50 Years of China-Australia Relations: Opportunities and Challenges

2022 marks the 50^th anniversary of China-Australia bilateral relations. By way of the previous half century, the 2 international locations have grown to develop into shut buying and selling companions. China’s speedy development has created each robust demand and market prospects for Australian companies.

Nevertheless, in recent times, bilateral ties have seen some pressure. To enhance relations, the 2 international locations’ leaders met on the sidelines of the G20 summit, sending some optimistic indicators.

This text takes a have a look at how the China-Australia bilateral relationship has developed till this vital juncture and discusses future potentialities and challenges.

Bilateral commerce and funding

China is Australia’s largest buying and selling accomplice – each import and export. In the meantime, Australia is China’s fifth largest supply of imports and tenth largest export market. Previously two years, financial and commerce cooperation between the 2 international locations has witnessed steady development, regardless of geopolitical tensions. In 2021, bilateral commerce between the 2 international locations amounted to roughly US$231.2 billion, an increase of 35.1 % year-on-year, with China’s imports from Australia reaching US$164.82 billion, up 40.6 % from 2020. Within the first 9 months of 2022, Australia’s exports to China reached A$172 billion (US$118 billion), an increase of two.7 % year-on-year, whereas its imports from China reached A$101 billion (US$69.5 billion ), a 16.5 % enhance.

Australia imports 25 % of its manufactured merchandise from China. The merchandise transitioned from preliminary imports of textiles and clothes to family home equipment within the Nineteen Nineties to broaden to engineering merchandise and telecommunications gear within the current. Chinese language companies are additionally eager to spend money on Australia, notably in infrastructure tasks.

Australian commodities, particularly meals and agricultural merchandise (beef, wine, barley, and sea meals, to call just a few), pure assets (coal and fuel), and wool, have robust aggressive benefits in China. Australia’s wealthy reserves in vital minerals, notably lithium and iron ore, make it a strategic and vital buying and selling accomplice for China. Chinese language firms even have necessary stakes in key Australian mines.

Commerce agreements and regional cooperation

China–Australia Free Commerce Settlement (ChAFTA)

The 2 international locations have established commerce relations by means of a variety of mechanisms. In 2015, the China–Australia Free Commerce Settlement (ChAFTA) entered into pressure, paving the way in which for a detailed financial relationship for 10 years. The ChAFTA continues to raise the competitiveness of Australian items and companies, by offering Australians with higher entry to China and securing the market.

Regional Complete Financial Partnership (RCEP)

An initiative to spice up commerce and funding within the Indo-Pacific area, the RCEP consists of China, Japan, South Korea, Australia/New Zealand, and Southeast Asia (ASEAN bloc international locations) and got here into pressure in January 2022. Whereas nonetheless in its infancy, the RCEP holds significance for China and for overseas traders. It supplies yet one more platform for China to work together with main markets like Australia on commerce.

Complete and Progressive Settlement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)

The CPTPP is one other free commerce settlement within the Asia-Pacific area. Its member international locations characterize 13 % of world GDP. Australia ratified the settlement in 2018. Whereas China isn’t an official member but, it submitted its CPTPP utility in September 2021. Prospects stay that China might be accepted with sure reforms in its enterprise sectors.

Political tensions and its affect on commerce

Regardless of the scope of market alternatives, bilateral relations between China and Australia haven’t at all times been clean. Tensions have cropped up on a spread of points associated to expertise, politics, and commerce.

In 2018, Australia turned the primary nation within the 5 Eyes intelligence alliance to ban Huawei and ZTE telecommunications gear, citing nationwide safety issues. Following this, Australia has pursued numerous US-led initiatives aimed toward countering China’s rising footprint within the Indo-Pacific area, together with the Quadrilateral Safety Dialogue, the Indo-Pacific Financial Framework, Companions within the Blue Pacific, and the AUKUS alliance.

Extra just lately, in early 2020, bilateral relations skilled a pointy downturn amid tensions relating to the origins of Covid-19. After China imposed import sanctions on a variety of Australian items – together with coal, barley, wine, beef and seafood – Australia adopted up by taking the commerce disputes with China to the World Commerce Group and cancelled a Belt and Highway Initiative deal between China and the state of Victoria.

Such incidents have had a extreme affect on commerce. The Australian authorities estimated that the tariffs may price its financial system about A$20 billion a yr, with wine, barley, lobsters, beef, and coal among the many most-hit merchandise. Equally, Chinese language companies confronted tightened scrutiny, particularly on offers involving vital infrastructure.

2022 improvement: Xi-Albanese assembly on the G20 summit

On November 15, 2022, Chinese language President Xi Jinping and Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese met throughout the G20 summit in Indonesia, after a protracted diplomatic freeze. This was the primary formal assembly between the 2 leaders since 2016. They exchanged opinions on commerce, acknowledging the economies had been “extremely complementary.”

Although the assembly was extensively seen as a thaw in bilateral ties, no actual breakthroughs had been made, with the restrictions on A$20 billion (US$13.4 billion) value of Australian exports nonetheless in place and no enchancment within the situations to create a greater funding surroundings for Chinese language companies in Australia. The current go to of Australian lawmakers to Taiwan in December solid an extra but gloomy layer to the bilateral relationship.

Earlier this yr, Albanese cautioned that Australia’s “relationship with China will stay tough.” Given the nation’s Labor authorities’s coverage to rebuild Australia’s manufacturing business, Canberra might even impose heavier tariffs on Chinese language imports. With rising geopolitical pressure between China and the West, Australia might also veer within the route of US and Canada on vital minerals safety, additional limiting commerce potential with China.

Nevertheless, regardless of these tensions and commerce restrictions on chosen merchandise, China nonetheless counts for greater than 35 % of Australian exports and 20 % of imports. Furthermore, iron ore, wool, and fuel weren’t hit by the sanctions, and lots of of Australia’s largest firms continued to profit from Chinese language exports. The sheer dimension of commerce with China was 3 times increased than that with the US. Australia and China even have shared pursuits in a spread of trade-related issues, equivalent to e-commerce, sustainability, and local weather change. For instance, Western Australia is working to step up its area analysis cooperation with China.

Funding prospects in China in 2023

With the scale and variety of its financial system, China nonetheless stands as a significant funding vacation spot for Australia. With the gradual opening-up and rest of COVID restrictions in China, the Chinese language public curiosity in tourism and abroad training will spring again.

Along with present markets in agricultural items, pure assets, and wool, there additionally exist extra alternatives with adjustments within the Chinese language financial system. For one, the Chinese language marketplace for extra superior items and companies of top of the range will probably broaden.

Rising wages and rising client wants for high quality merchandise will enhance demand for extra subtle manufactured items and companies. Australia’s experience in medical gadgets, human assets, city improvement, and financing supply immense potential for exports and investments.