the Muslim shrine, is one other. The brand new far-right authorities’s insurance policies may even problem Jordan on different points, akin to East Jerusalem’s Palestinian neighborhoods, the UN Reduction and Works Company, West Financial institution annexation, and even the mass switch of Palestinians.

Not like different Arab international locations which have signed peace treaties with Israel, Jordan has a novel relationship with West Financial institution Palestinians, to not point out that it’s dwelling to greater than 2 million Palestinian refugees.

His legacy, as he searches for one, might be to finish Jordan’s position at Al-Aqsa and permit for the bodily division of the holy website.

Osama Al-Sharif

Even when Netanyahu decides to dump his fanatical allies for a extra centrist coalition with the intention to achieve worldwide acceptance, which is very unlikely, his comeback on the helm is sufficient to hold Jordan guessing. His legacy, as he searches for one, might be to finish Jordan’s position at Al-Aqsa and permit for the bodily division of the holy website. His transfer to annex the Jordan Valley, thus isolating the West Financial institution bodily from Jordan, can be not far-fetched.

Jordan has not commented publicly on Netanyahu’s victory and might be ready to see what sort of authorities he places collectively. Mockingly, a far-right one might find yourself serving Jordan greater than an alliance with the middle proper. A authorities with overtly racist ministers will set off worldwide outrage and may even put strain on signatories to the Abraham Accords. In all instances, apart from the Palestinians, Jordan is making ready for the worst as Netanyahu, a long-time nemesis, prepares for a triumphant return. Its choices in coping with him are restricted.

• Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator primarily based in Amman. Twitter: @plato010

Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers on this part are their very own and don’t essentially mirror Arab Information’ perspective