Berdimuhamedov Headed to China for State Visit – The Diplomat

Later this week, Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov will journey to China on the invitation of Chinese language President Xi Jinping. The go to, scheduled for January 5-6 based on the official Chinese language International Ministry announcement, will likely be Berdimuhamedov’s first journey of 2023, however he’ll be Xi’s second visitor of the 12 months after Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. visits Beijing earlier within the week.

Given the recurring opacity of each regimes, we now have few particulars concerning the journey. That mentioned, we are able to anticipate vitality to be on the high of the agenda. 

This will likely be Berdimuhamedov’s first go to, as president, to China since taking up the position from his father, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, in a March 2022 election fully missing competitors. The dynastic succession in Turkmenistan, whereas presenting the alternative for change, has yielded little or no, and none in any respect in Turkmenistan’s overseas relations. 

Berdimuhamedov final met with Xi in September 2022 in Uzbekistan throughout the Shanghai Cooperation Group (SCO) Summit. On the time, Xi was simply then venturing overseas for the primary time because the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. The selection of Central Asia as his vacation spot was strategic. After a primary cease in Kazakhstan, Xi traveled to Uzbekistan for the SCO summit in Samarkand. Though a lot consideration centered on Xi’s assembly with beleaguered Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the summit, Berdimuhamedov had his personal one-on-one with Xi. 

Of their September assembly, Berdimuhamedov reportedly invited Xi to go to Turkmenistan. Xi has visited Turkmenistan simply as soon as since turning into China’s high chief in November 2012 — a September 2013 state go to to Ashgabat made en path to the G-20 summit in St. Petersburg, Russia (after which he made state visits to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan — the place he attended the SCO summit in Bishkek that 12 months). 

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In line with a Chinese language International Ministry readout of the go to, Xi “mentioned that China and Turkmenistan are good-neighborly associates and vital strategic accomplice[s] in vitality.”

Though a lot has modified geopolitically and in any other case since 2013, the China-Turkmenistan relationship has not. As famous above, vitality is anticipated to be a high agenda merchandise throughout Berdimuhamedov’s upcoming go to. 

Turkmenistan is the biggest provider of pure gasoline through pipeline (versus LNG) to China, in 2021 exporting between 31 and 34 billion cubic meters by way of the Central Asia-China gasoline pipeline. The pipeline presently consists of three lively parallel traces (Line A, Line B, and Line C — which grew to become operational in 2009, 2010, and 2014, respectively) that run from Turkmenistan by way of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, and into China. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan export gasoline although the pipeline as nicely, however Turkmenistan soars above by way of quantity, offering a reported 80 % of the gasoline exported by way of the community. The pipeline community’s complete most capability is estimated to be round 55 bcm yearly.

A fourth line, Line D, is below development and can run from the Galkynysh gasoline area in Turkmenistan alongside a unique route, by way of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, after which into China. Whereas the primary three traces had been financed with loans from China Growth Financial institution and Financial institution of China, Line D is reportedly being financed by China Nationwide Petroleum Company (CNPC).

The brand new line has been dogged by delays for nearly a decade now. The part by way of Tajikistan reportedly would require 42 tunnels, the primary of which was accomplished in January 2020. No completion date has been advised publicly.

When completed, Line D is deliberate to have a capability of 30 bcm yearly — which might deliver the Central Asia-China gasoline pipeline community as much as a possible export capability of 85 bcm yearly. Turkmenistan is anticipated to proceed to be the principle provider of gasoline by way of the pipeline.

In anticipation of importing extra gasoline from Turkmenistan, China has continued to put money into growing Turkmenistan’s huge gasoline fields. In August 2021, the 2 sides struck a deal below which CNPC would develop three new wells within the Galkynysh gasoline area. Because the Related Press reported on the time, Ashgabat would pay for CNPC’s providers in gasoline: 17 bcm per 12 months for 3 years. In June 2022, Berdimuhamedov attended the launch of operations at what Chinese language media reported as a “new area” developed by CNPC. At the moment, the 2 sides heralded Ashgabat’s ambition to double exports of gasoline to China to 65 billion cubic meters per 12 months as soon as Line D is accomplished. 

Turkmenistan’s gasoline exports to China haven’t but reached the utmost the prevailing pipeline can carry. For instance, in 2013 — the 12 months earlier than Line C grew to become operational — Turkmenistan exported 24.4 bcm to China through pipeline, based on the BP Statistical Overview of World Vitality (2014). By 2018, that determine had risen to 33.3 bcm. However in 2019 it declined to 31.6 and in 2020 sank additional to 27.2 bcm. The newest assessment cites Turkmen gasoline exports by pipeline to China as recovered to 31.5 bcm, however that’s nonetheless wanting the pipeline community’s capability. 

Each provide and demand are crucial components inducing this ebb and move, with key questions being how a lot gasoline can Turkmenistan really provide and the way a lot gasoline does China need to purchase from Turkmenistan? Turkmenistan is only one of many suppliers — through pipeline and LNG — to China. In recent times, LNG imports have risen to almost double that of pipeline imports, with Australia exporting extra LNG per day to China than Turkmenistan did through pipeline in 2021. In the meantime, China dominates as Turkmenistan’s largest buyer — the one others of be aware being Russia and Iran, at far decrease volumes than China. This generates a sure imbalance within the relationship, with Ashgabat economically depending on China’s patronage.

Returning to Berdimuhamedov’s upcoming go to to China: We will anticipate none of those nuances to be spoken aloud in public. As a substitute, we are able to anticipate the ritual heralding of the great relationship between China and Turkmenistan and the riches Line D will deliver to each side, at any time when it’s completed. All the identical, the truth is far more complicated than the rosy diplomatic statements will mirror.