Just Take Out Min Aung Hlaing

By Igor Blazevic 3 January 2023

Myanmar’s Nationwide Unity Authorities (NUG), Nationwide Unity Consultative Council (NUCC), Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH) and 20 different necessary drivers of the broad, nationwide motion in opposition to the army junta have launched an necessary New Yr Joint Declaration on the Folks’s Revolution.

In it they articulate a transparent imaginative and prescient and roadmap for find out how to lead Myanmar out of the present tragedy brought on by the futile and legal effort of the army junta to seize and consolidate energy. Main actors of the Spring Revolution are displaying unity and mutual settlement on the ideas and key steps for the way and the place to go to finish the violence and destruction of the nation and to discover a strong political resolution on which lasting peace and improvement might be constructed.

Myanmar’s neighbors, different related and anxious international locations within the Indo-Pacific area and key international actors have a transparent alternative. The primary choice is to assist the individuals of Myanmar and their authentic representatives observe the trail that’s outlined within the New Yr Joint Declaration – and that features rejection of the junta and eradication of the army dictatorship.

The opposite choice is to proceed to do little or nothing, resembling by participating in futile efforts to barter an settlement between “all stakeholders” together with the present murderous and illegitimate junta. This strategy will simply result in additional escalation of the junta’s conflict in opposition to the individuals, additional mass atrocities, deepening instability and chaos, continued destruction of civilian infrastructure and the burning to the bottom of lots of of villages, the creation of lots of of hundreds of IDPs (internally displaced individuals) and an extra meltdown of the financial system. On the finish of this path, after years of battle and massive civilian struggling, we could have neither stability underneath consolidated army dictatorship nor negotiated compromise between “all stakeholders”. As an alternative, we could have a damaged, fragmented nation divided into territories (most probably 5 to seven) managed by completely different armed militias with the previous Myanmar military being nothing higher than the worst amongst all predatory militias. It is going to be an irreparably damaged nation, like the present Libya or South Sudan.

This Joint Declaration, in addition to a couple of different statements issued over the New Yr interval (just like the assertion of the Three Brotherhood Alliance and a speech given by Kachin Independence Group chairman Normal N’Ban La) clearly present to worldwide actors and neighbors of Myanmar {that a} dialogue and settlement between all related stakeholders is already current. Such dialogue and settlement is feasible and already exists as soon as one takes Min Aung Hlaing and his legal junta out of the equation. Min Aung Hlaing’s blunder, his failed coup, is the basis of all of the troubles which have occurred in Myanmar since February 2021. His effort to impose energy by means of sheer brutality, homicide and destruction is the one impediment to discovering an answer for the nation.

Take away Min Aung Hlaing and it will likely be attainable to comparatively shortly deescalate the violence, deliver again primary safety, present much-needed humanitarian help, resume financial actions and begin political negotiations, which have a great probability of discovering compromise and settlement in regards to the founding paperwork of a brand new Federal and Democratic Union of Myanmar.

Eradicating Min Aung Hlaing can be a lot simpler than it appears to worldwide actors. He’s already rejected by the individuals of the nation and has a really shaky place inside the army itself. What’s holding him within the sport – along with the brutal violence he’s making use of, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s cynical help, and revenues from Myanmar’s fuel fields – is the readiness of Myanmar’s neighbors to deal with him as an indispensable a part of the “all stakeholders negotiations”.

Begin an lively dialogue with all stakeholders with out Min Aung Hlaing, and assist the processes and actions of all stakeholders with out him – and the junta will collapse in a matter of months. As soon as that occurs, the Myanmar army with out the present junta shall be fast to hitch the political dialogue and negotiations of all stakeholders, and to hitch it in a constructive and productive method.

Myanmar’s neighbors, the Affiliation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the UN and different related worldwide actors have a transparent alternative and a transparent alternative to resolve the deepening state failure of Myanmar. There’s a reasonable probability to attain what we have now not seen in many years – the likelihood for lasting peace and stability.

If Myanmar’s neighbors, ASEAN, the UN and different related worldwide actors miss this opportunity, the nation will proceed to fall deeper and deeper into violence, destruction and fragmentation. Putin may not care about this, however all others, together with China, India and Thailand, have an curiosity in not permitting issues to develop this manner.

Igor Blazevic is senior adviser with the Prague Civil Society Centre. Between 2011 and 2016 he labored in Myanmar as the pinnacle lecturer on the Academic Initiatives Program.