How a former al-Qaeda affiliate became an existential threat and a wake-up call for the Syrian opposition

On October 11, infighting between Turkey-backed armed forces in northern Syria opened the gateway for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate and designated terror group, to enter Afrin metropolis and briefly occupy northern Aleppo province. With this transfer, HTS confirmed pressure for the second time in 4 months. In distinction to Idlib province, the place HTS dominates the bottom, Afrin was thought of to be beneath the management of the Syrian Nationwide Military (SNA) after the Turkish-Syrian navy operation in 2018, main Turkey to proclaim Afrin a secure zone. The entry and compelled withdrawal—on account of a Turkish ultimatum—shook native dynamics and should in the end function a wake-up name for the Syrian opposition.

Since 2018, the area of Afrin in northern Aleppo has seen vital change; the predominantly Kurdish area was not managed by the Folks’s Safety Items (YPG)—the Syrian department of the Turkish Kurdistan Employees’ Occasion (PKK)—however the SNA and Turkish Armed Forces. With this, a brand new governance mannequin was applied within the area, the place native councils ruled over native affairs, together with infrastructure and inside safety. Whereas all native councils are nominally our bodies of the Syrian Interim Authorities (SIG), the adjoining Turkish governate of Hatay performed a major position in an official advisory capability.

Nonetheless, essentially the most vital change got here when it comes to demographics. Whereas an enormous portion of the initially displaced Syrian Kurds returned to Afrin, the demographics of Afrin have began to change by means of completely different dynamics. Till the tip of 2018, the Bashar al-Assad regime, backed by Russia and Iran, captured opposition strongholds in Ghouta, Darayya, Qalamoun, Homs, and Daraa. Syrians who refused to reside beneath Assad have been deported to northern Aleppo as a part of an settlement signed between rebels and the regime. With these give up agreements, the agricultural area of Aleppo obtained hundreds of latest city and Arab internally displaced individuals (IDPs) through the infamous inexperienced buses, turning Afrin into a brand new shelter for them.

Moreover, a second migration dynamic occurred to Afrin. Whereas much less in amount, it was politically extra vital. After HTS started to dominate a part of Idlib province south of Afrin, many activist, political, and navy figures needed to flee for his or her security.

With the brand new IDP flows, Afrin turned from a predominantly Kurdish area into a mixture of Kurds and Arabs. Nonetheless, the SNA—primarily Jabhat al-Shamiyah, the largest navy faction of the SNA that stood up for the rights of Kurds in Afrin—deployed within the metropolis was predominantly Arab. The group led efforts to revive rights to locals and managed to get different factions to approve of them. Syrian Kurdish commanders in Jabhat al-Shamiyah performed an vital position in reaching out to native Kurds. On the opposite facet, the chief of the Sultan Sulaiman Shah navy faction, Abu Amsha, was convicted by Syrian judges for crimes in opposition to the native folks. Nonetheless, the choice was by no means applied.

HTS’ entry into Afrin

To the south of Afrin, HTS had different enlargement plans. To start with of 2022, it reached out to rivals of Jabhat al-Shamiyah, who feared that the group may dominate them. Earlier than, HTS used its dominance in Idlib province to plot a coup inside its former rival, the Ahrar al-Sham navy faction, and assist figures near HTS to be in cost. In June, when infighting broke out between Jabhat al-Shamiyah and Ahrar al-Sham in northern Aleppo, the latter known as HTS for assist. HTS superior swiftly however needed to return the following day after an settlement was signed with Jabhat al-Shamiyah.

Nonetheless, the settlement didn’t assure that HTS wouldn’t strive once more. Throughout the newest infighting in northern Aleppo in October, HTS used its new outreach with the rivals of Jabhat al-Shamiyah and re-entered Afrin. For this goal, HTS reached out and established a relationship with the remoted Sultan Sulaiman Shah and Firka Hamza navy factions of the SNA in northern Syria. Based mostly on these ties, HTS was in a position to intervene once more and ended up staying. The group established its inside safety construction, cleaned the streets, and tried to achieve out to the area people. In negotiations with Jabhat al-Shamiyah, HTS demanded the tip of governance by the Syrian Interim Authorities and requested a unified governance construction of the Salvation Authorities—the civil face of HTS for governance in Idlib.

Regardless that HTS managed Afrin, its push towards the town of Azaz was blocked. Regardless of heavy combating, Jabhat al-Shamiyah resisted for days and prevented its entry to Azaz. Throughout these days in mid-October, demonstrators demanded the withdrawal of HTS to Idlib and rejected its potential entry into their cities.

After the combating reached a stalemate, Turkey reportedly issued an ultimatum on October 17 that demanded HTS totally withdraw from Afrin, pushing HTS to lastly depart and stop the takeover of the remainder of northern Aleppo province. Nonetheless, reporting from the bottom in Afrin claimed that HTS-led cells and disguised personnel proceed to remain behind. Nonetheless, with the help of Turkey, the civil police of the native councils and navy police of the SNA proceed their seek for potential cells. Apparently, the efforts have been profitable in order that civilians in Afrin might exit and demonstrate in opposition to HTS. Moreover, to stop HTS from re-entering once more, the Turkish military bolstered limitations that separated Afrin from Idlib.

Survival of radicals versus survival of the Syrian opposition

At first look, with these incursions, the chief of HTS, Mohammad al-Jolani, seems to be a practical jihadist or an opportunistic warlord. Nonetheless, in actuality, the motives are extra associated to survival than opportunism.

The present relative calm in Syria—as a result of Turkish-Russian ceasefire settlement on 5 March 2020, Turkey’s relative success in stopping navy management of Idlib province, and Russia’s occupation of Ukraine—is illusive. Jolani is aware of this. To outlive, the HTS chief desires to dominate all the opposition-held areas of Syria and acquire a place of indispensability. Understanding that Turkey can’t danger one other refugee circulate and due to this fact can’t withdraw from Syria, HTS goals to pressure itself as the one different upon worldwide actors within the West and Turkey and be delisted from the designated terrorist record of respective international locations.

In distinction, for Syrians who proceed to help the aspirations of the 2011 Syrian revolution, this implies their final maintain in Syria is endangered. The inter-factional dynamics created an Achilles’ heel that may be exploited by an actor vertically against these aspirations. The most recent incursion of HTS into Afrin could also be a powerful warning to Syria’s political and navy actors to right the plan of action. Now, public opinion has been woke up by the potential hazard from Idlib. The continuity of the general public demonstrations can shift native dynamics and have already began a dialogue about enhancing situations and governance constructions in northern Aleppo.

Native Syrian Kurds and the internally displaced in Afrin must work hand-in-hand to oppose three enemies concurrently: the Assad regime, YPG, and HTS. The factions of the SNA additionally want a scientific answer to their infighting and rivalries, which make them susceptible. Looking back, the belated ultimatum by Turkey helped overcome ignorance and seems to be working as a form of wake-up name. The ultimatum offered native dynamics with time and a brand new understanding of the necessity to enhance capabilities and situations. It’s now time for native actors to work on it and for state actors to help these native actors.

Ömer Özkizilcik is a overseas coverage and safety analyst based mostly in Ankara. Observe him on Twitter: @OmerOzkizilcik.

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