Kazakhstan and Afghanistan Seek to Realign Bilateral Ties – The Diplomat

In early March, Afghanistan’s international minister, Mawlavi Amir Khan Muttaqi, met with Kazakh Ambassador to Afghanistan Alimkhan Yessengeldiyev and agreed to broaden bilateral cooperation within the transport sector. Excessive on the agenda was growing the railway system in Afghanistan. Muttaqi requested technical assist from Kazakhstan for brand new rail line building.

Kazakhstan has expressed curiosity in collaborating within the reconstruction and improvement of Afghanistan’s infrastructure, particularly within the areas of transport, power, and agriculture. This comes amid efforts to reconnect Afghanistan to world commerce and Kazakhstan’s makes an attempt to develop into a mediator within the area. An off-the-cuff assembly between Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev was held previous to the Muttaqi-Yessengeldiyev settlement, and Afghanistan was central to their dialogue.

Afghanistan is the third largest purchaser of Kazakh grain. The Afghan market historically occupies a big share within the export of grain and flour from Kazakhstan. In 2022 Kazakhstan exported 1.36 million tonnes of wheat flour to Afghanistan, 52 p.c greater than in 2021, in accordance with APK-Inform, a Central Asian agricultural analytical website. 

In 2018 a rail route from Kazakhstan to Afghanistan was opened for visitors. The Kostanay-Bolashak-Serhetabad (Turkmenistan) rail route is greater than 3,500 kilometers lengthy. It traverses by the Kazakh metropolis of Bolashak and the Turkmen metropolis of Serhetabad, the place it crosses the border with Afghanistan to Herat.

In 2022 plans have been mentioned between Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan for the building of a grain terminal and elevator on the Turkmen-Afghan border. This grain provide route by way of Turkmenistan is being promoted by Kazakhstan as a result of it bypasses Uzbekistan, which in accordance with KazAgro, the nationwide grain operator, has historically imposed excessive charges for the transit of grain by Uzbekistan to Afghanistan. Nonetheless, no Kazakh railroads have been laid but in Afghanistan. Uzbekistan has been the one nation to this point that has constructed and managed a railway line in Afghanistan.

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Advancing this cross-border transport improvement is critical to forestall a humanitarian disaster and financial collapse in Afghanistan. Certainly the Afghan problem has created a tough new actuality for Kazakhstan and the area as an entire. Central Asian governments see Afghanistan as each a risk and a possibility.

Underpinning this notion is Afghanistan’s place on the coronary heart of the area. This has resulted in concerted efforts by nations to align their coverage in partaking with Afghanistan.

With Russia’s battle in Ukraine and Western sanctions on Russia, in addition to the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, Central Asia has been compelled to make its personal contingency plans relating to safety and commerce. In mild of this, Kazakhstan and the opposite Central Asia republics have pursued a technique with Afghanistan primarily based on the idea that cooperation and engagement would promote stability. A technique they’ve been going about that is by opening up and testing transport corridors by the nation. An instance of that is the Uzbek-led Trans-Afghan railway mission.

For Kazakhstan, supporting financial improvement alongside the north-south axis would see Afghanistan turning into a bridge, not a barrier. On this imaginative and prescient, Kazakhstan hopes to be the convener, facilitator, and engine for change by prying open bodily and diplomatic bottlenecks.

The advantages attained by cooperation between Afghanistan and Kazakhstan are apparent for all to see. There’s a mutual curiosity on each side for cooperation, because the Taliban can’t afford long-term isolation. Financial positive factors from expanded commerce and funding would assist diversify Kazakhstan’s transport corridors and bolster Afghanistan’s integration efforts with the broader regional and worldwide group.

That stated, Kazakh pursuits in Afghanistan are challenged by the acute home fragility of the nation and the chance of sanctions. Safety has remained a key concern within the area, and regardless of Taliban assurances terrorist exercise stays excessive and widespread. 

This has been a key problem for Kazakhstan and has been mirrored in Kazakhstan’s efforts to request exterior assist on the Afghan problem. By means of the Moscow-led Collective Safety Treaty Group (CSTO), Kazakhstan has been airing its issues over the unstable state of affairs in Afghanistan and has advised that the CSTO ought to enhance its give attention to securing Central Asia’s southern borders. Different Central Asian nations have expressed the identical concern, and the Afghan problem has introduced them collectively. Nonetheless, fault traces have emerged, with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan each vying for the mediator function of the area and adopting their very own means of working with the Taliban. 

With strain from sanctions, any sort of financial interplay with the Taliban authorities poses a reputational threat to Kazakhstan’s relations with the West. Given the dimensions of Western involvement in Kazakhstan, significantly in its oil and fuel sector, that is one thing that might should be thought-about by the Kazakh authorities.

All that stated, transport improvement is seen as key to each Kazakhstan and Afghanistan’s financial future. Safety will proceed to be a problem however with out cooperation between Kazakhstan and Afghanistan, the prospects for stability in Central Asia are pretty slim. The spillover impact that might outcome from an remoted and weak Afghanistan is a threat that Kazakhstan would wish to keep away from given the January 2022 protests. Kazakhstan should play a key function in restoring commerce and communications, and in remodeling Afghanistan right into a route for licit slightly than illicit commerce between Central Asia and South Asia.

A lot stays to be performed, nevertheless, and Kazakhstan in addition to the opposite Central Asian states will proceed to behave in and round Afghanistan, pursuing their nationwide pursuits as they see them. Wanting forward, Kazakhstan ought to pursue its need for cooperation with eyes huge open to make sure that within the means of in search of peace and financial profit, they don’t obtain simply the alternative.