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On October 24, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev arrived in Georgia for a one-day working go to. The abrupt nature of Aliyev’s go to was characterised as “unusual” and “mysterious” by many specialists in Tbilisi (Civil.ge; Netgazeti.ge, October 24). Certainly, the brevity of the go to and its format raised questions. David Avalishvili of Nation.ge underscored in a November 20 interview with this creator that “it appeared like an emergency go to attributable to the pressing want to debate essential geopolitical points with the Georgian management” (Creator’s interview, November 20). He added that the statements of the Azerbaijani president and Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili at a briefing close to the Chateau Mukhrani, within the centrally positioned Mtskheta Municipality, did little to make clear the state of affairs.
Aliyev’s pressing working go to passed off with a transparent violation of conventional diplomatic protocols: the Azerbaijani president didn’t discover the time to fulfill with Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili, to which the Georgian head of state expressed her bewilderment. Earlier, she had requested for such a gathering, although she was by no means notified in regards to the go to of “the chief of a neighboring, pleasant nation” (Civil.ge, October 25).
Zurabishvili was supported in her response by plenty of skilled diplomats. For instance, former Georgian Overseas Minister Irakli Menagarishvili, who served from 1995 to 2004, instructed this creator that he can not keep in mind a single go to of the president from any nation to Georgia with out first scheduling a gathering with the pinnacle of state, even when the go to was of a working nature. “I refuse to know and refuse to simply accept any rationalization,” Menagarishvili emphasised (Creator’s interview, November 20).
Aliyev left Georgia on the identical day he arrived (Agenda.ge, October 24). Earlier, he had mentioned, at a press convention with Garibashvili, that he was able to implement “new power tasks” to provide fuel and oil to Europe through Georgian territory. Right here, the Azerbaijani president particularly had in thoughts sending elevated oil provides through the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline, expanded use of the Supsa oil terminal on Georgia’s Black Coastline and the development of a submarine cable for supplying 157 gigawatts of electrical energy to Europe (Agenda.ge, October 24).
Whereas Aliyev and Garibashvili didn’t signal a single official doc on power provides, the Azerbaijani president’s go to match into the bigger “puzzle” of main geopolitical upheavals within the area, largely being precipitated by Russia’s all-out aggression in opposition to Ukraine. Certainly, Western sanctions in opposition to Moscow have successfully modified the “map of power” and transport routes within the wider Eurasian area (Amerikiskhma.com, October 25).
The occasions that passed off after Aliyev’s departure from Georgia totally verify this reality. On October 26, Garibashvili visited Budapest, Hungary, and met with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Throughout a joint press convention, Orbán underlined that main power initiatives are being developed. “It’s fascinating for us to have new transmission strains to obtain power from Azerbaijan by means of Georgia,” the Hungarian premier noticed. He additional argued, “With this initiative, we are going to save on pure fuel, which we at present use to generate electrical energy. If this electrical energy is provided on to us sooner or later, then we are going to now not must buy pure fuel to generate electrical energy.” Orbán concluded that he’s “very glad Garibashvili helps this initiative, which is of nice significance for Hungary” (Radio Tavisupleba, October 27).
Moreover, it was extraordinarily essential to Georgia that Orbán characterised Brussels’ refusal to grant Georgia EU candidate standing as extremely “discriminatory” (JAM-news.web, October 27).
Nevertheless, the Chateau Mukhrani settlement between Aliyev and Garibashvili didn’t solely cowl electricity-generation considerations. On July 18, when European Fee President Ursula von der Leyen visited Baku, Azerbaijan signed an settlement with the European Union to double fuel provides by means of pipelines passing by means of Georgia by 2027—as much as 20 billion cubic meters each year (Azertag, July 18).
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Lately, EU diplomatic head Josep Borrell identified that, right this moment, the states of Central Asia can solely entry the European and world markets by means of Russia. “Overdependence and lack of alternative can come at a heavy value—we have now discovered from bitter expertise,” Borrell stipulated (Eeas.europa.eu, November 17). That is primarily in reference to the necessity for expanded use of the Trans-Caspian Worldwide Transport Route (or Center Hall) connecting China and Europe through Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. The EU diplomatic official additionally famous that the European Financial institution for Reconstruction and Improvement is at present finishing a feasibility research for this transit route.
Past this, Georgia has already turn out to be an intriguing different transit hall for the availability of products to Europe from Asia (see EDM, September 15; October 5). Impartial power and transit knowledgeable, Giorgi Khuhashvili, famous in a November 21 interview with this creator that the “Azerbaijani-Georgian different hall” right this moment is likely one of the most consequential matters of debate for Europe in opposition to the backdrop of Russia’s warfare in opposition to Ukraine (Creator’s interview, November 21). “We dwell in an period when the geopolitical and geo-economic capabilities of the South Caucasus has tremendously elevated. Till now, the primary land routes from Asia, together with China, to Europe handed by means of Russia,” Khuhashvili argued. He added that, within the latest previous, it was fairly tough for Georgia to compete with this “mega-route,” however the “Russian hall” is now successfully closed on account of Moscow’s aggression in opposition to Ukraine. As Khuhashvili careworn, “Accordingly, curiosity in our different hall has grown considerably. However the realization of this opportunity and potential requires very shut coordination between Georgia and Azerbaijan, as a result of solely collectively can these two international locations turn out to be a ‘bridge to Europe.’”
Skilled on the Caucasus, Mamuka Areshidze, believes that Aliyev and Garibashvili had been chosen by the Europeans so they might “voice” largely Western-leaning tasks, which, in parallel with decreasing Europe’s transport and power dependence on Russia, additionally means strengthening the present safety infrastructure within the South Caucasus. This would come with the North Atlantic Treaty Group’s extra lively participation within the peaceable decision of the conflicts in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Karabakh, in addition to the creation of ensures for Tbilisi’s total home safety and stability. In reality, with out making certain the peaceable and sustainable growth of the Georgian state, the possible “power hall” and “transport bridge” could collapse within the occasion of renewed direct Russian aggression in opposition to Tbilisi or a “proxy” separatists assault on Georgian territory (Creator’s interview November 17). This total imaginative and prescient was confirmed throughout a latest go to to Tbilisi by European Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement, and Hungarian politician, Olivér Várhelyi (Civil.ge, November 15)
In reaffirming their shared imaginative and prescient for the area’s expanded transit potential, on November 25, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Kazakhstan signed the settlement “Roadmap for the Improvement of the Center Hall” (Ekhokavkaza.com, November 25). As a part of the accord, the 4 signatories agreed on a plan to finish expanded growth of this transit route by the tip of 2027.
Nevertheless, this opening for Georgia to turn out to be a brand new regional transit hub requires the accountable administration of those numerous agreements by the ruling Georgian Dream occasion, which the opposition has accused of oligarchic rule and widespread persecution of political opponents (see EDM, June 27; September 14). Thus, it stays to be seen if Tbilisi, together with Baku, will be capable of seize this extremely consequential second.
By the Jamestown Basis
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