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By Nitya Chakraborty
Only one yr is left for the holding of the Lok Sabha elections scheduled for April/Might 2024. The non-BJP opposition events are having discussions for constructing a complete unity of the opposition political events who’re decided to take away Prime Minister Narendra Modi from energy on the coming Lok Sabha polls. This may be performed by the opposition getting by itself majority seats out of the full of 543 or within the case of a hung Lok Sabha, by becoming a member of with the opposite fence sitting non-BJP events to disclaim the Prime Minister one other time period because the chief of the BJP led NDA.
Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar had in depth discussions with the opposition leaders early this month. His talks with the Congress Occasion together with Rahul Gandhi have been most encouraging. He talked of complete opposition unity earlier than the polls. Rahul Gandhi has proven no large brother perspective throughout discussions. On the occasion of Rahul Gandhi, Congress normal secretary Ok C Venugopal met the Shiv Sena faction chief Uddhav Thackeray and each of them expressed their want to proceed to work for constructing a entrance in opposition to the BJP. Nitish Kumar will probably be assembly different leaders together with Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee, BRS chief Ok Chandrasekhar Rao and BJD chief Naveen Patnaik.
Now allow us to take a look at the laborious actuality of the political scenario within the states. It seems to be politically right to speak of 1 opposition candidate in opposition to one BJP candidate however in sensible phrases that’s not potential in lots of states taking into consideration the energy of the regional events as additionally the nationwide events. The character of alliance will fluctuate from state to state within the Lok Sabha elections. There can’t be any uniform formulation to be imposed on the opposition events together with the Congress. With this in thoughts, efforts will be made by the opposition events to search out out areas of optimum understanding between the contesting opposition events so that there’s most mobilisation of non-BJP votes in opposition to the involved BJP candidate.
Proper now, in 4 states Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Maharashtra and Jharkhand, the opposition alliance is working positive. Excepting Maharashtra, the alliance is ruling within the different three states. This may stay earlier than the Lok Sabha polls. In truth, this may be additional expanded if the leaders really feel it needed.
Then there are states the place the Congress is the dominant opposition celebration as in opposition to the BJP. These embody Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Himachal. In these states, the Congress will probably be deciding celebration in respect of the Lok Sabha seats. Proper now, the Congress is ruling celebration in Himachal, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. The state meeting elections are happening in Karnataka on Might 10 and within the different states excepting Himachal later this yr. Congress efficiency in Karnataka meeting ballot can have a catalytic impact on the ballot marketing campaign in different states by the tip of the yr.
Then there are one other group of states, the place the Congress is a weak political celebration in comparison with the regional events that are in energy. These states are Bengal, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. In Bengal, Trinamool Congress is able to struggle BJP alone and the state’s political scenario is that there isn’t any query of any understanding between the Left Entrance led by the CPI(M), the Congress and Trinamool to tackle BJP. TMC will struggle alone, the Left and the Congress can be a part of palms to struggle each. All of the three non-BJP events want to guard their political turf, so there isn’t any use speaking of anti-BJP alliance in Bengal.
In Telangana, BRS is being attacked each by the BJP and the Congress. BRS chief minister Ok Chandrasekhar Rao will strive his beat to defend the state within the subsequent meeting elections later this yr. The efficiency of the BRS within the meeting ballot will decide its subsequent plan of action. All indications recommend, will probably be troublesome to have an understanding between the BRS and the Congress earlier than the Lok Sabha polls. Andhra Pradesh case is completely different. YSRCP chief minister Jagan Mohan Reddy is taking a place in opposition to each the BJP and the Congress however he’s having good relations with the PM Narendra Modi. YSRCP will struggle by itself within the Lok Sabha polls and indications are that it’ll get majority of the Lok sabha seats.
As regards Odisha, BJD chief minister is apprehensive about BJP foray however he isn’t going to have any relations with the Congress within the Lok Sabha elections. Then Delhi and Punjab states are there dominated by AAP. In Delhi, BJP is the principle opposition celebration and in Punjab, Congress is the principle opposition celebration. AAP has no member in Lok Sabha now, Arvind Kejriwal will prefer to get elected most members to Lok sabha from Delhi and Punjab in 2024 to play a nationwide function. So there isn’t any query of any understanding with the Congress.
Then there’s the case of Kerala the place out of the 20 Lok Sabha seats, the Congress led UDF received 19 seats in 2019 Lok Sabha polls leaving just one seat to the ruling state celebration CPI(M). The CPI(M) will naturally struggle in 2024 polls with willpower to get some additional seats in order that its Lok Sabha tally will increase from the current 3. The hike in Left tally is necessary as a result of the Lok Sabha energy of a political celebration is of essential significance in taking part in a significant function within the submit election situation. The Left, particularly the CPI(M) had its golden interval after the 2004 Lok Sabha elections when the Left got61 seats, CPI(M) alone 41 and CPI-10. This large energy helped the Left to play probably the most outstanding function in putting in the Congress led authorities.. These days is not going to return, as even now, on the premise of its current energy the Left can’t hope to get any Lok sabha seat from Bengal in 2024 polls. All the extra seats have to return from Kerala.
In order that method, taking a sensible view of the state degree political situation, the opposition ought to comply with a versatile technique to unite the non-BJP opposition events on a typical platform which is able to give sufficient flexibility to the regional events to struggle the BJP on their very own. All indicators are there of a hung Lok sabha after 2024 Lok sabha polls. The opposition events might assessment the submit ballot situation and method the regional events like BJD and YSRCP for cooperation.
As soon as it’s clear that the BJP is just not coming again to energy, these events as additionally many events of the North East will change sides and prolong assist to the non-BJP authorities. For the principle opposition, the Congress, the victory in Karnataka meeting polls adopted by the opposite three states by yr finish is the surest assure to get the arrogance of the opposite regional events who doubted the Congress capability to defeat the BJP by itself. The mixed opposition has to take its steps with warning and knowledge. The bottom is fertile for bringing a couple of regime change in India after 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It now will depend on the political experience of the leaders of non-BJP opposition events to mobilise most non-BJP forces earlier than the 2024 Lok Sabha polls in order that the BJP’s variety of Lok Sabha seats will get decreased from the current 303 to 180 within the new Lok Sabha. (IPA Service)
The submit Overemphasis On Complete Opposition Unity Earlier than 2024 Lok Sabha Polls, Might Be Counter Productive first appeared on IPA Newspack.
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