Turkey signals potential rapprochement with Syria’s Assad

ANKARA, Turkey — Turkey is more and more signaling its readiness for a thawing of relations with the Assad regime in Syria.

Why it issues: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Syrian counterpart, Bashar al-Assad, have been at one level shut allies, however the two leaders haven’t been in touch for the reason that outbreak of the Syrian civil conflict.

• Erdoğan and Assad have traded harsh accusations — with the Turkish chief stressing that the Syrian president should be ousted.
• However Ankara, which has backed the Syrian rebels, has lately shifted from looking for Assad’s removing to prioritizing home safety by halting the development of Kurdish fighters alongside Turkey’s borders with Syria.

Driving the information: In a name with Vladimir Putin final week, Erdoğan proposed the Russian president maintain a trilateral summit between the leaders of Turkey, Russia and Syria to debate joint counterterrorism.

• “First, our intelligence organizations ought to come collectively, then our protection ministers after which our international ministers ought to meet,” Erdoğan advised reporters.
• Hakan Fidan, the pinnacle of Turkey’s Nationwide Intelligence Group, has met along with his Syrian counterpart, Ali Mamlouk, in Damascus a number of occasions this 12 months to attempt to organize a gathering between the international ministers.
• The brand new Turkish place was welcomed by Russia, which has already been getting ready the trail for a attainable assembly between the 2 leaders.

Between the strains: Any reconciliation between Turkey and Syria is anticipated to occur steadily.

• Damascus has to this point been cautious about re-engaging with Ankara, particularly forward of Turkey’s presidential and parliamentary elections which might be scheduled for June.

State of play: Damascus considers Turkey, which has a army presence in giant swaths of northern Syria, to be an occupying energy.

• Erdoğan for months has vowed to start a brand new floor incursion into the area in opposition to Kurdish teams. Turkey lately launched drone, air and artillery strikes throughout the border into Syria.
• Ankara views the Individuals’s Safety Models (YPG) in Syria as an extension of the outlawed Kurdistan Staff Social gathering, a militant group designated as a terrorist group by each the U.S. and Turkey.
• Ankara and Damascus are on the identical web page about ending the presence of the YPG and U.S. troops, who’ve backed the principally Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces in northern Syria.

The large image: A Turkish-Syrian rapprochement would require an in depth plan for the repatriation of greater than 3.7 million Syrian refugees at the moment in Turkey.

• The prospect of sending Syrian refugees again to their homeland would increase Erdoğan’s possibilities for re-election subsequent 12 months.
• Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the chief of Turkey’s primary opposition social gathering, generally known as the Republican Individuals’s Social gathering, stated in February that if he have been elected, Turkey would take normalization steps with the Assad regime and ship all of the Syrian refugees again to their residence nation.

What they’re saying: Former U.S. envoy to Syria James Jeffrey, who visited Ankara in early December, stated in an interview on the Turkish channel NTV that Turkey received’t get something from assembly the Syrian regime.

• However Erdoğan lately emphasised that Turkey might “get issues on monitor with Syria. There may be no resentment in politics.”

What to look at: It is nonetheless unclear to what extent Ankara finish its assist to Syrian opposition forces combating Damascus and whether or not Ankara will settle for Assad’s demand to withdraw its troops from Syria.