Turkmenistan’s Leader Heads To Beijing As Dependence On China Grows

Hoping to spice up his nation’s financial prospects and deepen its power hyperlinks with China, Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov arrived in Beijing on January 5 for a two-day state go to.

Few particulars have been made accessible concerning the journey, however the go to marks Berdymukhammedov’s first official go to to China since succeeding his father, Gurbanguly, as president in March 2022 in a managed election.

Chinese language state media have stated that Berdymukhammedov will meet with Chinese language chief Xi Jinping and that delegations from either side will focus on points starting from Afghanistan to funding by way of Beijing’s Belt and Highway Initiative infrastructure challenge.

However power ties, significantly pure fuel pipelines to China, look set to dominate the Turkmen chief’s go to.

Turkmenistan has the world’s fourth-largest fuel reserves and China performs a central function within the Central Asian nation’s overseas coverage and in powering its economic system.

This rising dependency on China is mirrored in Turkmenistan’s commerce with Beijing. The overwhelming majority of the $10 billion in annual bilateral commerce is made up of Turkmen exports, principally of pure fuel.

This dynamic appears set to extend additional, with yearly commerce turnover rising some 53 % in 2022 and Ashgabat trying to renew Chinese language assist for a further pipeline transporting Turkmen fuel throughout Central Asia to China.

Analysts, nevertheless, warning that Berdymukhammedov has few playing cards to play in talks with Beijing, particularly as Turkmenistan continues to grapple with a lingering financial disaster within the type of rampant inflation, rising poverty, and elevated meals insecurity.

Many particulars across the two international locations’ power ties stay opaque, however the Turkmen aspect could also be trying to shore up the phrases of its association with Beijing in hopes of stabilizing its unsure funds, analysts say.

“We don’t know all of the phrases, lengths, or costs in relation to fuel [contracts] with China,” Luca Anceschi, a professor of Eurasian Research on the College of Glasgow, informed RFE/RL. “The hope for Turkmenistan is to get some continuity with China and guarantee that the circulate of fuel stays regular.”

A Restricted Balancing Act

Berdymukhammedov final met Xi in September on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Group (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan. The Chinese language chief’s first journey overseas because the begin of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the go to marked Beijing’s symbolic give attention to Central Asia.

For the Turkmen chief, solidifying and increasing relations with Beijing are a key precedence, analysts say.

As power ties with Russia — which was the cornerstone of Turkmenistan’s overseas coverage following the collapse of the Soviet Union — got here below pressure and finally deteriorated within the mid-2000s, Ashgabat turned to Beijing in hopes of offsetting its reliance on Russian pipelines to entry markets.

This culminated within the opening of the China-Central Asia pipeline community in 2009, which boosted ties between the 2 international locations and noticed China turn into the only purchaser of pure fuel from Turkmenistan for a interval.

Anceschi says this was a turning level that set the stage for Ashgabat’s present predicament.

Pure fuel exports account for many of Turkmenistan’s revenues. The nation has grappled with market fluctuations and repaying China for the debt it incurred for constructing the pipeline, which reduce into its fuel revenues.

“The issue is that Turkmenistan doesn’t have many worldwide companions,” Anceschi stated. “However the calculations are totally different for the regime. The nationwide curiosity is outlined by way of a slim elite that oversees this authoritarian and kleptocratic system — and counting on one giant associate like China nonetheless permits them to pursue this agenda.”

Nonetheless, Turkmenistan has made makes an attempt to higher insulate itself from its reliance on the Chinese language market.

Whereas China stays the nation’s high power consumer, Russia has resumed shopping for some Turkmen fuel in recent times. Since Berdymukhammedov succeeded his father, Ashgabat has additionally accelerated its outreach to the Kremlin, with the Turkmen chief making his first journey overseas to Moscow in June to satisfy with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“It’s clear that Serdar [Berdymukhammedov] has prioritized outreach to Russia since coming to energy,” Raffaello Pantucci, a senior fellow at London’s Royal United Providers Institute and on the S. Rajaratnam College of Worldwide Research in Singapore, informed RFE/RL. “It reveals what they’re attempting to do when it comes to opening up new routes and attempting to diversify their companions.”

Pipe Goals

Nonetheless, analysts say, there are limits on how a lot Russia, which can also be a provider of pure fuel to China, can assist Ashgabat steadiness its dependence on Beijing — a dynamic that’s more likely to play out throughout Berdymukhammedov’s go to.

In 2021, China invested in new wells at Turkmenistan’s Galkynysh fuel area. Ashgabat can also be hoping Beijing will speed up the enlargement of a pipeline community that might convey extra of the nation’s fuel to the Chinese language market.

The present community to China is made up of three parallel pipelines — referred to as Line A, B, and C — that run from Turkmenistan by way of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Round 80 % of the fuel that flows by way of the pipelines is from Turkmenistan. Berdymukhammedov is now trying to flip the brand new part of the community — Line D — into actuality.

The fourth line will observe a distinct route by way of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan to China, nevertheless it faces a number of logistical, technological, and political roadblocks which have delayed it for practically a decade.

Nonetheless, Ashgabat is raring to forge forward as the brand new pipeline would improve exports by way of the Central Asia-China fuel community by 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) to a possible capability of 85 bcm yearly. That would supply further income for the cash-strapped Turkmen authorities.

Beijing has provided public assist for the enterprise and the China Nationwide Petroleum Company will reportedly finance its building.

However China is in no hurry for the pipeline to return on-line. Turkmenistan’s fuel exports to China by way of the present pipeline community have but to be maximized. Beijing additionally has a various set of pure fuel suppliers around the globe, with Russia additionally sending fuel through pipeline and Australia being a high exporter of liquefied pure fuel.

Analysts say this imbalance offers Turkmenistan little leverage because it presses for extra favorable pricing on fuel and speedier timelines within the building of future pipelines.

Anceschi provides that, regardless of these obstacles, China nonetheless stays an interesting associate for Ashgabat.

“This stage of dependence right here could also be astounding to an outdoor observer, nevertheless it matches effectively with the concept that Turkmenistan’s overseas coverage is about retaining elites in energy,” he stated. “They should have a certain quantity of power income whereas not being too uncovered internationally, and this leaves China as the primary possibility.”