What to Expect from Tokayev’s Second Term – The Diplomat

This month, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is sort of sure to be re-elected for a second time period in workplace. The snap presidential election on November 20 will see him stand towards a parade of largely unknown candidates – none of them a supply of real opposition. When elected, he’ll have the ability to serve a seven-year time period, as much as 2029.

The election happens after a momentous yr in Kazakhstan. In early January, Tokayev’s presidency confronted an existential risk from a harmful mixture of mass protests and an tried coup by members of the family and associates of his predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan’s first president.

Tokayev was in a position to overcome each threats, not least due to a powerful present of assist from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who despatched a contingent of troops to Almaty to strengthen the resolve of the Kazakh safety forces beneath the aegis of the Collective Safety Treaty Group (CSTO).

Since then, Tokayev has sought to consolidate his place. He has dismissed Nazarbayev loyalists, eliminated protections for the Nazarbayev household from the structure, and outlined a program of political and financial reform. All that continues to be is for him to be re-elected – his first election with out the overbearing presence of Nazarbayev.

For Tokayev, that is the optimum time to go to the polls. Having eliminated the Nazarbayev household from prominence and having set out a program of widespread reforms, he’s maybe on the apex of his reputation. As famous, no widespread opposition exists – and elites which will oppose him stay scattered and cowed by the momentous change in Kazakhstan’s energy stability that January wrought. 

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The choice to go to the polls early additionally displays the large challenges that Kazakhstan faces, challenges that may very well be extremely destabilizing for the Tokayev administration. Internally, the inhabitants is experiencing a grinding value of dwelling disaster that has been exacerbated by the battle in Ukraine. The federal government stays on excessive alert for additional unrest as dwelling requirements proceed to fall. 

New Authorities, Identical Political Economic system

Upon re-election, it is rather possible that Tokayev will appoint a brand new authorities – together with a brand new prime minister – consisting of youthful, reform-minded technocrats. Allies which have remained near the president inside the presidential administration are additionally prone to take entrance line positions. 

Freed from the constraints of the Nazarbayev household, Tokayev may even have the ability to pursue a political program of his personal making. Whereas he has introduced himself as a reformer, the mannequin that he seems to have chosen for his personal presidency is that of authoritarian modernization, just like the regimes of Singapore or China previous to the rise of President Xi Jinping. It’s maybe not a coincidence that Tokayev’s two postings as a Soviet diplomat had been in Lee Kuan Yew’s Singapore and Deng Xiaoping’s China.

For that reason, Tokayev’s political reforms haven’t – and usually are not prone to – foster the rise of political options to the president and his Amanat social gathering (the rebranded Nur-Otan). Kazakhstan’s legislation enforcement businesses and safety providers additionally stay too hostile for different political actions to emerge. 

As a substitute, Tokayev’s reforms have been centered on bettering the efficiency of the financial system and rising the effectivity of the general public administration. Discuss of better accountability is subsequently designed to make the sclerotic civil service extra attentive to the calls for of the inhabitants – though with out permitting the direct election of key positions, resembling regional governors. There may even be a heavy give attention to professionalization of the civil service, digitalization, and the introduction of worldwide requirements, notably for the governance of state-owned enterprises. 

On financial issues, Tokayev has introduced a wise prognosis of the challenges going through Kazakhstan. These embody the overbearing presence of the state within the financial system, value regulation, monopolies, low productiveness, an absence of capital market improvement, and corruption – all of which have contributed to the creation of a excessive inflation, low productiveness, and low wage financial system.

Nevertheless, Tokayev will face some tough selections on financial reform. Delivering market-oriented reforms would require inflicting financial ache on the inhabitants within the brief time period in alternate for a promise of future development.

Each reform has its prices. Value liberalization will encourage extra funding however enhance the price of utilities and staple items. Privatization will make the financial system extra dynamic however end in layoffs. Curbing fiscal stimulus will decrease inflation however cut back a lot wanted assist for the poorest households.

The poor socioeconomic situations additionally imply that the state is unlikely to supply concessions to main traders, together with these in capital-intensive industries resembling mining and oil and gasoline. Already, the federal government has elevated the Mineral Extraction Tax, a levy on mining exercise. It additionally continues to squeeze extra income from traders by the tax system and advert hoc inspections. 

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A extra pernicious barrier to financial reform is the position of corruption and rent-seeking in Kazakhstan’s political financial system. Whereas the president has pledged to “de-oligarchize” the Kazakh financial system, it will require daring motion to confront some very highly effective financial pursuits within the financial system. Up to now, there was little proof of such motion.

De-oligarchization may even require the president to forgo the temptation to reward his personal allies with the income producing alternatives loved by the allies of his predecessor. There are rising indicators, nonetheless, that Tokayev’s allies are gaining management of belongings all through the financial system. 

Given these challenges, there’s a sturdy probability that Tokayev will attempt to introduce parts of market reform whereas sustaining the general structure of the state-led improvement mannequin of the Nazarbayev period.

This might not be the primary time such an experiment has been tried. Nevertheless, this experiment has at all times ended with the state taking again management over the political system financial system at instances of disaster. This was most just lately seen within the aftermath of the 2008-09 International Monetary Disaster, when Nazarbayev topped himself as “Elbasy” (chief of the nation) and cracked down on all remaining types of political dissent.

Geopolitical Issues Will Dominate

An ongoing concern for the president is navigating Kazakhstan’s unenviable geopolitical place. Because the outbreak of the battle in Ukraine, Kazakhstan has navigated a really slim tightrope between Russia and the West. Astana continues to explain Moscow as a strategic companion however has not acknowledged its territorial claims in Ukraine and has revered the Western sanctions regime. 

Whereas this place is in keeping with Kazakhstan’s stance on Ukraine since 2014, the context has modified dramatically. The Kremlin, viewing the present battle as an existential battle with the West, has considered Kazakhstan’s neutrality as a betrayal and made veiled threats towards Astana – most notably through a July courtroom order, subsequently rescinded, to close down the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, the first route for Kazakhstan’s oil exports. 

In response to the battle, Tokayev has additionally revived Kazakhstan’s multi-vector international coverage by deepening ties with Western nations, Turkey, the Gulf, and China. In September, China’s Xi visited Astana  – his first international go to because the outbreak of COVID-19 – to warn Russia to not destabilize Kazakhstan.

Nevertheless, China’s opposition to a possible Russian intervention in Kazakhstan doesn’t imply that China and Russia don’t share pursuits within the area. Quite, they’re united of their want to maintain Western powers – notably the US – out of Central Asia. 

Beijing, particularly, is prone to view Tokayev’s commitments to ship political and financial reform as closely opposite to its personal ideology. It might additionally interpret Western political assist for Tokayev’s reforms as a type of political interference within the area.

Tokayev is maybe Kazakhstan’s most skilled politician. Nevertheless, having spent most of his profession within the shadow of Nazarbayev, it stays to be seen what sort of chief he’ll show to be and the way he’ll select to answer all these challenges.

Within the years spent as Nazarbayev’s chosen successor, Tokayev proved cautious and demonstrated an incredible skill to outlive towards the chances. For that reason, the mix of geopolitical and home pressures are prone to stop Tokayev from delivering on important political or financial reform. Tokayev’s second time period will possible solely see incremental adjustments to Kazakhstan’s political financial system.