Five Stories To Watch In Central Asia In 2023

ALMATY — From crackdowns on protesters to lethal border clashes and the fallout from Russia’s battle in Ukraine, 2022 was a memorable yr in Central Asia for all of the flawed causes.

Listed below are 5 tales that formed the area in 2022 and will have a bearing on occasions in Central Asia within the yr forward.

‘Social Tensions’ Fueled By Inflation

In Kazakhstan, 2022 started with unprecedented anti-government protests and a brutal state crackdown that left no less than 238 folks lifeless. The unrest ended after Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev referred to as in Russia-led troops from the Collective Safety Treaty Group (CSTO).

The nationwide demonstrations had been initially triggered by a hike within the worth of gas. However the protests rapidly grew right into a present of anger over corruption and nepotism that has plagued the nation for years.

Whereas they crack down on opponents — each actual and perceived — the largest menace to the authoritarian governments of Central Asia is surging meals costs, observers say.

The price of residing within the area has soared because of the coronavirus, provide points prompted by the pandemic, and the battle in Ukraine.

As of November, yearly inflation in Kazakhstan stood at 19.6 %, with meals costs growing by round 24 %.

These figures are worrying not just for Kazakhstan however for neighboring international locations that depend upon it for meals exports, in keeping with financial analyst Tulegen Askarov.

“Inflation is a very powerful supply of social tensions now,” says Askarov.

Constraints on native buying energy will give governments much less wiggle room to overtake home power techniques which might be falling drastically brief.

Specialists have lengthy warned that the area’s low tariffs deter funding within the energy sector. However after what occurred in Kazakhstan this yr, it stays to be seen if any authorities will threat main worth hikes.

Can Anybody Cease Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan Border Clashes?

The previous yr was marked by bouts of lethal border clashes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In September, preventing killed round 100 folks.

For years, Russia had watched on as relations between two nations the place it maintains army bases unraveled. However in October, Russian President Vladimir Putin met along with his Kyrgyz counterpart, Sadyr Japarov, and Tajik chief Emomali Rahmon in Kazakhstan in an try to assist resolve the disputes.

However it stays unclear if Moscow is keen or capable of mediate an answer to the fixed border clashes.

Kyrgyzstan-based political scientist Medet Tiulegenov mentioned that, with the Kremlin slowed down in a disastrous battle in Ukraine, it’s unlikely will probably be capable of play a decisive position in resolving points that date again to the early days of the Soviet Union.

“Russia’s participation in varied conflicts across the post-Soviet area furthermore suggests it isn’t a celebration that’s efficient at managing mutual mistrust and bringing international locations collectively,” Tiulegenov mentioned.

The political scientist mentioned that the chance of a 3rd main escalation in three years in 2023 is “not low.”

Can Kazakhstan Maintain Russia At Arm’s Size?

The one Central Asian nation to share a border with Russia, Kazakhstan noticed its ties with its northern neighbor deteriorate after it failed to affix Belarus in endorsing the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine, sparing itself the specter of Western sanctions.

Astana’s neutrality pledge triggered a barrage of insults and threats from Russian politicians and public figures, starting from claims that Kazakhstan must be grateful to Moscow for its safety intervention in January to thinly veiled threats of invasion.

On a number of events this yr, Moscow additionally minimize off Kazakhstan’s entry to a Russia-controlled oil pipeline that Astana depends on to export crude to the European Union. The transfer is an indication that Moscow is punishing its ally for failing to point out enough loyalty, in keeping with some observers.

This month, Kazakhstan joined 13 different international locations in voting in opposition to a United Nations Common Meeting decision condemning rights abuses in Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow annexed in 2014. Beforehand, Astana had abstained on Ukraine-related resolutions.

A consultant of Kazakhstan’s Overseas Ministry, Aibek Smadiyarov, mentioned on-line criticism of the vote had “an emotional hue.”
Whereas recognizing Ukraine’s territorial integrity, Kazakhstan’s constant place was “to not hurt, however to assist in overcoming problematic points,” Smadiyarov mentioned.

However Kazakh lawmaker Aidos Sarym advised RFE/RL’s Kazakh Service that the choice was corresponding to appeasing an alcoholic neighbor, including that he hoped Kazakhstan would abstain in future votes.

Analyst Dimash Alzhanov advised the service that Kazakhstan’s failure to modernize its army and safety companies meant that it could proceed to look to Moscow for its safety wants.

Holding Onto Energy By Handing It Down?

In Turkmenistan, Central Asia’s most remoted and authoritarian nation, President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov stepped down and handed energy to his son, Serdar, in a managed election in March.

One other transition may happen in Tajikistan, the place there’s mounting hypothesis that Rahmon is getting ready handy the reins to his son, Rustam Emomali.

Rahmon, 70, has been bestowed with the title of “Chief of the Nation,” suggesting he’s prone to wield appreciable affect even when he steps down.

In Turkmenistan, the elder Berdymukhammedov continues to play the position of a president. Authorities simply introduced {that a} newly constructed metropolis could be named in his honor.

Deirdre Tynan, a senior adviser at Tempo World Methods, says actual change is unlikely, even when there’s a change on the prime.

“Neither Rahmon nor Berdymukhamedov senior are inspirational position fashions relating to good governance. How far can an apple fall from a tree?” Tynan advised RFE/RL.

Father-son transitions can produce stress in addition to continuity, she warned.

“The brand new, youthful leaders inherit energy constructions that won’t really feel the identical sense of loyalty to them as they did their fathers, and the dangers right here abound,” Tynan mentioned.

Kyrgyzstan’s Unrest-Crackdown Cycle

The previous yr witnessed among the most violent state crackdowns in Central Asia in years.

In July, Uzbek safety forces used deadly pressure to crush protests over mooted constitutional modifications affecting the nation’s autonomous Karakalpakstan area, inflicting 21 deaths, in keeping with an official toll.

In Tajikistan, the federal government’s crackdown on protests within the restive Gorno-Badakhshan area in Could killed no less than 16 folks, though witnesses mentioned the toll was a lot larger.

Traditionally, these extra authoritarian governments have managed to crush dissent with out placing regime survival on the road.

However in Kyrgyzstan, the area’s most pluralistic nation, crackdowns have usually come again to chew jittery administrations.

After revolutions in 2005, 2010, and 2020, it stays to be seen whether or not the shrinking area afforded to the opposition by Japarov will provoke one other backlash.

Analyst Emil Dzhuraev says the Japarov authorities will survive within the brief time period as a result of it’s “completely different from a few of its predecessors in vital methods.”

Specifically, Dzhuraev mentioned, the present administration “enjoys a stronger assist and extra mobilized following amongst rural residents” who’ve historically performed a central position in anti-government uprisings.

However this assist “has been declining over time,” Dzhuraev mentioned.