Changes to Indus Water Treaty Could Raise Hostility Between India, Pakistan – The Diplomat

In an surprising growth, India issued a discover to Pakistan in January to amend the 1960 Indus Water Treaty. For Pakistan’s policymakers, the Indian transfer is geared toward threatening Pakistan with unilateral modifications to the treaty if Islamabad doesn’t accommodate New Delhi’s pursuits and initiatives on the Indus and its tributaries.

The Indian strategy is extremely problematic and will result in confrontation and long-term implications for each India and Pakistan.

The Indus Water Treaty allots the water of the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan and of the japanese rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India. The treaty, which was mediated by the World Financial institution, is taken into account one of many nice success tales of water diplomacy globally. It has not solely efficiently survived numerous main and smaller battles between India and Pakistan but additionally emerged as a logo of cooperation between the 2 international locations.

Nonetheless, this might not be the case anymore. India appears to have determined the Indus Water Treaty is a brand new means to coerce Pakistan.

In November 2016, Prime Minister Narendra Modi talked about not permitting even a drop of water to succeed in Pakistan from the japanese rivers. India’s proposed initiatives on the japanese and western rivers have raised suspicions in Pakistan that New Delhi could not adhere to the treaty any longer.

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The most recent Indian transfer asking Pakistan for renegotiation of the treaty is a sign that India seems to be prepared to go so far as ending the function of the World Financial institution as an arbitrator and facilitator within the settlement.

If India unilaterally terminates the settlement, maybe as a result of it now not fits its pursuits, Pakistan might be pressured into adopting the same hostile perspective. As an example, Pakistan may elevate the stakes throughout the Line of Management (LoC) and elsewhere, together with Afghanistan. Greater than something, the event could completely shut the door for negotiations between the 2 international locations.

Arguably, Pakistan has no different choice however to maintain the Indus Water Treaty intact. New Delhi wants to know that the water treaty is Pakistan’s lifeline and that ending the decades-long established order in place as a result of settlement may stem a brand new wave of instability within the area.

Up to now, India has contemplated utilizing the treaty to place stress on Pakistan. If the transfer is geared toward the same goal, it is going to show counterproductive but once more.

There are latest examples exhibiting that talks between the 2 international locations can work if either side decide to it. As an example, in February 2021, Pakistan and India recommitted themselves to the 2003 ceasefire settlement on the LoC and mutually agreed to sort out the “core points” that would undermine peace and stability. That settlement has lasted virtually two years now and is prone to maintain within the months to come back as either side profit from it.

For a while now, India has not had the chance to make claims of cross-border terrorism emanating from Pakistan as the difficulty most likely doesn’t exist anymore.

Former Pakistan Military Chief Basic Qamar Javed Bajwa reportedly pushed for rapprochement with India, significantly throughout his second time period in workplace. It was reportedly a part of these efforts that resulted in former Director-Basic of Inter-Providers Intelligence (DG-ISI) Lt. Basic Faiz Hameed and India’s Nationwide Safety Advisor Ajit Doval assembly in 2021 to debate Modi’s go to to Pakistan and the reopening of bilateral commerce.

Nonetheless, the go to didn’t materialize. It was throughout Bajwa’s tenure as military chief that India by accident fired a missile at Pakistan, a large mistake that was commendably handed by each international locations as a result of backchannel conversations.

The important thing takeaway right here is that each one of this labored whereas Pakistan and India remained declared enemies and continued to publicly air hostility towards one another.

Many in Islamabad imagine India’s threats on the Indus Water Treaty are supposed to strengthen Modi’s electoral prospects because the nation nears common elections. Up to now, Modi’s Bhartiya Janata Get together (BJP) has resorted to comparable rhetoric to shine on the polls. This political logic means that Pakistan ought to count on a extra charged rhetoric from Modi on points just like the Indus Water Treaty within the months to come back.

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Even when Modi deems it essential to resort to such problematic rhetoric for electoral causes, Pakistan mustn’t take the bait. Islamabad ought to keep away from resorting to comparable acrimony towards India.

Extra importantly, each international locations mustn’t shut backchannel talks that have been going down months in the past. For dialogue to work, communications channels must be saved open, which isn’t taking place in the meanwhile. It’s time for each international locations to construct on the excellent dialogue that occurred a while in the past relatively than making efforts to finish the boldness that will have been developed attributable to these latest efforts.