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Congress chief Rahul Gandhi. FILE/AFP.
New Delhi: The Lok Sabha elections of 2024 usually are not the query; that mark stands pushed a decade away to 2034 as a result of that’s when Congress scion Rahul Gandhi will be capable to contest a seat within the Lok Sabha if his conviction by a Surat court docket in a defamation case from 2019 stands attraction in the next court docket.
The conviction carries a jail time period of two years, however Rahul Gandhi is not going to go to a jail instantly as he has been given bail for 30 days to attraction in opposition to the decision. He stands disqualified from membership of the Lok Sabha with impact from the date of conviction.
That is consistent with the Illustration of Folks Act. Additionally, the legislation lays down that he stays disqualified for one more six years after serving his time, on this case two years. Rahul Gandhi’s disqualification, subsequently, stands for eight years.
Once more, legally talking Gandhi is definitely transfer the next court docket in opposition to his conviction. He should get the conviction stayed or overturned to avoid wasting his membership. It’s then that he can attraction to the India courts in opposition to the Parliament’s determination to disqualify him.
What if the conviction stands?
First issues first. Rahul Gandhi is 52 years outdated. If the conviction—subsequently the disqualification—stands, then he absolutely won’t be able to contest within the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Do the mathematics, it’s easy. He’s additionally going to heat the benches within the 2029 Normal Elections of India.
He could be eligible to be fielded as soon as once more within the electoral battle of India solely within the Lok Sabha elections of 2034.
Rahul Gandhi, sometimes called a Younger Turk even at 52, shall be all of 63 by then. That’s about as outdated as Indira Gandhi in 1981, her triumphant ‘Garibi Hataao’ comeback. Mrs Gandhi was 49 when she first grew to become prime minister. Her son Rajiv was 40 when he stuffed her sneakers in 1984.
Additionally Learn: Rahul Gandhi no extra an MP
Rahul Gandhi is thus virtually out of the race for main the Congress, or any Opposition formation led by Congress and naturally the prime ministerial race.
Think about the dynamics throughout the Congress now. Not that there haven’t been voices of protest (rise up because the Gandhi household has chosen to see them) in opposition to the management of the Gandhis.
Ghulam Nabi Azad is out. Sachin Pilot is hanging by a thread. Jyotiraditya Scindia has lengthy jumped ship and is doing fairly properly within the saffron fold. Have a look at what occurred with Captain Amarinder Singh and Punjab, the monkey balancing in Himachal Pradesh, the slackening of reins in Karnataka. The record is lengthy.
The Gandhi excessive command put in loyalist Mallikarjun Kharge as occasion president in sham occasion elections, to the utter chagrin of Shashi Tharoor, to root out any problem from inside.
Additionally Learn: Why Rahul Gandhi faces speedy disqualification?
This conviction and the ensuing elimination of Rahul Gandhi from the electoral, subsequently, the political entrance is just going to re0ignite the anti-Gandhi fireplace throughout the Congress. This would be the excellent alternative for the Gandhi-baiters to reshape the Congress management. This would be the likelihood for the darkish horses to win the race.
Given this sturdy risk, a logical extension is the Balkanisation of the Congress: extra regional break-ups, extra events spinning off Congress powered by the dissatisfaction with the Gandhi excessive command and its iron clutches on the occasion.
Simply indicative, Sachin Pilot, for example, shall be 55 in 2034.
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