Sri Lanka eye history against imperfect India

Batting common on this sequence: India 27.1, Sri Lanka, 22.9

These numbers are a mere mirage. The sequence has been a lot nearer than the batting common of the 2 sides suggests. Sri Lanka misplaced the primary T20I by solely two runs and gained the second recreation in Pune handsomely by 16 runs. 

The India-Sri Lanka has been one of many extra lop-sided rivalries of late. India maintain a win share of 73% in Assessments, 76.9% in ODIs and 68.2% in T20Is over Sri Lanka since 2015. But, the Island nation has discovered methods of upsetting the Males in Blue, a minimum of within the shortest format. In 2021, they defeated a younger India squad 2-1 within the T20I sequence at dwelling. Now, with a powerful victory in Pune, Sri Lanka are eyeing their first T20I sequence win on Indian soil, which may even be their first-ever bilateral sequence win in India in any format. 

Will probably be an enormous win for certain given India’s unbeaten streak at dwelling. The Males in Blue final misplaced a T20I sequence at dwelling in opposition to Australia in 2019 and have been unbeaten in 11 dwelling sequence since then. Sri Lanka is the final facet anybody would have anticipated to interrupt that run. And that’s what makes the series-decider in Rajkot a mouth-watering contest. 

Issues to be careful for

The sequence has adopted an attention-grabbing sample. The highest-order of each side have struggled to supply the products. India have suffered two top-order lapses, ending their powerplay at 41/2 in Mumbai and 39/4 in Pune. Their high 5 collectively common 16 at a strike-rate of 115.9. The corresponding numbers for Sri Lanka are 18.6 and 120.8. In Pune, they’d three batters scoring in extra of 30 nevertheless it required one other Dasun Shanaka blitz on the finish to get them to a match-winning rating. 

On the similar time, the decrease middle-order has stepped up large time for each side. Because of Axar Patel in each video games alongside Deepak Hooda and Shivam Mavi as soon as every, India’s quantity six, seven and eight have struck at 170.3 whereas averaging 57.3. Sri Lanka have additionally had a number of heroes in these slots – Dasun Shanaka, Chamika Karunaratne and Wanindu Hasaranga. They’ve averaged 52 at a strike-rate of 181.3. 

Rajkot is anticipated to supply extra batting-friendly situations and it will likely be attention-grabbing to see if this unusual sample surfaces for the third time in as many video games. 

Additionally, India can be cautious of Arshdeep Singh’s kind. After a layoff resulting from sickness within the first T20I, the left-arm seamer delivered 5 no-balls in Pune to be smashed across the park for 37 runs in his two overs. Within the first 11 video games of his younger profession as but, he managed a thrifty economic system of seven.2 on the loss of life. Within the subsequent 11 video games, he has splurged at 12.6 runs per over on the loss of life. 

For Sri Lanka, Maheesh Theekshana has tapered off in the previous couple of video games. Since October 2022, his bowling common has soared as much as 26.4 runs per wicket.

Pitch & Circumstances

Rajkot’s Saurashtra Cricket Affiliation (SCA) Stadium has identified to be a batting paradise however issues had been slightly totally different through the 2022/23 Syed Mushtaq Ali Trophy (SMAT) which led to November. The batting common was 24.8, someplace in the course of the desk amongst all SMAT venues. Furthermore, spinners made merry, selecting 42.2% of the overall wickets to fall on the venue. Sri Lanka will likely be better off if that pattern follows with two world-class spinners in Theekshana and Hasaranga. 

Additionally, 9 of the 15 T20s in Rajkot have been gained by the group batting second. In the meantime, this sequence has seen the chasing group on the shedding facet in each video games. 

Tactical Nous 

– Again of a size troubles Kusal Mendis. In T20Is since 2022, the right-handed batter averages solely 16.7 with six dismissals on again of a size deliveries in opposition to pacers. Indian pacers, nevertheless, have been fairly beneficiant to him. They’ve bowled 43 deliveries to Mendis on this sequence out of which solely 9 have been at that troublesome size. Mendis has a false-shot share of 55.5 on these 9 deliveries. 

– India must discover a technique to cease the blitzkrieg of Shanaka. The Sri Lankan skipper averages 129 in opposition to India at a strike-rate of 198.5 in six innings versus the Males in Blue since 2022. 

Shanaka has a shocker of a document in opposition to off-spinners. In general T20Is, the 31-year-old averages solely 8 in opposition to off-spinners (strike-rate 88.9) with eight dismissals. On this interval of Shanaka’s purple patch since 2022, India have bowled all however solely two balls of off-spin in opposition to him. That they had a terrific alternative in every of the primary two T20Is of this sequence the place Shanaka’s entry level was earlier than the loss of life overs. India had the choice of Deepak Hooda which they surprisingly have not explored sufficient. If the pitch certainly has some help for the spinners and Shanaka is compelled to bat earlier than the sixteenth over mark, there’s each case for India to bowl Hooda in opposition to the Sri Lanka skipper. 

Possible XIs 

India

As the top coach Rahul Dravid spoke after the Pune recreation, India aren’t seeking to make adjustments to the incumbent XI. Until there are injures, we are able to see India discipline the identical XI. 

Shubman Gill, Ishan Kishan (wk), Rahul Tripathi, Suryakumar Yadav, Hardik Pandya ( c ), Deepak Hooda, Axar Patel, Shivam Mavi, Arshdeep Singh, Umran Malik, Yuzvendra Chahal.

Sri Lanka

Bhanuka Rajapaksa’s lean patch continued in Pune. Sri Lanka can both exchange him with the right-handed batter Sadeera Samarawickrama or proceed with the identical group. 

Pathum Nissanka, Kusal Mendis (wk), Dhananjaya de Silva, Charith Asalanka, Bhanuka Rajapaksa, Dasun Shanaka ( c ), Wanindu Hasaranga, Chamika Karunaratne, Maheesh Theekshana, Lahiru Kumara, Dilshan Madushanka.