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After the final vote was polled in Gujarat in the course of the second part of Meeting elections — an total turnout of 60.94 per cent was recorded — all eyes turned to the exit polls. Going by the predictions, it’s seventh heaven for the Bharatiya Janata Get together (BJP) in Gujarat, whereas it’s a useless warmth in Himachal Pradesh the place most pollsters gave an edge to the ruling social gathering over the Congress.
In line with all exit polls, the BJP will return to energy in Gujarat with a giant mandate, successful 117-151 seats within the 182-member Meeting, whereas the Congress must take care of the second place, securing 16-51 seats. The exit polls additionally predicted that the Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Get together (AAP) would bag something between two to 13 seats, serving to them purchase the nationwide social gathering standing.
In Himachal Pradesh, the exit polls have additionally predicted a victory for the BJP. Nonetheless, one of many ballot surveys by Aaj Tak-Axis My India has predicted increased seats, 30-40, for Congress as towards BJP’s 24-34.
As we now await the ultimate outcomes on 8 December, we attempt to decode what the exit polls imply for every social gathering and the nationwide political situation forward of the gargantuan 2024 normal elections.
In Gujarat, it’s all concerning the BJP
The exit polls have predicted an enormous win for the BJP within the western state of Gujarat. This election’s predicted win appears to outdo the final one when the BJP might safe solely 99 seats.
In actual fact, this election appears to place them nearer to breaking the 1985 file when the Congress underneath Madhavasinh Solanki received 149 seats. One of many seven exit polls — Aaj Tak-Axis My India — has predicted the best 129-151 seats for the social gathering.
It additionally seems that the latest Morbi bridge collapse by which 135 folks misplaced their lives had no influence on folks’s voting.
Furthermore, if the exit polls come true it additionally signifies that the BJP would safe a authorities until 2027 since 1990, surpassing West Bengal’s Communist Get together of India- Marxist, which dominated the state for 34 years (from 1977 to 2011).
The exit polls additionally reveal that the Modi wave continues to be robust in Gujarat and that the calls of change by different events — the Congress and AAP — don’t have a hoop within the state.
Additionally learn: Defined: How are exit polls carried out in India? How correct are they?
The exit polls additionally present that the 27 rallies, together with the one he had after casting his vote at a polling sales space in Ranip, held by Prime Minister Modi had resonance with the general public. Monday’s rally additionally led to the Congress submitting a criticism with the Election Fee, stating {that a} roadshow on an election day, breached the Mannequin Code of Conduct. The Extra Chief Electoral Officer mentioned their experiences don’t point out that “it was a roadshow and the group was there by itself”.
AAP’s dent in Gujarat
The AAP launched its Gujarat marketing campaign buoyed by its efficiency within the 2021 civic polls. Nonetheless, the Gujarat Meeting election exhibits that the general public votes in another way in every election — civic, state and nationwide.
The AAP launched an intense marketing campaign within the state, some political pundits noticed that AAP’s campaigning was on par with that of the BJP. Its chief and Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal and Punjab chief minister Bhagwant Mann did as many rallies a day as Modi.
The AAP, led by Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal, carried out intense campaigning in Gujarat. File picture/PTI
Nonetheless, the takeaway for the AAP is that Gujarat is probably prepared for a change, however not but. The AAP’s marketing campaign resting on the phrase ‘parivartan’ couldn’t make a dent to the BJP slogan of “Phir ek baar, Modi Sarkar (As soon as once more, Modi authorities)”. This clearly illustrates that the recognition of Prime Minister Modi continues to be a potent weapon, one he can use to his benefit within the 2024 normal elections.
The AAP, nevertheless, can take solace that it will likely be altering the dynamics of Gujarat elections — presenting a viable third choice to the folks. Securing some seats in Gujarat can even assist the AAP’s enlargement plans — turning it from a state entity to a nationwide outfit.
BJP breaks custom in Himachal Pradesh
The exit polls, barring one, has predicted victory for the BJP in Himachal Pradesh. That is of nice significance, as no incumbent authorities within the hill state has retained energy since 1985.
The final time any social gathering received two consecutive phrases in Himachal Pradesh was the Congress, which did so in 1982 and 1985, based on the Election Fee.
If the exit polls maintain true in Himachal, it will as soon as once more illustrate the facility of Modi’s presence and his sway over voters. Within the run-up to the polls, the prime minister carried out a extremely personalised marketing campaign within the state.
Previous to the polls, Modi went on a ribbon chopping spree within the state. On 13 October, he flagged off the Vande Bharat Categorical prepare from Amb Andaura to New Delhi in Una. He additionally devoted the Indian Institute of Data Know-how (IIIT) to the nation, and lay the inspiration stone of a Bulk Drug Park. Moreover, he laid the inspiration stones of two hydropower initiatives and launch the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana-III in Himachal Pradesh.
On 11 November, a day earlier than the state went to the polls, social gathering members delivered a signed letter by him to 1.5 million households urging them to vote again to energy the social gathering.
Congress maintains establishment
The exit polls have given the Congress no motive to smile. They’ve been unable to make a big influence on the BJP in Gujarat, coming in a distant second. Additionally, most exit polls have proven that the Grand Outdated Get together is not going to win in Himachal, which exhibits that the Gandhi household — Rahul along with his Bharat Jodo Yatra and Priyanka personally campaigning in Himachal — has no sway with the voters.
The exit polls could function an indicator to the Congress that its ongoing Kanyakumari-to-Kashmir Bharat Jodo Yatra might not be delivering the outcomes it hoped.
Because of this the Congress will stay in energy solely in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.
With inputs from companies
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