Tajikistan: The Taliban’s Toughest Critic

The shocking pace with which the Taliban took management over most of Afghanistan after international forces started withdrawing from the nation left Afghanistan’s neighbors in a troublesome predicament.

All of them had thought-about the likelihood the militant group may seize energy, however all of a sudden they wanted to publicly state what their coverage towards Taliban-ruled Afghanistan was.

Usually, the response was that the Taliban in cost was the truth and the neighboring nations had been keen to a minimum of discuss with these new leaders of Afghanistan.

Besides Tajikistan.

Pakistan — lengthy a backer of the Taliban — clearly welcomed the group’s success in Afghanistan.

China, Iran, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan all conceded there was nothing they may do about Afghan inner politics and held out hope that some type of cooperation with the Taliban is likely to be potential.

However Tajik authorities have taken a special place and that has raised questions on why Tajik President Emomali Rahmon and his authorities proceed to clarify their sturdy opposition to a Taliban authorities in Afghanistan.

First, it’s price remembering that Rahmon was Tajikistan’s chief greater than 20 years in the past when the Taliban had management of most of Afghanistan.

Not one of the different present leaders within the nations bordering Afghanistan had been in energy when the Taliban was ousted by a U.S.-led navy invasion in 2001.

Rahmon supported a gaggle led by ethnic Tajiks in Afghanistan who had been combating the Taliban within the late Nineties and he has given ethical assist to the ethnic Tajiks in Afghanistan now — together with the holdout group within the Panjshir Valley that continues to oppose Taliban rule.

There’s a giant inhabitants of ethnic Tajiks in Afghanistan — the place they make up about 25 p.c of the inhabitants — and the Tajiks in Tajikistan really feel a robust connection to them.

That isn’t true of any of the opposite states neighboring Afghanistan.

The truth is, Rahmon’s public concern for the Tajiks in Afghanistan has earned the widely unpopular chief of Tajikistan some uncommon public assist in his nation, an essential element as he positions his eldest son, Rustam, to take over as president.

Tajikistan’s Civil Struggle

There may be one more reason it could be troublesome for Rahmon’s authorities to publicly interact with the Taliban.

Throughout Tajikistan’s 1992-1997 civil battle, the Islamic Renaissance Social gathering of Tajikistan (IRPT) was the foremost group in an alliance of forces combating in opposition to the Tajik authorities. The battle ended with a peace settlement that offered for 30 p.c of the positions in authorities to be crammed by representatives of the wartime opposition. The IRPT was legalized and was the second largest celebration in Tajikistan after Rahmon’s Folks’s Democratic Social gathering of Tajikistan.

The IRPT was additionally probably the most important risk to Rahmon’s rising grip on energy and in September 2015 — after years of pressuring the IRPT and its management and whittling down its locations in state our bodies — the federal government used a weird and obscure incident involving a high-ranking officer within the Protection Ministry to make doubtful claims that the IRPT had tried to stage a coup. The IRPT was shortly declared an extremist group and its actions banned in Tajikistan.

The IRPT is an Islamic-based political celebration, however it’s much more average than the Taliban.

It’s troublesome to see how the Tajik authorities may set up ties with the Taliban, not to mention think about recognizing a Taliban authorities, whereas persevering with to hunt and repress members of the IRPT.

And Tajikistan’s chief Islamic cleric, Saidmukarram Abdulkodirzoda, made it clear in a September 11 interview with state information company Khovar that enhancing ties with the Taliban is out of the query.

“Islam is compassion and brotherhood,” Abdulkodirzoda mentioned. “However right now the terrorist motion generally known as the Taliban name themselves an Islamic state and execute ladies, kids, and brothers.”

Abdulkodirzoda had extra to say and, since all of Tajikistan’s prime clerics are rigorously vetted by the federal government, his views might be taken as the federal government’s views.

The large query is how Rahmon and his authorities can really feel so assured in confronting the Taliban.

The reply to that is harder to discern.

Tajikistan is, when it comes to territory, the smallest of Afghanistan’s neighbors and economically it’s the poorest.

Although small, Tajikistan’s navy has been receiving assist from highly effective nations for a few years.

Russia is the most important provider of arms to Tajikistan, however China has been rising its help to the nation’s armed forces for greater than a decade. And the USA, NATO, the European Union, and the OSCE — whereas not supplying weapons — have been serving to with cash and tools for border posts, surveillance tools, winter and summer season clothes, off-road automobiles, and different such gadgets.

None of that’s prone to cow the Taliban or, extra importantly for Tajikistan, a few of the extremist teams which have been combating alongside the Taliban for years, many with roots in Tajikistan.

And Rahmon appears fairly conscious of this.

Not many nations welcomed the Taliban coming to energy in Afghanistan. Official press statements typically categorical a fatalism in regards to the flip of occasions, however there may be not a lot enthusiasm for what has occurred for the reason that U.S.-led navy withdrawal started on Could 1.

Tajikistan’s authorities is little question saying what many governments are considering.

The Carnegie Endowment’s Paul Stronski talked about this throughout a current Majlis podcast and recommended Tajikistan is a messenger for the views of different nations.

Tajik political skilled Khairullo Mirsaidov agreed, telling RFE/RL’s Tajik Service, identified regionally as Ozodi, “Rahmon couldn’t have made such a press release with out Russian consent. Now that the USA has left the area, Russia doesn’t need to give full management of Afghanistan to Pakistan.”

He added: “It additionally offers momentum for Rahmon to take a chance for inner use of the subject, bringing him nearer to his personal individuals.”

Russia has a navy base in Tajikistan and China has a small navy put up within the jap a part of the nation.

Each Moscow and Beijing have expressed confidence that it’s potential to take care of the Taliban, however each are involved by the presence of militants from their very own nations who’re in teams at the moment inside Afghanistan which might be allied to the Taliban.

And there are numerous nations with residents nonetheless inside Afghanistan and the governments of these nations have to hold this in consideration when commenting on occasions within the nation.

After Rahmon mentioned throughout an August 25 assembly with visiting Pakistani International Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi that Tajikistan wouldn’t acknowledge any Afghan authorities that was seen as unique, he particularly talked about that he anticipated ethnic Tajiks to be included.

The following day, French President Emmanuel Macron invited Rahmon to go to Paris.

Which proved that there are clearly some dividends to be gained by brazenly opposing Taliban rule in Afghanistan — and Rahmon appears to understand that.

RFE/RL Tajik Service Director Salimjon Aioubov contributed to this report