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2022 in Overview: The Affect of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine on South Korea
Printed January 4, 2023
That is the ninth piece in a collection taking a look at how the problems recognized in KEI’s annual “10 Points to Look ahead to on the Korean Peninsula” collection and different problems with be aware developed in 2022. The unique “10 Points” piece will be discovered right here.
Shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, South Korea introduced that it will implement sanctions on Russia by the USA and the European Union. These sanctions and the consequences of the struggle have had a direct affect on South Korean commerce, however have additionally probably impacted South Korea’s coverage in the direction of North Korea.
As results of South Korea’s enforcement of sanctions on Russia, imports from Russia fell 10.4 p.c in comparison with the identical interval by November 2021. South Korean exports declined 34.7 p.c. This contrasts with South Korea’s commerce general which noticed imports enhance by 21.2 p.c and exports develop by 7.8 p.c.
Along with the general decline in commerce, there was a pointy lower in exports of strategic gadgets reminiscent of electrical tools and semiconductors that might help Russia’s struggle effort. Exports {of electrical} equipment, which incorporates semiconductors, fell practically 50 p.c. Exports of semiconductors have been down a steeper 65.8 p.c, whereas exports of reminiscence chips have nearly utterly stopped.
South Korea has additionally begun decreasing imports of most Russian power merchandise. Imports of LNG have been down 36.1 p.c by quantity by November, whereas imports of crude petroleum have been down 55 p.c by quantity and refined petroleum merchandise by 70.1 p.c. Nonetheless, imports of Russian coal are up 14.3 p.c.
The struggle has additionally considerably impacted South Korea’s commerce stability. For the primary time for the reason that International Monetary Disaster, South Korea is projected to run a commerce deficit. Whereas not the one issue, the sharply rising prices of power from Russia’s struggle will be seen in South Korea’s projected commerce deficit. Vitality imports have elevated by $78.1 billion in 2022, whereas South Korea’s commerce deficit was $47.5 billion over the identical interval.
Russia’s struggle in Ukraine can even seemingly have implications for South Korea’s method to North Korea. Earlier proposals for engagement with North Korea have included the event of a pipeline throughout North Korea to convey Russian fuel to South Korea. In gentle of Russia’s weaponization of power exports to Europe, cooperation with North Korea on a pipeline for Russian fuel is extra of a strategic danger than alternative for engagement.
Russia’s use of drones and assaults on civilian targets can even seemingly affect South Korean views on the potential techniques North Korea could use within the occasion of a battle.
Troy Stangarone is Senior Director and Fellow on the Korea Financial Institute of America. The views expressed listed here are the creator’s alone.
Photograph from Shutterstock.
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