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Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong ought to deal with navigating his nation by means of the stormy sea of hostility between the US and China. He shouldn’t spend an excessive amount of effort on the lesser quarrel over the home of his father, Singapore’s first Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew.
On March 20 and 22, there was debate in Singapore Parliament on issues associated to Prime Minister Lee’s youthful brother Lee Hsien Yang and Hsien Yang’s spouse Lee Suet Fern. Hsien Yang, a former company chief, and Suet Fern, a company lawyer, live exterior their nation whereas underneath investigation by Singapore police for suspected deceitful behaviour associated to the late Lee Kuan Yew’s will. This can be a continuation of the feud which broke into public in 2017, when Hsien Yang and his sister Lee Wei Ling printed allegations on Fb in opposition to their brother over their father’s home in Oxley Highway. Prime Minister Lee has denied their allegations.
A metaphorical imaginative and prescient has come to my thoughts. I’ve pictured Hsien Loong, Hsien Yang, Wei Ling and Suet Fern as little youngsters squabbling in a village (which the Malays name a kampong) which represents Singapore, like an illustration by the Malaysian cartoonist Lat. Within the background, there loomed two towering dinosaurs, symbolizing the US and China, snarling malevolently at one another like a scene in a Godzilla film. As an alternative of getting mired on this household squabble, Prime Minister Lee ought to look to the bigger hazard of the potential conflict of the titans.
Tensions between the US and China have risen to a stage the place battle between them over Taiwan has grow to be an actual chance. As a Singaporean, I dread the implications for my nation ought to battle escape.
If these two superpowers go to battle, it is going to have a devastating impression on Singapore and the world, for the reason that US and China are the world’s largest and second largest financial system respectively. Singapore is very dependent economically on each international locations. With the shut cooperation between the Singapore Armed Forces and US forces in addition to the presence of many mainland Chinese language in my nation, any battle between the US and China could spill over to Singapore. Singaporean troopers are stationed in Taiwan and danger getting caught within the crossfire ought to the US and China trade hearth over the Taiwan Strait.
Geopolitics and historical past
There’s a geopolitical cause that the dispute over the Lee patriarch’s home is doubtlessly unhealthy for Singapore. A partial parallel is offered in historical past. Within the early 19th century earlier than the arrival of the British, Singapore was managed by the Sultan of Johor. In 1811, Sultan Mahmud Shah III of Johor died. The eldest son, Hussein, was away from Johor on the time, so the youthful son, Abdul Rahman, took benefit of his absence and ascended the throne. In November 1818, Abdul Rahman signed a treaty with Holland which expanded Dutch management of the Straits of Malacca. When Stamford Raffles, an official of the British East India Firm, arrived in Singapore in January 1819, he couldn’t get approval to arrange a British buying and selling put up in Singapore from Abdul Rahman, who was allied with the Dutch. So Raffles introduced Hussein to Singapore and declared him Sultan of Johor. On February 6, 1819, Raffles signed a treaty with Sultan Hussein and the native chieftain (Temenggong), which paved the way in which for Britain’s colonization of Singapore. Amidst competitors between Holland and Britain, Raffles used the rivalry between the 2 royal brothers to acquire Singapore for the British. Exploiting native rivalries was a playbook of European empires to achieve territory.
There are similarities between this little bit of historical past and Singapore in the present day. The loss of life of the Sultan of Johor sparked a dispute between his two sons over who would succeed him. After Singapore’s founding Prime Minister died on March 23, 2015, a public feud broke out between his sons. The Straits of Malacca was a strategic level of competition between Holland and Britain throughout the Raffles’ time and is so presently between the US and China.
After all, there are variations between the earlier state of affairs and now. The 2 sons of the late Sultan competed for the throne, however the two sons of the late Lee should not contending for management of the nation. Though Hsien Yang is reportedly contemplating working for the largely ceremonial put up of president, he has no political aspirations.
Within the early 19th century, the British backed one royal brother in opposition to one other brother supported by the Dutch. Nevertheless, the notion of the US supporting one Lee brother in opposition to one other Lee brother backed by China is outlandish and won’t occur. Prime Minister Lee shouldn’t be a vassal of the US or China, whereas Hsien Yang shouldn’t be a device of any overseas energy.
However, if Prime Minister Lee’s power is sapped by his household battle, Washington and Beijing may probably understand him as a weakened chief. A robust and united management will higher preserve Singapore’s stance of not selecting between the 2 superpowers.
Furthermore, the dispute among the many Lees beforehand attracted the curiosity of China. In June 2017, Chinese language state media and netizens seized on the feud between Prime Minister Lee and his siblings to criticise Singapore’s management, At the moment reported on June 16, 2017. A commentary within the International Instances, a nationalistic Chinese language newspaper, on June 15, 2017 claimed, “The assault launched on Lee Hsien Loong by his two siblings to some extent represents the dissatisfactions of the liberals and opposition events in opposition to the ‘central curiosity group’ constructed up by Lee Hsien Loong, which can result in the outburst of conflicts in Singapore.”
On June 17, 2017, one other Chinese language state-owned newspaper, China Each day, ran an article with a headline that was unfriendly in direction of Prime Minister Lee. The headline mentioned, “Singapore PM followers flame of household feud.”
Chinese language newspapers make statements on main points solely with Beijing’s consent. In my view, the above articles by the International Instances and China Each day deviated from China’s coverage of not interfering in different nations’ affairs. If the dispute over the Oxley home escalates, Chinese language state media could probably touch upon this matter once more, which will likely be incorrect for my part. With the US and China contesting for affect within the Straits of Malacca and Singapore because the Dutch and British did two centuries in the past, it’s higher for Singapore’s chief to not be distracted by household issues.
If Prime Minister Lee can efficiently navigate Singapore by means of the fraught Sino-US tensions, he can stay in workplace for some time, however not more than two years.
On July 27, a At the moment article quoted Prime Minister Lee saying, “I had expressed the hope that I’d be capable of hand over by the point I have a good time my seventieth birthday. However I don’t decide the trail of the Covid-19 pandemic, and it’ll additionally rely upon how occasions unfold.”
“And all I can say is, I’ll see this by means of. And I’ll hand over in fine condition as quickly as attainable to the following group, and into good fingers,” he added.
Prime Minister Lee is now 71 and the COVID1-9 pandemic is basically over. So he shouldn’t serve many extra years.
Nevertheless, if managing US-China hostility proves an excessive amount of for him, Prime Minister Lee ought to retire honourably someday this 12 months and never contest within the subsequent basic elections. A lesson for him is offered by the late Lyndon Johnson, who introduced he wouldn’t proceed as US President in a speech on March 31, 1968. At the moment, Johnson was deeply unpopular with Individuals as a result of hundreds of American troopers had been dying within the Vietnam battle.
In that televised speech, Johnson mentioned, “With America’s sons within the fields distant, with America’s future underneath problem proper right here at dwelling, with our hopes and the world’s hopes for peace within the stability day by day, I don’t imagine that I ought to commit an hour or a day of my time to any private partisan causes or to any duties apart from the superior duties of this workplace–the Presidency of your nation. Accordingly, I shall not search, and I cannot settle for, the nomination of my social gathering for one more time period as your President.”
As an alternative of getting absorbed in household points and partisan politics, Prime Minister Lee ought to, like Johnson, commit himself to “the superior duties of this workplace”.
Toh Han Shih is chief analyst of Headland Intelligence, a Hong Kong danger consulting agency. The opinions expressed on this article are his personal. /TISG
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